WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd, asked to buy yesterday, hit the buyer freeze today. The company would benefit from the recent developments in the media industry.

Ennore Coke Ltd, came out of the freeze as profit booking was advised in the counter. The company came out with superb set of numbers for the Q2FY10.

ITL Industries Ltd (BSE Code: 522183) recommended this week around Rs.29-Rs.30 (Report at: www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com) touched Rs.37.5 today, giving handsome returns to the members of the Paid Groups, who invested on the same.

XL Telecom and Energy Ltd hit another buyer freeze. The stock was asked to be accumulated around Rs.28--29, ranges. The company recently got a huge order. But there is another development in the company, what is that?

Sanguine Media Services Ltd clocked good volume as it closed flat with 100% delivery based buying taking place. What does it indicate?

Country Club India Ltd which came out with satisfactory set of numbers for Q2FY10 , also closed flat. On a standalone basis the company came out with good set of numbers. The total income of the company for Q2FY10, came out to be Rs.55.24 Cr as against Rs.74.19 Cr. The net profit of the company jumped to Rs.6.83 Cr in September, 2009 quarter (Q2FY10) as against Rs.34 lakhs in the same period previous year. The company has offices in Hyderabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Goa, Kolkata, Kovalam, Mumbai (Bombay), Delhi, Mangalore, Mysore, Ahmedabad, Dubai, Sri Lanka, etc. It is a huge company. For more details please visit: http://www.countryclubindia.net/home.php. For Q2FY10, results of the company please visit the announcement section of http://www.bseindia.com/ (CLICK HERE).

Country Club recently acquired a beautiful property in the ‘God’s Own Country’ Kovalam, Trivandrum, adjacent to the renowned Kovalam Beach. Just 8 Kms away from the city, Country Club Treasure Cove welcomes our esteemed members uniquely with Kerala Style. Aesthetically arranged Coconut Trees will give a real treat to your eyeballs. This Club is covered with lush greenery & whole lot of scintillating sceneries like Kovalam Beach, Sunrise, Sunset etc. The Country Club Chanakyapuri is a good distance drive from the main hustle bustle of the Kolkata city. Tucked in the periphery with greenscapes pleasing to the eye, its a huge resort loaded on facilities to make a perfect getaway for a family. Plans are on to have a Country Spa network chain to massage away stress and worries of the daily humdrum of life.Country Club (India) Limited. The Group's (Country Club India Ltd) principal activity is to provide entertainment and leisure services. It provides various facilities, such as health club, cottages, restaurants, business centre, swimming pool, spa, recreation park, shooting gallery, banquet halls, table tennis, beauty parlour, bar, conference halls, library, and billiards and snooker. The Group has strategic alliances with ICICI Bank, CITI Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, HDFC, HSBC, and ICICI Lombard General Insurance. What is interesting is that you would find the advertisement of Country Club India Ltd in Axis Bank (UTI Bank) Ltd's web-site.

The following is the advertisement given by Axis Bank Ltd on their web-site regading Country Club India Ltd: Click Here:

Country Club India Ltd.: Country Club India Ltd(CCIL) is one of the fastest growing entertainment and leisure conglomerate in India. CCIL has established 205 properties of which 50 are owned and 155 are franchised properties. Presently it has 172 plus affiliations plus a global gateway via Country Vacations and RCI affiliation of 4000 resorts for its esteemed members. CCIL provides a state-of-the-art Health Club, multi-cuisine restaurants, business centre, swimming pool and other facilities. The Offer Axis Bank Credit Cards brings you 0% EMI facility at Country Club. Just pay the bill value in EMI of 3, 6, 9 or 12 months. (NO extra charges like Processing Fees or Interest applicable) .

How to avail the offer: The customer should pay with his Axis Bank Credit Card at Country Club. During payment, the customer needs to indicate the choice of tenure. The customer can also avail EMI facility by calling up Country Club at these numbers. Click Here.

Moreover, the book value of the shares of Country Club India Ltd is Rs.84.96. With a market cap of only Rs.136.27 Cr and dividend of 20%, the stock looks extremely attractive for the short to medium term play.

Yesterday I talked of a report on Crude Oil in this Blog (web-site) and today you must have seen how the stock of ONGC Ltd behaved. The stock closed up more than 3% having touched Rs.1203.5, intra-day.

Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower

Exclusive: Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.

'There's suspicion the IEA has been influenced by the US' Link to this audioIn particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.

Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

The IEA acknowledges the importance of its own figures, boasting on its website: "The IEA governments and industry from all across the globe have come to rely on the World Energy Outlook to provide a consistent basis on which they can formulate policies and design business plans."

The British government, among others, always uses the IEA statistics rather than any of its own to argue that there is little threat to long-term oil supplies.

The IEA said tonight that peak oil critics had often wrongly questioned the accuracy of its figures. A spokesman said it was unable to comment ahead of the 2009 report being released tomorrow.

John Hemming, the MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas, said the revelations confirmed his suspicions that the IEA underplayed how quickly the world was running out and this had profound implications for British government energy policy.

He said he had also been contacted by some IEA officials unhappy with its lack of independent scepticism over predictions. "Reliance on IEA reports has been used to justify claims that oil and gas supplies will not peak before 2030. It is clear now that this will not be the case and the IEA figures cannot be relied on," said Hemming.

"This all gives an importance to the Copenhagen [climate change] talks and an urgent need for the UK to move faster towards a more sustainable [lower carbon] economy if it is to avoid severe economic dislocation," he added.

The IEA was established in 1974 after the oil crisis in an attempt to try to safeguard energy supplies to the west. The World Energy Outlook is produced annually under the control of the IEA's chief economist, Fatih Birol, who has defended the projections from earlier outside attack. Peak oil critics have often questioned the IEA figures.

But now IEA sources who have contacted the Guardian say that Birol has increasingly been facing questions about the figures inside the organisation.

Matt Simmons, a respected oil industry expert, has long questioned the decline rates and oil statistics provided by Saudi Arabia on its own fields. He has raised questions about whether peak oil is much closer than many have accepted.

A report by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) last month said worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and go into terminal decline before 2020 – but that the government was not facing up to the risk. Steve Sorrell, chief author of the report, said forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were "at best optimistic and at worst implausible".

But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one."

What was sent in the Sunday Report to the Paid Groups on XL Telecom and Energy Ltd:

Those who are holding XL Telecom and Energy Ltd can average at the current price, as the company seems to be recovering from the global slowdown. It is..........new rules in Spain. However, the company is looking at opportunities in other parts of Europe and we could soon hear about a large order [AND YESTERDAY IT SAID IT WON A HUGE ORDER of Rs. 235 millions for supply of Solar Photovoltaic Power Systems to Bharat Sand Nigam Limited or BSNL]. Moreover, its mega project is expected to be completed any time from now and hence what I feel is that bad days are over for the company. Those who ........should keep averaging so that the average price comes around Rs.XXX which seems to be the safe price for the scrip. The company though came out with loss in Q2FY10, but the results were much better speaking sequentially. Please do not go by what some peoples are saying about this company—they have no idea what they are speaking.These people are basically re-sellers of others’ Paid Services, at discounted rates.

XL Telecom & Energy Ltd meanwhile informed BSE that the Company had made a proposal to Corporate Debt Restructuring Cell (CDR Cell) for restructuring of the credit facilities. The CDR Cell at its meeting held on October 23, 2009 admitted the proposal for restructuring. The final terms of the restructuring package are being worked out and will be put up to the CDR Cell for final clearance. I am expecting the stock to cross at least Rs.XX in the next 2 months time frame. One big order from the Europe would set the stock rolling high.

I have talked with the sources, after such disturbing news coming in one of Yahoo Groups and they have expressed optimism that the crisis would be solved probably within in the 6 months time frame.

New development: XL Telecom & Energy Ltd has submitted to BSE a copy of the Press Release issued in respect of receipt of order valued worth Rs. 235 millions for supply of Solar Photovoltaic Power Systems to Bharat Sand Nigam Limited (BSNL).

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

Look at the large ear rings of our very own Mitali Mukherjee (the television anchor); Rumours has it that she collected them from a "Ring Master" of a Circus Company, who used them for "Tiger Jumps"

(Tigers used to jump through these "Rings of fire" according to market rumours, before they started decorating her ears...lol...)

Morning Call to the Paid Groups, Classic Diamonds Ltd (BSE Code: 523200) hit the buyer freeze on the news of the buoyancy in the Diamond Jewelery market.

Sanguine Media Ltd is consolidating at the current price and is clocking good volumes before major upmove. It was earlier mentioned that the company would start getting payments from this week for their work on 2 (two) Television Serials for Gemini TV (a division of reputed Sun TV Ltd). It is also expected to sign a contract with Godrej Ltd for its event management space. Hence please do not invest in the company looking at last quarter results, it will be simply erroneous.

Pyramid Saimira Theatres Ltd is getting unnecessarily HAMMERED and sold at a song as SEBI barred only some entities to trade in the stock. I do not understand why are investors selling out when it has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company. The company off late is doing reasonably well....The Company had 131.44 Lakhs footfalls inQ2FY10 with an average occupancy rate of 34.85%. Its relationship with RDB Industries Ltd (Kolkata based diversified company) is expected to bring new synergies for the company.

XL Telecom and Energy Ltd hit another buyer freeze due to some new developments in the company. The Paid Members were asked to accumulate the scrip at Rs.28 in the last week. Those who have done the same will be laughing their into banks.

Some good news are expected in Northgate Technologies Ltd and Country Club India Ltd. And a report on Geodesic Ltd (BSE Code: 503699) is being placed at www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com for your kind perusal.

