SumanSpeaks: The Information Super Highway

The Copper Conundrum: Why the Red Metal Is Ripe for a Correction? ~Sumon Mûkhöpadhuæy ------------------------------- Synopsis: Copper prices surged to record territory in early 2026, driven by enthusiasm around AI data centers, electrification, and power-grid expansion. However, this article argues that the rally is increasingly disconnected from physical demand.  Weakening industrial consumption in China, rapid inventory build-ups across global exchanges, tariff-driven stockpiling in the US, and rising material substitution are creating visible stress beneath the “supercycle” narrative. While long-term demand from electrification remains structurally strong, the near-term outlook points toward a likely correction, with prices vulnerable to a reset toward more sustainable levels once speculative premiums fade. =========================== In early 2026, copper has emerged as the undisputed star of the commodities market. Often described as “the new gold,” prices surged into reco...

Market Pulse 2026: Execution Risk Meets Digital Opportunity. Synopsis: Reliance Power Ltd (Rs.27.91) remains a classic execution-driven utility story where operational stability and regulatory clarity will determine valuation recovery. Anant Raj Ltd (Rs.492), meanwhile, is steadily reshaping its identity through digital infrastructure and data-centre expansion, supported by strong Q3 FY26 financial momentum. This note separates operating visibility from market noise and highlights where long-term capital discipline matters most. ⚡ Reliance Power Ltd — Operational Visibility & Regulatory Lens Ticker: NSE: RPOWER | BSE: 532939 Reliance Power operates in a project-centric power generation model rather than a traditional EPC or defence-style “order book” structure. Revenue visibility is driven by plant availability, long-term power purchase agreements, fuel security, and regulatory stability rather than backlog disclosures. 🔹 Installed capacity:  Around 5,305 MW acr...

3i Infotech Ltd: Q3 FY26 Performance Analysis Status : Under-Watch (Operational Turnaround vs. Non-Operating Gains) Company Overview: Headquartered in Navi Mumbai, 3i Infotech is a mid-tier IT services firm specializing in digital transformation, cloud services, and infrastructure management. The key sectors include BFSI (Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance) and Healthcare. Q3FY26 Financial Snapshot Results declared on January 23, 2026. Figures in ₹ Crores. Metric Amount (₹ Cr) Key Takeaway Total Income 181.41 Modest 2.1% QoQ growth. Operating Profit 0.52 Razor-thin margins; core efficiency is low. EBITDA Margin 6.4% Improved from 3.1% in Q2 FY26. Profit After Tax (PAT) 40.60 ...

The “Speed Limit” of Reality: Why Light Is the Boundary of Existence? ~Sumon Mûkhöpadhuæy. ----------------------------------- ​Synopsis:  The "Causality" Firewall -- Why You Can’t Go Faster Than Light: What if the speed of light isn't just a physical barrier, but the very edge of reality? Discover the mind-bending concept of 'Causality' and why anything traveling faster than light would effectively cease to exist. A deep dive into the cosmic firewall that keeps our universe—and our time—from falling into chaos. -------------------------- We’ve all heard the rule since high school: nothing can travel faster than the speed of light. Usually, the explanation stops at equations — an object would become infinitely heavy, or require infinite energy. ​Technically correct. Philosophically… incomplete. ​ Recently, I came across a perspective shared by a brilliant (lady) thinker from the Czech Republic ( Ms.Magda Lusi -- the figure on the left hand side) on Facebook ,...

Beyond the Index: How India’s Mid and Small Caps Are Repricing — and Where Opportunity Is Emerging. (The quiet valuation reset beneath the headline indices) ~By SumanSpeaks | Reading the Signals from the January 2026 Market Cycle. --------------------------- Headline indices often tell a comforting story in neat numbers, but markets rarely move in straight lines. They move in fragments, pockets, and quiet rotations. Nowhere is this more visible than in India’s mid-cap and small-cap universe today. While the Nifty 50 has displayed relative stability, the broader market is undergoing a sharp internal reset. As of January 2026 , the median small-cap stock has declined by more than 25% from its peak, even as headline indices mask the depth of the correction with comparatively modest declines. 1. The Valuation Trap: Still “Expensive” on Average: Historically, the Nifty Midcap universe has averaged P/E multiples in the low-to-mid 20s. The current cycle, however, has stretched fa...