Some thoughts on Pyramid Saimira Theatres Ltd

(Excepts of my morning mail to the Paid Groups)

Dear Suman ji,

Please tell me about PSTL as there is some bad news.I had purchased 350 shares on Monday. Should I average it out? Should i wait & watch?

Vikas Gupta,

Rohtak (Haryana),

India.

Vikash,

A very good morning and thanks for the query. Yes you are right, there are some news regarding Pyramid Saimira Theatres Ltd (PSTL), which is more related to share trading by some entities rather than the fundamentals of the company.

Now let us see what is the news which appeared in a section of media today:

Pyramid Saimira banned from trading

MUMBAI: The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) on Tuesday banned Pyramid Saimira Theatre Ltd. (PSTL) from dealing in stock markets for seven years after it found that the company colluded with seven persons to corner the portion reserved for employees in its initial public offer in 2006.

However, the company, when contacted, said it would file an appeal against the SEBI order.

As per SEBI investigations, seven persons had cornered 98.5 per cent of 4.22 lakh shares in the “employee category” in collusion with the company during the initial public offer of Pyramid Saimira Theatre which hit the market in December 2006. — PTI

Hence from the above you can clearly seen that, "(SEBI) on Tuesday banned Pyramid Saimira Theatre Ltd. (PSTL) from dealing in stock markets for seven years".

Then we get another news, "However, the company, when contacted, said it would file an appeal against the SEBI order."

Hence this is a effect-neutral news for the shareholders, who do not have to worry as long as RDB Industries Ltd is there, as one of the strategic investors in one of its divisions.

Also, I have mentioned earlier also, that such orders are in fact positive for the shareholders because in that case, we will be expecting a less manipulative trade by the promoters.

However, in this case the promoters have talked of filing an appeal and so that order does not have any effect at least in the short term.

There would be some knee jerk reactions, because many shareholders and investors might think that the shares/stocks of Pyramid Saimira could be DELISTED, WHICH IS JUST A FANTASY OF SORTS.

The company is doing excellently well and should come out with positive news within the next few months.

Moreover, the company would be there and so will be its promoters and other strategic investors. Those who have invested in the scrip should wait for the right opportunity to average it out when distress sellers, have had finished selling.

HENCE AT THIS STAGE PLEASE WAIT FOR THE SCRIP OF PYRAMID SAIMIRA TO STABILISE BEFORE AVERAGING IT OUT....

I am sure in the short to medium term, the scrip would give us good return like what happened in case of Atlanta Ltd or Vadilal Enterprises Ltd in the past....

THEREFORE, sing "DON'T WORRY BE HAPPY", along with the musician, Bobby McFerrin. On a lighter note: This song released in September 1988, became the first a cappella song to reach number one on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, a position it held for two weeks.

Thanks!!

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

"Bhailogo ko apun ka salaam!!"

"Neeche hai, apun ka market wali kahani..bole toh aajkal market kaafi tej hai, lagta ki, iske peech bulls ka chase hai"

"To bhai log, abhi apun ko kya karna mangta...??!!"

XL Telecom and Energy Ltd hit the buyer freeze. The Paid Members were asked to accumulate scrip on last Friday. But what is the real reason for sudden optimism in the counter? I have written something on the Sunday Report sent to the Paid Groups.

The Quickie Call (Very short term Paid Call for the Quickie Groups), Amar Remidies Ltd almost reached the target on the first day itself....as the scrip touched Rs.42.20 today. The stock was recommended as a very short term call at Rs.37.95 today. But is it an investment grade scrip? What should the punters do now? H...old or exit? These things are mentioned in the report sent.....

The last minute shovelling of shares of Sanguine Media Services Ltd by the battered bulls, saw it close near the upper freeze of Rs.3.59. The selling stopped after some vital news were sent in Face Book and through Yahoo Messenger, that the company would start getting payments for the work on two serials it is doing for Gemini TV (a division of Sun TV Ltd), from this quarter (Q3FY10) onwards. The company would probably get repeat orders from ICICI Bank for its event management division. It earlier used to get Rs.5 lakhs per month for the work on event management and this time the contract size could increase. The company is now generating good amount of additional revenues from the event management space. Moreover, Sanguine Media Ltd is also likely to sign a contract with Godrej Ltd, the noted FMCG company for an advertisement film or may be for its event management division (not exactly sure as what would be the nature of contract). The company is also doing event management for TVS Motors Ltd, according to the Highly Placed sources close to me and my firm.Hence accumulate the scrip (Sanguine Media) before these NEWS comes in the media. Sanguine Media Services Ltd will be a multi-bagger going forward, considering the nature of the news coming out from its stable. The company's revenues and net profit in the last two quarters suffered due to completion of work on serials and for financial closure. With the company netting fresh contracts, one after another, it is only time that the scrip would cross Rs.10. After getting this favourable news from the sources close to me in Bombay (Mumbai) and Chennai (Madras), I have upped the target for shares of Sanguine Media Ltd to Rs.17-18, from Rs.9-10 (mentioned earlier) in the next 12 months time frame. The book value of the shares of the company is around Rs.22, while it CMP is Rs.3.58 (looks absurd considering the present development in the company). In another development Vision Corporation Ltd, another media conglomerate from Bombay, hit 3rd consecutive buyer freeze. The scrip was repeatedly recommended to the Paid and Free Groups, in my blog and Yahoo Groups. THE ABOVE ARE SOME OF THE EXTRACTS FROM THE SUNDAY REPORT SENT TO THE PAID GROUPS.

Northgate Technologies Ltd is consolidating at the current price for a massive upmove in the days to come. The company is going to sell its social networking portal www.bharatstudent.com, at some good rates. Three bidders have been selected from the pool who applied for the same and the due deligence is expected to be completed within a very short time. Apart from www.bharatstudent.com, which is the third largest portal after Orkut and Face Book, the company is having following profit making portals:

1. www.axill.com--It monetises web traffic through Banner Ads, Pop-Ups and Video Ads.

2. www.ziddu.com--World's only file sharing portal that allows users to interact with others, make friends and build communities.

3. www.globe7.com--Ranked among 1000 web-sites in the world with more than 58 million downloads.

The company came out with decent set of numbers for the Q2FY10, when speaking sequentially.

As expected my recommended Ennore Coke Ltd, hit the buyer freeze. The stock was recommended in the Sunday Report sent to the Clients. The company came out with superb set of numbers for the Q2FY10.

Cords Cable Industries Ltd touched Rs.45, today before cooling down a bit. A report on the company is placed at: www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com.

Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd hit the buyer freeze, on some favourable news. What is the news in the counter?

Paid Members were mentioned in the earlier part of the last week, that the intermediate correction is over and they can go for the kill.

The following information was sent on 30th October, 2009 (morning mail) to the Paid Groups, when most of the analysts were speaking of 4350, on the Nifty:

A recovery seems to be on the cards today on the following counts: (a) Oversold conditions (b) In case of spot Nifty, 4700-4760 support zone is expected to hold. (c) Robust international cues. Investors/ Traders are advised to cover short positions. Fresh shorts may only be considered once this perceived pullback starts to falter. Also, initially the markets could be rattled a bit due to RIL results.

And you saw in the last few days in which direction the market moved....hahahaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!

MORE COMING, PLEASE KEEP WATCH ON THIS SPACE.....

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

ITL Industries Ltd recommended in this week, as the Pick of the Week touched Rs.34 today. It came out with superb set of numbers for the Q2FY10. There is a report on the company at www.sumanspeaks.blogspot.com.

My recommended BAG Films Ltd hit the 2nd consecutive buyer freeze, after the stock fell from grace some days back. It is to be noted that Congress MP, Mr.Rajib Shukla holds substantial stake in the company.

Energy Development Company Ltd which came out with good numbers for Q2FY10, touched Rs.57.45 before cooling down a bit. The company is doing a number of hydro-electric projects in India and in Arunachal Pradesh alone it is doing more than 200 Mw projects. The stock is expected to cross Rs.100, in the next 2-3 months time frame. Its Q3 results will be further good, due to some expected positive developments. For more on the company please visit: http://www.edclgroup.com/.

Gallant Metal Ltd, recommended to the Paid Groups today, touched Rs.14.90, before cooling a bit. The company came out with good numbers for the September, 2009 quarters.

Northgate Technologies Ltd buoyed by very good results for the Q2FY10, almost hit the buyer freeze today. The stock is expected to be multi-bagger going forward. The company has completed the 1st phase of a massive restructuring process. Some restructuring is still going on....

Sanguine Media Services Ltd almost hit the buyer freeze today with good volumes, before cooling down a bit. There are some good news coming in the company--hence accumulate in bulk. The book value of the scrip is around Rs.22. The bad days are over for the company. The company has struck contracts with a division of the Sun TV Network (100% authentic news from sources). Hence, I have now increased my target to Rs.18--19, with the next 6 to 9 months time frame. It is a multi-bagger in the making...

Murdoch's News Corp net income rises 11%

Global media giant News Corporation has reported a 11 per cent growth in first quarter net income at $571 million, helped by gains in cable network programming businesses and filmed entertainment segment.

In the year-ago period, net income attributable to the company's stockholders stood at $515 million, News Corp said in a statement.

"I am pleased that the company has delivered exceptionally strong results this quarter, despite continued macro-economic challenges," Chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch said.

Revenues increased to $7.19 billion in the quarter ended September 30 from $7.50 billion in the same period last fiscal.

The media company posted an operating income of $1.04 billion, an increase of nine per cent from year-ago period.

"Operating income growth was led by gains at our worldwide cable network programming businesses and renewed momentum at our Filmed Entertainment segment, reflecting our strong slate of films at the global box office," Murdoch added.

During the quarter, the company's cable network programming business clocked an operating income of $495 million, an increase of $145 million over year-ago period.

The 41 per cent growth in operating income reflects increased contributions from FOX News Channel, the Fox International Channels, STAR, the Regional Sports Networks and the Big Ten Network.

Besides, filmed entertainment segment registered an operating income of $391 million in the September quarter of 2009, compared with $251 million in the same period last year.

The company added increased contributions from the Fox International Channels were driven by continued affiliate revenue growth in Latin America, Europe and Asia.

However, in newspapers and information services operations the company has reported a decline of $109 million from the year-ago period to $25 million.

WINNING STROKE: THINK DIFFERENT:

Pick of the week for this week, ITL Industries Ltd (BSE Code: 522183) hit the upper freeze, before closing a tad below at Rs.32.05. The research report on the scrip would soon be placed at: www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com.

SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd, Northgate Technologies Ltd, Energy Development Company Ltd, etc, all came out with better than expected results for Q2FY10, at least speaking sequentially.

Today fall was mentioned in the morning mail about the impending fall as, "One should however note that fall in stock prices are like avalanche – nothing can stand for long in their way. Investors are advised......."

Key benchmark indices extended losses for sixth straight session of trade as sell-off gripped index pivotals in late trade. The barometer index BSE Sensex dropped to its lowest level in more than two months. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) slumped over 6% on reports the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has set up a team to examine the expenses Reliance Industries (RIL) incurred on its D6 natural gas field in the Krishna-Godavari (KG) basin in the Bay of Bengal.

The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 491.34 points or 3.09%, off 552.12 points from the day's high and up 74.38 points from the day's low. High volatility was the hallmark of the day's trading session. Selling pressure was intense with all the BSE sectoral indices ending with losses. The market breadth was quite weak.

Weakness in European markets and US index futures weighed on investor sentiment. Risk aversion rose after the UK Treasury today, 3 November 2009, announced a shake-up of British banks, which raised concerns about its financial system.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc will receive 31.3 billion pounds ($51 billion) in a second bailout from the UK taxpayer in return for putting a cap on bonuses. The Treasury will inject 25.5 billion pounds of capital into RBS, for a total of 45.5 billion pounds, making it the costliest bailout of any bank worldwide. The government will fund about a quarter of Lloyds’s 21 billion-pound fundraising. The rescue will bring the government closer to full ownership over RBS, while Lloyds will escape government control.

The sell-off on the domestic bourses in the latter part of the trading session was partly due to selling by European funds. Some European funds could be selling to get the cash they need to take up their shares in Lloyds.

Profit taking ahead of the year-end has pulled world markets off their recent highs. Indian stocks have tumbled from a recent high on year-end profit taking by foreign funds. Year-end profit taking may cap upside for global stocks in the next two months.

Coming back to today's trade, realty, cement and metal shares declined sharply on selling pressure. IT stocks slipped on profit booking. Telecom shares saw divergent trend with Bharti Airtel rebounding from a 52-week low on bargain hunting after a steep recent slide. Reliance Communications dropped on poor earnings.

Intra-day volatility on the bourses was high. After an initial slide triggered by weak global stocks, the market recouped almost the entire losses shortly. However, the intraday rebound was short-lived. The market weakened again later. The market once again staged a strong intraday rebound with the Sensex entering the positive zone. However, weak global stocks pulled the market into the red again later.

Bargain hunting in index pivotals helped the market once again regain positive zone in early afternoon trade. The Sensex surged to the day's high in early afternoon trade. But the market faltered again later. Weak European markets triggered a sell-off in mid-afternoon trade. The market extended losses in late trade.

Asian stocks had dropped on Monday, 2 November 2009 when the Indian markets were closed on account of a public holiday. US stocks had declined sharply on Friday, 30 October 2009.

Back home, a report prepared by ministry of finance indicated that the economy is showing a distinct sign of pickup, although uncertainty related to the poor summer monsoon and the global economic outlook remain. The economic growth slowed to 6.7% in the fiscal year through March 2009 after three straight years of at least 9%, and government officials have said growth in the current year is on track for roughly 6.5%.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on Tuesday that the government has to continue with its fiscal stimulus and is confident of attaining it medium-term fiscal targets. He said non-farm credit growth remained an area of concern and said banks have been told to enhance credit growth.

The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), based on a survey of 500 Indian companies, fell to 54.5 in October 2009 from 55 in September 2009. A reading above 50 means activity expanded during the month. Growth in domestic new orders may be beginning to suffer from the impact of a drought, but stronger foreign demand was helping to cushion the blow, HSBC senior Asian economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde said.

Oil product sales rose 0.8% in September 2009, its lowest level since May 2009, as demand for diesel and naphtha softened, data showed on Tuesday.

A news agency today, 3 November 2009, quoted G. Bhujabal, economic advisor in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry as saying that he expects declining trend of exports reversing by December 2009 or January 2010. Exports declined 13.8% in September 2009 to $13.6 billion. Exports fell 28.5% in the April-September 2009 period to $77.9 billion.

Crude oil imports in September 2009 rose 10.5% to 2.77 million barrels per day (bpd) as Indian refiners processed 3.4% more crude. Fuel exports were down by 27% in September 2009 versus a year ago. The data does not include imports and exports by Reliance Industries' new 580,000 barrels per day export-focused refinery at Jamnagar in Gujarat.

European markets were trading weak today, 3 November 2009 as poor results from UBS and a shake-up of Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland rattled investors. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were down by between 2.06% and 2.49%.

Most Asian stocks fell on Tuesday, 3 November 2009, as concern over the withdrawal of stimulus measures overshadowed Ford Motor Co.'s unexpected profit and a rally in gold prices. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea were down by between 0.17% and 1.76% respectively. However China's Shanghai Composite index rose 1.22%.

Japanese markets were closed today, 3 November 2009, for a national holiday. Australia's central bank on Tuesday raised its key policy rate for a second month in a row, hiking it by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.50%, as expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia left some analysts speculating that policy could be on hold in December 2009 after it said that interest rate rises in October 2009 and November 2009 would work to temper inflation and ensure a sustainable upswing in the economy.

Asian markets had dropped on Monday, 2 November 2009 as worries about the US financial sector resurfaced after CIT Group Inc, the lender to small and mid-sized US companies, filed for bankruptcy.

But Wall Street edged higher on Monday, 2 November 2009 as manufacturing expanded more than expected last month. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 76.71 points, or 0.8%, to 9,789.44. The S&P 500 index added 6.69 points, or 0.7%, to 1,042.88, and the Nasdaq Composite index rose 4.09 points, or 0.2%, to 2,049.20.

Among the economic data, the ISM reported its gauge of manufacturing activity at 55.7 in October 2009, the third straight month of growth and the highest reading since April 2006. Also pending-home sales rose to their highest level in nearly three years in September 2009, boosted by the first-time homebuyer's tax credit. Also construction spending rose 0.8% in the month of September.

A crucial data in the US on Friday, 6 November 2009, is the monthly employment report for October 2009. The US unemployment rate is forecast at 9.9% in October 2009, slightly higher than 9.8% in September 2009, while non-farm payrolls are forecast to fall 175,000 from a drop of 263,000. But given the strong manufacturing data for the month which was released recently, the unemployment number could be better than expected.

Trading in US index futures indicated Dow could fall 73 points at the opening bell on Tuesday, 3 November 2009.

It is widely expected that the US Federal Reserve at a regular two-day policy meeting on 3-4 November 2009 will hold interest rates at their lowest-ever range of 0% to 0.25%, where they stood since December 2008. However, there's plenty of unease about the contents of the Fed's accompanying policy statement. A section of the market sees the Fed altering its statement to a less dovish tone. There is speculation that the Fed might drop or alter its pledge to keep rates low for an extended period.

Financial markets are also looking for clues from other central banks about when stimulative policy may have to come to an end. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday, 5 November 2009. No rate change is expected and few expect it to offer clues on when it might change tack. The Bank of England (BOE) meets the same day and the market is waiting to see if it tops up its quantitative easing programme after the economy unexpectedly contracted between July-September 2009 period.

Governments and central banks around the world have injected trillions of dollars in the past year or so to pull the world out of a most severe recession since the 1930s Great Depression.

Closer home, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at its monetary policy review on 27 October 2009 left its key rates unchanged, but raised the wholesale price-based inflation projection for end-March 2010 sharply to 6.5% with an upward bias, from 5 % earlier.

The IMF said on 29 October 2009 the economies of India, China and Australia were recovering especially rapidly, suggesting it notices growing pressures for authorities there to tighten monetary policy ahead of others in the region. It called the three economies special cases, while adding a tightening of monetary policy seemed unnecessary elsewhere in the region in the near future.

It also advised Asian central banks not to raise interest rates only to calm asset price growth, saying lifting rates ahead of advanced economies could attract "carry trade-type" capital inflows and aggravate asset price pressures.

Closer home, there are concerns that a fund raising spree by Indian firms will suck liquidity from the secondary equity market. As per reports, Indian firms have garnered about $9 billion (Rs 32,400 crore at the current exchange rates) through sale of shares and convertible bonds to institutional buyers since April 2009. Indian companies are taking advantage of a surge in liquidity to recapitalize and fund capital expenditure after being starved of cash last year.

Unlisted Reliance Infratel announced on 22 September 2009 its intention to raise Rs 5,000 crore from the primary market. Divestment of state-run firms by the government may also increase the supply of paper in the market.

The government recently approved stake sales in state-run power producer NTPC and another unlisted power firm Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam which reflects the country's resolve to speed up reforms and raise more resources for social schemes.