The January Jolt: Why FIIs Are Leaving — And What Nifty’s P/E Is Quietly Signalling. ~Sumon Mukhopadhyay  ---------- Indian equities opened 2026 on a mildly shaky footing. While domestic investors continue to show resilience, persistent selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) has unsettled short-term sentiment. FIIs have already withdrawn approximately ₹33,598 crore from Indian equities this month, contributing to a near 4% decline in the Nifty 50 since the start of January. Yet markets rarely move in straight lines. Beneath the headline volatility, valuation metrics and domestic liquidity flows suggest a more nuanced picture — less panic, more recalibration. The FII Exit: A Multi-Front Storm: Foreign investors are not pressing the sell button randomly. Several overlapping pressures are influencing capital flows: Global Trade Frictions: Uncertainty surrounding the US administration’s evolving tariff posture — including the so-called “Greenland Tariff” ...

When the Market Panics, Gold Whispers:  Rajesh Exports Ltd — Z-Group Panic or Hidden Gold Beneath the Noise? ~Sumon Mukhopadhyay  ------------------------------------------------ Finding value in the stock market often requires ignoring short-term panic and regulatory “naughty corners.” One such case currently stirring debate in Indian markets is Rajesh Exports Ltd (Rs.163.18). Headlines scream about its shift into the Z-group and a share price hovering near a 52-week low . Yet a deeper dive suggests the market may be discounting far more than the facts justify. The Retail Powerhouse: Shubh Jewellers The biggest blind spot in current valuation lies in ignoring a massive underlying asset — Shubh Jewellers . Rajesh Exports is not merely a refiner; it operates as a vertically integrated retail powerhouse. Valuation Buffer: Rising global gold prices automatically lift the inventory and real estate value of its retail footprint, especially across Karnataka. Th...

Bright Horizons — A Warmer Wind Blows Across India–US Trade Talks Location: Davos, Switzerland Date: January 22, 2026. ------------------------------ Overview: From the snowy corridors of the World Economic Forum in Davos came a distinctly warm signal for India–US relations — balmy enough to make a Swiss glacier reconsider its career choices. US President Donald Trump struck an upbeat note on the future of bilateral trade, expressing confidence that a “good deal” is well within reach. Diplomacy, it seems, is enjoying a rare moment of genuine chemistry. The tone from Davos suggests the world’s two largest democracies are finally moving from “it’s complicated” to “in a relationship.” Markets, naturally, are already RSVP-ing. Key Highlights from President Trump’s Remarks 🔹 Leadership Chemistry — The “Fantastic” Factor President Trump reiterated his “great respect” for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling him “a fantastic man and a friend of mine.” In global diplomacy, personal...

The $187 Billion "Thank You" Note: How America’s Tariff War Became a Self-Taxing Masterclass. ~Sumon Mûkhöpadhuæy. ------------------- Synopsis: America’s 2025 tariff experiment was supposed to make foreign exporters pay. Instead, a forensic study by Germany’s Kiel Institute reveals a brutal twist: 96% of the cost landed on American consumers — a $187 billion self-inflicted tax. As inflation quietly seeps into groceries, gadgets, and even electricity bills, geopolitics takes a theatrical detour through Greenland, before calming down at Davos. Meanwhile, global capital does what it always does — it migrates toward execution, stability, and infrastructure visibility. And increasingly, that compass points east. When trade walls go up, power lines and highways tend to sneak underneath. ============================== As we settle into 2026, the economic dust is finally clearing on the "Tariff Era" of 2025—and the view from the ground is sobering. While the campaign tra...

Resilience Amid Volatility: A Closer Look at Reliance Power and SEPC Ltd. ~Sumon Mukhopadhyay. ----------------------------------- Global markets are wobbling under tightening monetary policies, currency carry trade unwinding, and renewed tariff risks. Foreign capital flows have become selective, triggering short-term volatility even in fundamentally stable stocks. However, beneath this surface noise, several domestic-focused companies are strengthening balance sheets and sharpening execution discipline. Two such names attracting attention are Reliance Power (Rs.29.60) and SEPC Ltd (Rs.8.17). When Tokyo sneezes, Mumbai catches a cold — but strong balance sheets recover faster than headlines. Reliance Power: Deleveraging with a Green Pivot: Reliance Power has significantly reduced leverage after years of restructuring. Current estimates place consolidated debt-to-equity near 0.8–0.9 , substantially healthier than historical levels within the Indian power sector. Strat...