The government has approved a follow-on public offering of 20% of state run Steel Authority of India, the steel minister said on 21 October 2009. The Government of India owns nearly 86% of Sail. Also the government gave its approval for 15% follow on public offer for Rural Electrification Corporation on 29 October 2009.

The BSE 30-share Sensex slumped 491.34 points or 3.09% to 15,404.94, its lowest closing since 3 September 2009. The Sensex opened 57.65 points lower at 15,838.63. The Sensex rose 78.78 points at the day's high of 15,957.06 in early afternoon trade. The Sensex lost 565.72 points at the day's low of 15,330.56 in late trade, its lowest level since 21 August 2009.

The S&P CNX Nifty slipped 147.80 points or 3.14% to 4,563.90, its lowest closing since 21 August 2009. Nifty November 2009 futures were at 4,536.25, at a discount of 27.65 points as compared to the spot closing. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment increased to Rs 81,574.39 crore from Rs 78,337.48 crore on Friday, 30 October 2009.

The BSE Sensex has shed 1405.87 points or 8.36% in six trading days from 16,810.81 on 23 October 2009. From a 17-month closing high of 17,326.01 on 17 October 2009, the Sensex has lost 1921.07 points or 11.08%. Yet, the barometer index is up 5757.63 points or 59.68% in calendar year 2009, as on 3 November 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex is up 7244.54 points or 88.77%, as on 3 November 2009. FII inflow in October 2009 totaled Rs 8303.80 crore, till 30 October 2009. Their inflow amounted to Rs 68,441.10 crore in the calendar year 2009.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was weak. On BSE, 1910 shares declined as compared with 749 that rose. A total of 66 shares remained unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 3.74% at 5,789.49, and the BSE Small-cap index fell 4.50% at 6,741.24. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 6,207.52 crore as compared with Rs 5104 crore on Friday, 30 October .

All BSE sectoral indices ended with losses. The BSE Auto index (down 1.13%), the BSE Bankex (down 1.93%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (down 2.48%), the BSE PSU index (down 2.68%), the BSE FMCG index (down 2.57%), and the BSE Healthcare index (down 0.54%), outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Capital Goods index (down 3.20%), the BSE IT index (down 3.44%), the BSE Realty index (down 9.76%), the BSE Metal index (down 5.95%), the BSE Power index (down 3.49%), and the BSE Oil & Gas index (down 4.10%), underperformed the Sensex.

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 27 slipped while only 3 of them managed to post gains.

India's largest firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) slumped 6.23% to Rs 1811 on reports the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) will soon audit RIL books of accounts. The stock had lost 3.62%% on Friday, 30 October 2009, hit by disappointing Q2 results.

The director general of hydrocarbons has been accused by Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL), controlled by Mukesh Ambani's estranged brother Anil Ambani, of approving an increase in RIL's capital expenditure on the D6 exploration block from $2.4 billion (Rs11,280 crore) to $8.8 billion. This block is where RIL made one of the biggest discoveries of natural gas in India.

RIL reported a 6.4% fall in net profit at Rs 3,852 crore despite 6% rise in total income to Rs 47,476 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. Refining margins more than halved to $6 a barrel from $13.3 a barrel a year earlier. The results were announced after market hours on Thursday, 29 October 2009.

The government on 27 October 2009 allocated additional 50 million cubic metres a day (mmscmd) of gas from Reliance Industries-operated east coast block D6. Power plants and refineries will get the bulk of Reliance Industries' gas from the Krishna-Godavari basin beyond the previously allotted 40 million metric standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd).

The empowered group of ministers (eGoM) also made some allotments for Reliance's petrochemical plants and refineries.

India's largest oil exploration firm by market capitalisation Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) fell 1.03%. As per reports, the company is planning to enter the nuclear power space. ONGC, which last year announced plans to enter uranium mining, is now seriously exploring the possibility of setting up nuclear power plants in the country, reports added.

India's largest private sector aluminium maker by sales Hindalco Industries tumbled 10.21% to Rs 109.50 after net profit declined 52.2% to Rs 344.05 crore on a 13.2% decline in sales to Rs 4892.56 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The result was announced on Saturday, 31 October 2009. It was the top loser from the Sensex pack.

Other metal stocks also drifted lower. Sterlite Industries India (down 6.42%), National Aluminium Company (down 0.15%), Tata Steel (down 6.30%), and Sesa Goa (down 6.58%), were the other losers from the metal pack.

Jindal Steel & Power fell 4.57% after net profit slumped 32.2% to Rs 305.01 crore on 28% fall in net sales to Rs 1596.53 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The company announced the results on Saturday, 31 October 2009.

Mukand surged 5.63% on reports the company plans to sell a portion of its land bank to reduce its debt of around Rs 1500 crore over the next one year.

Rate sensitive realty shares declined, extending a recent sharp fall, after the RBI in its monetary policy review meet on 27 October 2009 raised the provisioning requirements for loans to commercial real estate from 0.4% to 1%. DLF (down 7.97%), Unitech (down 9.06%), HDIL (down 6.51%), Indiabulls Real Estate (down 14.73%), and Parsvnath Developers (down 6.13%), declined.

India's largest cement maker by sales ACC shed 5.54% after shipments in October 2009 fell marginally to 1.69 million tonnes from 1.70 million a year ago. The company said production fell to 1.71 million tonnes from 1.74 million tonnes a year ago.

India's largest private sector power generation firm by sales Reliance Infrastructure slipped 6.66%. The company on Saturday, 31 October 2009, reported 6.2% rise in net profit to Rs 306.90 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. Total income rose to Rs 2,812.82 crore from Rs 2,674.86 crore in the same period last year.

Ambuja Cements declined 4.61% after October 2009 shipments rose 3% to 1.464 million tonnes from a year earlier. The company's production rose to 1.498 million tonnes from 1.451 million tonnes.

Grasim fell 1.03% and UltraTech Cement slipped 3.48%. Aditya Birla Group's cement shipments in October rose 11.1% from a year earlier to 2.819 million tonnes. Production rose an annual 12.5% to 2.934 million tonnes. The group's cement business includes flagship Grasim Industries and unit UltraTech Cement, with a combined production capacity of 42 million tonnes a year.

India's largest engineering & construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro rose shed 2.75% to Rs 1524.10. The stock had surged to day's high of Rs 1600 after the company said it won an order worth Rs 6897 crore from Maharashtra State Power Generation Company. The announcement was made before market hours today, 3 November 2009.

India's largest dam builder by sales Jaiprakash Associates (JAL) tanked 7.14%. As per reports its subsidiary Jaypee Infratech (JIL) is preparing to raise Rs 2,500-3,000 crore through an initial share sale. JAL is eyeing a valuation of Rs 20,000-25,000 crore and expects to divest 10-15% in JIL through the public offer.

IRB Infrastructure Developers rose 1.56% after consolidated net profit soared 71.9% to Rs 70.82 crore on a 76.5% spurt in consolidated sales to Rs 355.90 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The result was announced after market hours on Friday, 30 October 2009.

Suzlon Energy tumbled 13.75% after reporting a net loss of Rs 184.91 crore in Q2 September 2009 compared with a net profit of Rs 16.98 crore in Q2 September 2008. The result was announced on Saturday, 31 October 2009.

Indiabulls Power plunged 16.56% to Rs Rs 32.75, with the scrip moving further away from the initial public offer price of Rs 45, after a disappointing debut on the bourses on Friday, 30 October 2009.

IT pivotals declined on profit booking. Infosys (down 3.09%), Wipro (down 5.21%), and TCS (down 3.66%), edged lower.

Aptech fell 8.18% on reports the company's plan to list its China-based unit on the New York Stock Exchange has been put on hold since there were some discrepancies in the unit's accounts disclosures for the first six months.

Telecom pivotals witnessed divergent trend. India's second largest telecom company by sales Reliance Communications slumped 6.17%. The company reported 51.66% decline in its consolidated profit at Rs 740 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. Consolidated revenue increased to Rs 5,703 crore in the quarter under review from Rs 5,645 crore in the year-ago period. The result was declared on 31 October 2009.

However India's largest cellular services provider by sales Bharti Airtel surged 2.14% to Rs 298.40, on bargain hunting after a sharp recent slide. The stock rebounded from an initial slide which had taken the stock to a 52-week low of Rs 280.05. It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack.

Bharti Airtel on Friday introduced a 'pay per second' plan across the country. In this plan, called Freedom Plan, Airtel customers will be charged one paise per second for all local and STD calls to Airtel numbers and 1.20 paise per second for local and STD calls to other networks.

Meanwhile, Singapore Telecommunications has bought additional 1.52% stake in Bharti Airtel and will pay up to Rs 3008.4 crore in three installments ranging over 18 months. In a notice to Singapore Stock Exchange, SingTel said it has entered into a conditional share purchase agreement with Bharti Group entity to buy an additional 7,30,000 issued shares in Bharti Telecom, a promoter company of Bharti Airtel.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank was down 0.70% to Rs 784 in highly volatile trading session, swinging between Rs 773.10 - 823 . The bank's net profit rose 2.6% to Rs 1040.13 crore on a 12.7% decline in total income to Rs 8480.73 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The result was announced during trading hours on 30 October 2009.

India's largest bank by net profit State Bank of India fell 4.47%. The bank's consolidated net profit rose 28.29% to Rs 3,133.16 crore on 22% rise in consolidated income to Rs 33,101.65 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008.

Some auto stocks rose on the back of strong growth in sales in the month just gone by. Low interest rates and attractive benefits offered by companies pushed the aggregate sales of the industry in October 2009.

India's largest small car marker by sales Maruti Suzuki India rose 0.61% after total sales grew 32.4% to 85415 units in October 2009, compared with 64490 units posted in the same month a year ago.

Ashok Leyland gained 1.76% after net profit surged 31.8% to Rs 88.61 crore on 15.7% fall in net sales to Rs 1577.68 crore Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The company announced the results after market hours on Friday, 30 October 2009.

India's second largest bike marker by sales Bajaj Auto rose 1.09% after it reported 51.06% rise in total two-wheeler sales to 2,49,974 units in October 2009 as compared with 1,65,477 units in the same period a year ago.

However India's largest bike marker by sales Hero Honda Motors fell 4.07% after it reported a marginal increase in October sales at 354,156 units as against 352,449 units in the same month last year.

India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra lost 3.47%. Its overall sales climbed 32% in October this year to 18,410 units against 13,935 units in the same month last year.

India's largest truck marker by sales Tata Motors slipped 2.65%. Its total sales grew 18% to 20,011 units last month against 17,014 units in the same period last year.

Shanthi Gears fell 8.10% after net profit tumbled 78% to Rs 2.68 crore on 55.2% fall in net sales to Rs 29.40 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The company announced the results on Saturday, 31 October 2009.

India's largest FMCG company by sales Hindustan Unilever dropped 4.58% after net profit fell 22% to Rs 429 crore on 5% rise in net sales to Rs 4,228 crore in the quarter ended September 2009 over the quarter ended September 2008.

Shares from healthcare sector gained on defensive buying. Dr Reddy's Laboratories (up 3.95%), Nicholas Piramal (up 0.56%), Sun Pharmaceuticals (up 1.33%), Lupin (up 1.12%), and Cipla (up 0.61%), gained.

Aurobindo Pharma rose 0.17% after the company posted net profit of Rs 128.29 crore in Q2 September 2009 as against a net loss of Rs 38.50 crore in Q2 September 2008. The company announced the results after market hours on Friday, 30 October 2009.

Advanta India fell 9.37% after the company posted net loss of Rs 12.86 crore in Q3 September 2009, higher than net loss of Rs 7.01 crore in Q3 September 2008. Total income plunged 43.6% to Rs 7.84 crore in Q3 September 2009 over Q3 September 2008. The company declared its results after market hours on Friday, 30 October 2009.

Sugar maker Balrampur Chini Mills shed 9.58% after it today, 3 November 2009 said it has not entered into any stake sale agreement with rival Bajaj Hindusthan. The company held some talks with Bajaj Hindusthan to discuss future business strategies, it said in a letter to the stock exchange. Bajaj Hindusthan rose 0.46%.

Print media reports on Saturday indicated that Bajaj Hindusthan was in talks with Balrampur Chini to buy stake from its founders for Rs 2400 crore.

Reliance Industries was the top traded counter on BSE with turnover of Rs 206.91 crore followed by State Bank of India (Rs 183.90 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 169.01 crore), Bharti Airtel (Rs 148.18 crore), and Reliance Natural Resources (Rs 145.51 crore).

Cals Refineries clocked highest volume of 3.20 crore shares on BSE. Suzlon Energy (2.21 crore shares), Reliance Natural Resources (2.14 crore shares), Indiabulls Power (1.60 crore shares) and Unitech (1.15 crore shares), were the other volume toppers in that order.

WOW!!

China's manufacturing sector grew in October at its fastest rate in 18 months, a survey has suggested:

Meanwhile, Energy Developments Company Ltd, XL Telecom and Energy Ltd and Northgate Technologies Ltd came out with SUPERB Sequential Results for Q2FY10. My sources have given me correct information on these matters...

Meanwhile, what is the latest on Sanguine Media Services Ltd....

The purchasing managers index (PMI) from the state-sanctioned China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing rose to 55.2 from 54.3 in September.

The survey is a further sign of the strength of the recovery in the Chinese economy, which grew at an annual rate of 8.9% between July and September. Many major economies are only just starting to grow after long recessions. Any figure above 50 in the survey indicates growth in the manufacturing sector. October is the eighth month in a row that the sector has expanded, after six months of decline. Government support:

"These figures show that China's economic growth will accelerate in the future," said Zhang Liqun, an economist at the State Council Development Research Center.

He added that the economy would likely grow by 9.5% in the final three months of the year.

China's strong recovery has been aided by government stimulus packages, similar to those put in place by other major world economies.

At the end of 2008, the government announced a 4 trillion yuan ($586bn; £355bn) stimulus plan involving increased spending on infrastructure, such as rail and roads, to boost the domestic economy as exports slumped.

"China's recovery has been impressive, but has been heavily reliant on government-directed investment," said Brian Jackson at the Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.

But economists believe that even without state aid, China's economy will now enjoy robust growth.

"External demand will provide an additional source of support for growth in the months ahead," said Mr Jackson, before adding that the government may begin scaling back its support "from early 2010".

An analyst at JP Morgan added that, "while public investment may moderate in the months ahead, private real estate investment, consumer spending and export demand should drive growth in the coming months."

Figures released last week showed that the US economy grew by an annual rate of 3.5% between July and September, its first expansion in more than a year. Germany, France and Japan all returned to growth between April and June.

Kotak Predicts Revival in a year:

Samsung Electronics Co. said third-quarter net profit tripled to a record amid increased sales of flat screen TVs and mobile phones and higher prices for computer memory chips. The Crude are now moving towards $82 per barrel mark once again.

Oil prices hovered above $80 a barrel Friday in Asia after the U.S. economy snapped four straight quarters of contraction, suggesting demand for crude will improve.

With the US economy coming out of recession, there should be no looking back for the bulls--a strong rally in the global and domestic markets is in the offing. I had earlier mentioned of an winter rally rally starting from 1st or 2nd Week of November, 2009. Yesterday, the US Commerce Department, said the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years and breaking four straight quarters of declines. This should be the music to all those who have bought shares in the last few days...Just Enjoy!!

Today Sanguine Media Services Ltd, Northgate Technologies Ltd are coming up with results and according to the sources close to me, Q2FY10, will be a little better than Q1FY10, showing smart improvemement on their fundamentals. Country Club India Ltd recommended yesterday, is looking good for the short to medium term play. Yesterday's buy call on Rolta Ltd almost hits the buyer freeze. Moreover, Accentia Technologies Ltd, Energy Development Ltd, XL Telecom and Energy Ltd, Sanguine Media Services Ltd, JVL Agro Ltd, Cords Cable Industries Ltd and Faze Three Ltd, etc,. are also looking good for the short term play.

MUMBAI: Mergers and acquisitions in India may accelerate within 12 months, after the slowest year in five, as tightening competition leads to “intense pain,” said Uday Kotak, head of the nation’s top-ranked takeover adviser.

Telecommunications companies and airlines are among industries that may lead the wave of consolidation because multiple operators are competing in the same sectors, he said.

“The phase of companies making a choice between mortality and consolidation is about a year or so away,” Kotak, 50, said in an interview at his Mumbai office yesterday, without identifying any companies.

“We will see a very significant pickup in M&A activity sometime nine to 12 months from now.”

The steepest rally in Indian equities in six years helped companies, including some of

the nation’s family-controlled businesses, raise funds and delay consolidation, Kotak said. The value of takeovers in India declined to $14 billion this year from $49.3 billion in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The last six months in the capital markets have enabled some of the companies which may have had issues down the road, even of bankruptcy, getting equity,” Kotak said. Still, as investors become more discerning, “it’ll force consolidation.”

SpiceJet Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Aggarwal said Oct. 28 consolidation in the airline industry is “inevitable” because too many carriers are competing for too few fliers. The airline, backed by billionaire Wilbur Ross, may raise as much as $50 million to fund expansion, he said.

Reliance, Satyam Deals:

Kotak Mahindra Capital Co. advised Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries Ltd. on increasing a stake in its petroleum unit in a stock transaction. It also counseled Tech Mahindra Ltd. on its $352 million purchase of a controlling stake in fraud-hit Satyam Computer Services Ltd.

Those transactions helped vault Kotak Mahindra Capital past Citigroup Inc. and Barclays Capital, giving the Mumbai-based investment bank a market share of 21% with mergers and acquisitions worth $2.85 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

In the market for managing share sales, Kotak is ranked fourth behind New York-based Citigroup. Indian companies sold 582 billion rupees of stock in rights offers, private placements and new and secondary sales. The benchmark Sensitive Index advanced 62% this year, fueled by $14.4 billion of purchases by overseas funds.

“Capital markets will be more discerning in terms of the kinds of companies which will be able to raise capital,” Kotak said. “The companies have rightly taken advantage to make sure their balance sheets get stronger.”

Winning Strokes: Think Different:

Sensex pares losses; Bharti, RIL, Tata Motors up. Correction which started merely on some apprehensions after the RBI's credit policy, seems to be over as of now, as the market is preparing for a winter rally to begin soon or at most from 1st-2nd week of November, 2009.

There is good news in the Real Estate and Bankng sector as well: RBI's provisioning hike may not up loan rates for realty companies much. Based on this premise, in the morning investors were asked to buy Dena Bank Ltd. Later Buy calls were given in case of Rolta Ltd, Northgate Technologies Ltd, Sanguine Media Services Ltd, etc.

The bears will starts to vanish as soon as the Nifty starts trading above 4920--4930 ranges.

The crude oil is all set to cross $92 barrels within a very short time as the dollar cannot remain strong with this condition of the US economy. It is to be noted that commodity prices have inverse co-relation with dollar index.

Also the fact that SAT has nailed the notorious stock broker/trader Shankar Sharma is positive for the Stock Market, especially for the BULLS. But then still he is a favourite lover boy of our Indian business channels.

MUMBAI: Benchmarks were off intra-day lows Wednesday as buying emerged at lower levels ahead of October series F&O expiry. Stocks from oil&gas and capital goods led the recovery while banks and realty continued to reel under pressure.

“The breakout happened yesterday on what is called a pattern breakaway/runaway gap thus confirming further downsides in store. The daily momentum too remains firmly in red expect Sensex to target 14000-14100 in coming months,” said Emkay Global Financial Services.

At 12 pm, Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex was at 16,303.60, down 49.80 points or 0.30 per cent. The index touched an intra-day high of 16335.78 and low of 16144.17 .

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty was at 4832.95, down 13.75 points or 0.28 p

er cent. Earlier in the day, the index had breached 4800 mark to touch a low of 4784.10. It touched a high of 4848.55 in trade so far.

BSE Midcap Index was up 0.01 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index slipped 0.32 per cent.

Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Oil&gas Index was up 1.16 per cent and BSE Capital Goods Index moved 0.87 per cent higher.

BSE Bankex declined 1.86 per cent, BSE Realty Index fell 1.49 per cent and BSE Metal Index slipped 0.54 per cent.

Bharti Airtel (4.17%), Tata Motors (3.15%), Larsen & Toubro (2.64%), Wipro (2.31%) and Reliance Industries (2.25%) were amongst the top Sensex gainers.

ICICI Bank (-2.76%), Tata Steel (-2.75%), State Bank of India (-2.22%), Sterlite Industries (-2.03%) and Sun Pharmaceuticals (-2.02%) were the top index losers.

Market breadth was negative on the BSE with 1455 declines and 956 advances.

China, US will Grow Solar Power Competition:

The United States and China are in a head-to-head race to become the world's top market for solar power.

Solar panel makers are wasting no time making plans to cash in on the growth promise of both markets despite the global recession.

At the recent Reuters Global Climate and Alternative Energy Summit, Chinese and US solar companies including Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd, SunPower Corp, Trina Solar Ltd and BrightSource Energy Inc laid out plans to capture their share of what is expected to be explosive demand for solar-generated electricity in the world's biggest and third-largest economies.

The US and China lag far behind Europe in demand for solar power, but are expected to vault ahead in the next few years as both countries work to curb their emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming.

This year, Washington and Beijing have both rolled out programs designed to grow their fledgling solar power industries and thus boost growth in their economies. Together, they are expected to drive the building of at least 5 gigawatts (GW) of solar installations between 2009 and 2011, according to a recent report by investment firm CLSA.

Thanks to strong government incentives, Germany is the world's biggest solar market and is expected to remain so until 2013, when the United States will become its equal. China will be slightly behind, according to the research firm Lux Research.

In China, recently enacted subsidies for utility-scale solar power projects have prompted a host of plans for solar power plants.

US solar in China:

Those plans include the recent announcement of the first major foray by a US company into the Chinese solar sector by Arizona-based First Solar Inc.

That announcement, said spokesmen for several US companies, opens the door for other non-Chinese companies to compete in China's solar market.

"It clearly makes us more bullish on China," said Tom Werner, chief executive of California-based SunPower, which already produces some of its high-efficiency solar panels in China.

"We hope that that will result in us being able to penetrate that market, as well," Werner said.

BrightSource Energy CEO John Woolard said the First Solar deal showed the Chinese were serious about solar. Woolard said his company expects to announce a Chinese partner in about year.

First Solar's announcement also could quell complaints from some European solar companies that Beijing's support for its solar manufacturers was giving Chinese companies an unfair trade advantage over European and US companies vying for market share in the global sector.

"If you announce that we have such a huge need for solar panels that we are even going to put First Solar panels into China, all of a sudden we've gone from this massive threat to maybe we saw it the wrong way around," said Stephan Dolezalek, managing director of the California-based venture capital firm VantagePoint Venture Partners.

"Maybe we should see the size of the Chinese market as this enormous upside potential, and maybe all of solar should be seeing it much more positively," Dolezalek said.

In the United States, economic stimulus funds to fill the solar funding gap left by the financial crisis have been slow to materialize this year.

Nevertheless, companies like Suntech and SunPower expect government funds to boost the market next year, with Suntech saying the US solar market could triple in 2010 from about 350 megawatts this year.

"We do think the United States could be a very, very strong market," Suntech Chief Strategy Officer Steven Chan told the Summit.

The Obama administration's loan guarantees and grants for solar "set the stage for a great 2010", Chan said.

China's top solar company, Suntech, is setting up its first manufacturing plant in the United States and has narrowed the potential locations to Arizona and various cities in Texas, said Suntech's Chan. Suntech plans to start production at the 50-megawatt plant in the second half of 2010.

US-based SunPower said it would start producing solar panels in its home country next year to be closer to major solar markets like California.

"In terms of megawatts, it will represent a meaningful amount of our panel production, say up to a quarter of our total panel production," Werner of SunPower said. Smaller Chinese companies are looking at the US market, too.

Trina Solar, a solar panel maker based in Changzhou, is actively seeking partnerships with project developers in the United States to join the race for big contracts. "Honestly, we lag behind," Trina Chief Financial Officer Terry Wang said.

Breaking News in Case of Northgate Technologies Ltd: The worst is over for the company in Q1FY10, and the stock should move up from here Vertically. The company is coming up with results probably on 30th (or may be 31st) October, 2009.

The morning call Pyramid Saimira Theatres (PSTL) hits the Upper Circuits:

Phoenix International Ltd hits another buyer freeze. Those who have bought this stock hearding my suggestions earlier, must be laughing their way into banks:

Accumulate Energy Developments Ltd before the declaration of the results:

Please note that one of the companies in the race to buy of www.bharatstudent.com, have completed the due diligence process of putting the bids.

This portal (www.bharatstudent.com) belonged to Northgate Technologies Ltd. It is to be noted that www.bharatstudent.com is the 3rd largest social networking web-site, after www.orkut.com and www.facebook.com. The other two companies who are also in the fray (to buy www.bharatstudent.com), is expected to complete the same (due diligence) within the next 15 days time frame.

Then the bids would be opened by the management of Northgate Technologies Ltd, to seal the deal; with the highest bidder eating the cake and the company getting much needed cash for strengthening its business network or making its profit making ventures more strength.

The bids could be higher than earlier thought of, due to improvement of the current business environment, with www.facebook.com doing well.

Thus, www.bharatstudent.com having almost identical business model as www.facebook.com, would now get good valuations. Hence within the next one month we can look forward for the sale of www.bharatstudent.com. This money would be funneled back to the profitable ventures of the company like:

1. Globe 7 (www.globe7.com)--which is ranked among 1000 websites in the world with more than 58 million downloads and available in 10 different languages. It has the world's largest SIP switch facility at London.

2. Ziddu (www.ziddu.com)--It is the world's largest file sharing portal that allows users to interact with others, make friends and build communities. It is available in 16 languages.

3. AXILL (www.axill.com): Its CPA is an in-house development Internet Advertising Tracking tool with tracks from impression to sale. Axill monetizes its web traffic through banner ads, Pop-ups and Video Ads.

THE COMPANY AFTER SELLING BHARAT STUDENT DOT COM, is expected to show better performance in the coming quarters. In the June, 2009 quarter the company went for a massive restructuring exercise writing off bad debts and selling off loss making entities.

The effects of these positive developments are expected to be seen from Q2FY10. The stock according to the market sources is all set to cross Rs.100, within a very short time. Knowledgeable circles in the market are accumulating Northgate Technologies Ltd, before selling of www.bharatstudent.com. The worst is over for the company and hence buy in bulk. Please remember at stock which was once trading around Rs.1500 is now available at around Rs.36--37..which looks absurd; especially when the restructuring is complete in the last quarter.

Moreover, Sanguine Media Services Ltd trading around Rs.3.99 could be dark horse going forward. The company is expected to come up with Q2FY10, results at the end of this month, probably on 31st, October, 2009. The results are expected to be good sequentially and would further improve going forward. The company’s event management section earlier received contract from ICICI Bank and probably from TVS Motors Ltd. The company is focused on rural media coverage.

According to the market sources the stock could cross Rs.11-12 in the next 3 to 4 months time frame. Since the company has very low equity capital and hence, when it starts hitting upper freezes it is very difficult to buy the scrip from the open market. The book value of the shares of the company is Rs.21.88 (Rs.22 approx) against its current market price of Rs.3.99. This essentially means that if the company gets liquidated today, then all of us (shareholders) would get Rs.21.88 per share—less administrative or other charges---doesn’t it look interesting??!! Its price to book is OLNY at 0.18. Can you imagine that the market cap of a BSE listed company is only Rs.5.63 Cr!!

Hence this absurd price of Rs.3-5, cannot remain long—the aberration would be corrected soon. Just buy for 6 months time frame—I am sure your money would get doubled by that time, as the stock in all probability after Q2FY10, results will start to rally again.

Note: These are the excerpts from the Sunday Report sent to Paid Groups.

SEBI okays longer trading hours

Markets can now be open 9 to 5, says regulator.

You could soon be able to trade for an additional two-and-a-half hours on stock exchanges with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Friday allowing trading between 9 a m and 5 p m to align timings to international standards.

At present, trading hours are between 9.55 a m and 3.30 p m.

Sebi, however, raised the caveat that the exchanges would have to ensure that risk management systems and infrastructure commensurate to longer trading hours were in place before investors transact for eight hours a day.

TRADING PLACES
	Local trading hours (a m to p m)
	Cash	Futures & Options
New York	9:30 to 4:00	6.00 to 5.00*
Singapore	9:00 to 5:00	9:00 to 5:00
Tokyo	9:00 to 2:00	9:00 to 7:00
London	8:00 to 4:20	8:00 to 9:00
India (now)	9:55 to 3:30	9:55 to 3:30
India (soon)	9:00 to 5:00	9:00 to 5:00
Source: Bloomberg * 23 hrs

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) welcomed the Sebi move and added that they would soon extend trade timings. They, however, did not clarify whether timings would be extended to 5 p m, though executives indicated that trading would start at 9 a m.

Last year, NSE had first proposed a change in trading hours at a time when foreign institutional investors and hedge funds preferred to trade on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX), where NSE Nifty futures were also listed. With longer trading hours because SGX opened for trading at around 6.30 a m India time, the open interest positions on Nifty futures traded on SGX had reached close to the levels seen on NSE.

“Extending trading hours will improve liquidity and volumes in the market,” said Motilal Oswal, chairman and managing director, Motilal Oswal Securities, adding that the move could also help shift a part of the trading back to the Indian exchanges.

Asked about longer trading hours, a BSE spokesperson said, “We welcome the Sebi directive and we are well-prepared.”

Currency derivatives trading starts at 9 a m and ends at 5 p m, so extending trading hours to equity and equity derivative segment should not be difficult.

Market participants, however, said widespread changes would be required for exchanges to allow trading for eight hours a day. Banks that are involved in settlement, brokerages and exchanges could see an increase in manpower costs , executives said.

They said the risk and collateral management systems would need to be revamped. Further, trade margins would have to be increased and the infrastructure at brokerages, banks and depositories need to be upgraded to handle the additional pressure.

"Though it's a good move that will help us synchronise with the global markets, it may affect productivity because the time for analysis will get squeezed. It will delay the net asset value declaration of mutual funds by at least an hour," said a fund manager with a domestic mutual fund.

“It’s a very positive step. It’s just that market participants will have to realign some processes to deal with longer trading hours,” said Bhavesh Zaveri, head of wholesale banking operations and cash management products at HDFC Bank, the country's largest settlement bank.

An executive at a leading settlement bank said counters would have to open around 8 a m to allow brokers to move funds before trading started. Similarly, the Reserve Bank of India would have to allow real time gross settlement up to 6 p m instead of the 4.30 p m deadline at present, another banker said.

Further, exchanges would have to realign their systems to ensure that pay-in-pay-out files related to settlements are completed faster. At present, when trading finished at 3.30 p m, banks and depositories receive the information related to payments and transfer of shares around 8.30 p m. “This needs to be crunched because we would already be open for 12 hours a day,” said a bank executive.

In addition, a bank executive said entities that are not settlement banks would also need to work longer hours to deal with broker transactions.

Stocks rise as financial, consumer stocks gainStocks rebound as upbeat earnings reports push investors into financial, consumer stocks

Phoenix International Ltd and Southern Online Bio Technologies Ltd hit another consecutive buyer freeze.

BUY ON DECLINES SHOULD BE THE STRATEGY APPLIED, as November--December effect is round the corner. This is the time when the small and mid-cap counters give maximum return--hence please focus on this space.

Some of the stocks which could be potential multibaggers are: Sanguine Media Services Ltd, Accentia Technologies Ltd, Energy Development Company Ltd, Refex Refrigerants Ltd, Country Club Ltd, SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd, Pyramid Saimira Theatres Ltd, Glory Polyfilms Ltd, etc.

NEW YORK -- Investors encouraged by a good batch of earnings reports and forecasts jumped back into stocks after a two-day slide.

Stocks posted big gains Thursday after Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said it expects sales to grow this year and increase at a faster pace next year. At the same time, easing worries about loan losses at some banks made financial stocks look attractive.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 132 points and logged the biggest gains of major indexes after Wal-Mart's forecast and as a number of companies that make up the indicator reported earnings that surpassed expectations.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index lagged after a disappointing forecast from online retailer eBay Inc. but still ended higher.

The market's climb comes a day after a late slide pushed major indexes lower. Lingering concerns over whether investors had been too optimistic about an economic rebound fed into the drop.

Consumer stocks rose after Wal-Mart said it expects sales to increase 1 to 2 percent for the current fiscal year and 4 to 6 percent for next year. The nation's largest retailer also said it would focus on emerging markets when opening stores. Meanwhile, clothing retailer J. Crew Group Inc. raised its earnings forecast because of stronger sales and profit margins.

Investors were also encouraged by earnings reports from the banks PNC Financial Services Group Inc. and Fifth Third Bancorp, which each said the number of bad loans aren't mounting as fast as they had been. That helped to push financial stocks higher.

Dow components 3M Co., Travelers Cos., AT&T Inc. and McDonald's Corp. posted stronger results than analysts had forecast.

Adam Gould, senior portfolio manager at Direxion Funds in New York, said the market's bounce on the Wal-Mart forecast illustrates how difficult it is to keep stocks down and allow those who missed the seven-month run to get stocks at lower prices.

"People have wanted to see some type of correction but whenever any earnings come out and beat and whenever any economic news comes out that is decent, the market rallies," he said.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow rose 131.95, or 1.3 percent, to 10,081.31.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 11.51, or 1.1 percent, to 1,092.91. The Nasdaq rose 14.56, or 0.7 percent, to 2,165.29.

Two stocks rose for every two that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.3 billion shares compared with 1.4 billion Wednesday.

IREDA pays Rs 11.25 cr dividend

New Delhi, Oct 22 : Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited (IREDA), a Public Sector Enterprise under the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy(MNRE), today presented a dividend of Rs 11.25 crore for the financial year 2008-09 to the government.

The dividend cheque was presented to the Minister for New and Renewable Energy Dr Farooq Abdullah by CMD, IREDA, Debashish Majumdar at a function held here. Congratulating the PSU on its achievement, Dr Abdullah said he was happy to note that it had registered the dividend in double digits for the first time. During the year 2008-09, IREDA's performance has been rated as 'Excellent' in terms of MoU signed with the Government of India.IRED'A sanctioned 47 projects involving loan commitment of Rs 1489.93 crore registering an impressive growth of 80.35 per cent. IREDA disbursed a sum of Rs 770.95 crore during the year registering a growth of 39.25 per cent. Cumulatively, it has sanctioned 1,892 projects involving loan commitment of Rs 10,355.58 crore and cumulative disbursement of Rs 5,754.05 crore till March 31, 2009. The loan sanctioned during the year 2008-09 will result in establishment of additional renewable power generation capacity of about 403.75 MW. IREDA is poised for further growth reflecting the need for increased power generation through Renewable Energy Sources in line with the National Action Plan on Climate Change.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

U.S. front-month crude briefly hit $82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

This time also I predicted the upward movement of Crude Oil price correctly. If you remember, a day after I spoke of breaking $75 per barrel mark, the crude started to move up and it broke that magic barrier. Now the next target for the Crude Oil seems to be $92 per barrel.

Southern Online Biotech Ltd, the last week's Quickie call, hit the 7th consecutive buyer freeze. I have already mentioned why the scrip should be purchased.

Accentia Technologies Ltd (BSE Code: 531897) recommended today again hit the buyer freeze before cooling down a bit. The stock could be heading towards the Rs.200 mark within a very short time. There is a report on the company at www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com.

Sanguine Media Services Ltd went in for a minor correction as the stock fell by 5%. The scrip is expected to cross Rs.7-8, by January, 2010. The company is doing excellently well and all dips should be used to accumulate the scrip. The company has a very little equity capital and hence once it starts hitting upper circuits, it is very difficult to get the same.

Phoenix International Ltd hit another buyer freeze with good number of pending orders. The buoyancy in crude oil prices and other developments mentioned earlier, is making the stock run.

Energy Development Company Ltd is consolidating at the current price trend before moving up suddenly before the declaration of the results. In all probability the results of the company for Q2FY10, woud be good.

My recommended Faze Three Ltd nearly hit the buyer freeze. There is a report on the company at: www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com. SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd also did well today.

Asian Oilfield Services Ltd which was recommended last week at Rs.57.5 hit the buyer freezes as it closed above Rs.70. However, some profits should be booked at the current prices. .

Northgate Technologies Ltd is expected to come up with better than expected results for Q2FY10, hence try to accumlate the scrip before it moves out of ur horizon. The stock which was once trading around Rs.1500, is avaialable at the price of penny.

Also note that XL Telecom and Energy is more a renewable energy company like Southern Online Bio Technologies Ltd and less of Telecom business. The stock should move up very soon as the crude oil prices are hotting up.

The key benchmark indices slumped on weak global stocks and lower US index futures. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) fell in volatile trade as the hearing on a gas dispute with Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) continued in the Supreme Court for the second day in a row today, 21 October 2009. RIL was primarily responsible for volatility in the Sensex.

Bank stocks fell on concern a proposed new interest rate system will intensify competition among lenders. Metal, FMCG and auto stocks also edged lower. The market breadth was negative in contrast to a strong breath in early trade.

The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 213.84 points or 1.24%, off close to 240 points from the day's high and up close to 15 points from the day's low. The Sensex fell below psychological 17,000 mark level for a short while in late trade before regaining that level. A section of the market is concerned that a glut in share sales by Indian firms may suck liquidity from the secondary market.

As per provisional data, foreign funds today, 21 October 2009, dumped stocks worth a net Rs 511.81 crore. Domestic funds offloaded stocks worth a net Rs 290.91 crore.

Intraday volatility was high. The market drifted lower in choppy early trade on subdued Asian stocks and lower US index futures. It soon bounced back in morning trade and moved into green from red. But the intraday recovered proved short lived as the market once again slipped into the red. The market cut losses after hitting a fresh intraday day low in early afternoon trade. The Sensex hit a fresh intraday low in mid-afternoon trade. It soon trimmed losses. The market slumped in late trade on weak global stocks.

The Prime Minister's economic advisory council today, 21 October 2009, said the economy is likely to grow 6.5% in 2009/10 with inflation at around 6 % by the end of March 2010. The panel also forecast a consolidated fiscal deficit, which includes shortfalls at the state level, of 10.09 % of GDP in the current fiscal year, compared with 8.6% last year, and the influential panel urged a return to fiscal consolidation.

The panel of advisers headed by former central bank governor C. Rangarajan said growth in the current fiscal year would be at least 6.25% and could reach 6.75%. The panel said the recently poor summer monsoon would erode farm output in the current fiscal year by 2% although 8.2% growth in both the industrial and services sectors would help offset that. Rangarajan said growth in the fiscal year that ends in March 2011 would accelerate to 7 to 8%.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Tuesday the Indian economy will expand at 6-6.5% in the year to March 2010, despite uncertainty whether signs of a global recovery will lead to a return to a sustained growth path. Singh also said the drought in the country, the worst in decades, had further hit the poorest sections of its people.

Govinda Rao, a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council today, 21 October 2009, said the government may collect Rs 4 lakh crore as direct tax for the current fiscal year ending March 2010. There is an unexpected increase in recent direct tax collections, he said.

According to a survey by Hewitt Associates, base salary levels in India are poised to jump nearly 10% in 2010 as the Asian region continues to rebound from global recession. Salaries in Indonesia and China will also surge, by 8.7% and 6.7% respectively, according to the survey. The survey covered more than 2,000 local and joint-venture companies in the Asia-Pacific region.

Rangarajan said today, 21 October 2009, the central bank's accommodative monetary policy may continue until the end of March 2010, with the need for tightening once inflation picks up.

Finance secretary Ashok Chawla said on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would hopefully continue its current easy monetary stance when it reviews policy later this month as it was justified for the present economic scenario. The RBI governor D Subbarao is scheduled to meet the Prime Minister and finance ministry officials on 23 October 2009 to review the economic situation ahead of the policy.

Faster industrial output growth and rising inflationary pressures have strengthened case for an end to the RBI's accommodative monetary stance next year. Industrial output grew at its fastest pace in 22 months in August at 10.4 %.

The RBI pumped in massive liquidity in the banking system in the past one year or so to help revive the domestic economy in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. While as exit from the loose monetary policy is imminent, speculation on the bourses is the timing of the exit policy. The RBI is expected to keep its benchmark lending and borrowing rates on hold at a quarterly monetary policy review on 27 October 2009.

The supply of paper by Indian firms appear limitless, raising concerns that additional share sales will suck liquidity from the secondary equity market. As per reports, Indian firms have garnered about $9 billion (Rs 32,400 crore at the current exchange rates) through sale of shares and convertible bonds to institutional buyers since April 2009. Indian companies are taking advantage of a surge in liquidity to recapitalize and fund capital expenditure after being starved of cash last year.

Most of these companies - from industries ranging from liquor and spirits to infotech - issued equity shares to a select group of investors by way of qualified institutional placement or QIP. If the enabling resolutions passed by the companies are any indication, Indian firms are gearing up to raise $15 billion (Rs 69,427 crore) in the next six months. The list includes Hindalco (Rs 2,900 crore), JSW Steel ($1 billion), India Cements ($100 million), Essar Oil ($2 billion), Tata Steel (Rs 5,000 crore), Jet Airways ($ 400 million) and Bharat Forge ($150 million).

Unlisted Reliance Infratel announced on 22 September 2009 its intention to raise Rs 5,000 crore from the primary market. Divestment of state-run firms by the government may also increase the supply of paper in the market.

The government on Monday approved stake sales in state-run power producer NTPC and another unlisted power firm Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam which reflects the country's resolve to speed up reforms and raise more resources for social schemes. On Monday, Trade Minister Anand Sharma said the Union Cabinet had approved a 5% stake sale in NTPC, and 10% in, an unlisted power producer. On Friday, 16 October 2009, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said many state-run firms are eager to list their shares in the stock market as it would help unlock their value.

The government has approved a follow-on public offering of 20% of state run Steel Authority of India, the steel minister said on Wednesday, 21 October 2009. The Government of India owns nearly 86% of Sail.

Stock and sector-specific activity may dominate trade on the bourses in the coming days based on expectations on Q2 September 2009 results. Auto firms are seen reporting strong Q2 results on strong volume growth and on lower input costs. Lower interest rates and pay hike for government employees has boosted auto sales this year after last year's slowdown in demand. Government employees have started receiving the balance 60% of their wage arrears as per the recommendations of the VIth Pay Commission.

Cement firms, too, are seen reporting good Q2 numbers on the back of volume growth, higher realisation and decline in costs like imported coal. Metal firms are seen reporting fall in net profit due to a sharp fall in metal prices on year-on-year basis.

Fall in volumes in the commercial property segment and lower realisations in both commercial and residential property segments, will pull earnings of realty firms lower.

Banks are seen reporting a sedate growth in core lending amid sluggish credit offtake. On the flip side, PSU banks will benefit from treasury gains amid volatility in prices of government securities during the quarter.

Strong growth in new subscriber additions will aid topline growth of telecom firms. But falling average revenue per user (ARPU) and revenue per minute due to intense competition will cap bottom line growth.

European shares pulled back from early gains in a choppy session on Wednesday, with Peugeot, Deutsche Bank and PPR Group all declining after updating on third-quarter progress. The key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were down by between 1.22% to 1.63%.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 in favor of the decision to leave its asset purchase plan unchanged at 175 billion pounds and to maintain its key lending rate at a historic low of 0.5%, according to minutes of the 7-8 October 2009 meeting released Wednesday.

Asian stocks declined today led by materials and technology companies, on declines in commodity prices and worse-than-forecast US housing starts. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, China, Singapore and Taiwan fell by between 0.3% to 0.67%.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura on Wednesday warned that the downside risks facing the country's economy remain high, meaning the central bank must stick to its easy monetary policy for now. Nishimura said the biggest risk facing the Japanese economy remained the world economic outlook. The bank's main scenario is for the world economy to return to moderate growth, but Nishimura also outlined some of the risks to that scenario.

China banking regulators warned Wednesday about rising risks in the sector and urged banks to keep their lending within reasonable levels in the current quarter, according to a media report Wednesday. The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), which expressed the view in comments made during a video-and-teleconference call with banks across the country Wednesday, did not spell out what it viewed as an appropriate lending level.

In a later statement that was posted on its Website, the CBRC also urged banks to closely monitor possible repercussions on market liquidity caused by global capital flows, macroeconomic trend changes, or policy adjustment.

US stock futures on Wednesday pointed to a second straight day of declines, ahead of a slate of earnings from Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley and an assessment of the economy from the Federal Reserve. Trading in US index futures indicated Dow could fall 56 points at the opening bell on Wednesday, 21 October 2009.

US markets retreated on Tuesday on poor economic data even though several earnings reports beat expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 50.71 points, or 0.5%, to 10,041.48. The S&P 500 index fell 6.85 points, or 0.6%, to 1,091.06. The Nasdaq Composite index was down 12.85 points, or 0.6%, to 2,163.47.

In the day's economic news, housing starts were the bigger disappointment gaining 0.5% last month, less than the 2.8% increase expected. In earnings from the US, Yahoo reported a profit that was higher than last year and went past expectations.

The Obama administration will shutter programs at the heart of a $700 billion financial bailout but remains focused on supporting a fledgling economic recovery, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in an interview to a news agency on Tuesday. The administration will focus on "more-targeted programs directed at what are the principal areas where there's still weakness in access to credit," he said, specifically citing housing and small businesses.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen said Tuesday that the Fed is not likely to tighten monetary conditions during the next few months and still has not decided on which tool to use first when it decides it's time to drain extra liquidity out of the system.

Hedge funds attracted $1.1 billion from investors in the third quarter ended September 2009, ending a one-year streak of net withdrawals, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc. More than two-thirds of hedge funds experienced inflows in the quarter. Funds with assets of more than $5 billion experienced outflows while those with less than $500 million attracted money in the quarter. Meanwhile, hedge fund manager Galleon Group's founder Raj Rajaratnam was arrested Friday, 16 October 2009, on charges of insider trading. Galleon Hedge Fund, which currently has assets under management of about $3.7 billion, has a 7% stake in broking firm Edelweiss Capital, 4.6% stake in construction firm Shriram EPC and 0.3% stake in Pipavav Shipyard.

Rajaratnam's lawyer has insisted his client isn't guilty of the charges. But investors in the group's funds could follow the lead of Rochdale Investment Management, which said Monday it was liquidating its stake in the Galleon Diversified fund. If enough investors left Galleon, managers at the firm could be forced to sell shares of companies it owns in order to meet those redemptions. Galleon could also seek to prevent investors from redeeming money immediately.

Emerging-market equity fund inflows surged in the second week of October 2009 on optimism improving US earnings and China's trade figures signal increased demand for commodities, fund tracker EPFR Global said on Friday, 16 October 2009. Heavy inflows were seen in funds specialized in BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China. Asia ex-Japan funds received $823 million in the week ended 14 October 2009.

The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 213.84 points or 1.24% to 17,009.17. The Sensex rose 25.68 points at the day's high of 17,248.69 in early trade. The barometer index fell 225.15 points at the day's low of 16,997.86 in late trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty fell 50.85 points or 0.99% to 5,063.60. Nifty October 2009 futures were at 5,068.20, at a premium of 4.60 points as compared to the spot closing of 5,063.60. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment was Rs 67,937 crore, lower than Rs 74,134.92 crore on Tuesday, 20 October 2009.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 5976 crore, higher than Rs 5351.43 crore on Tuesday, 20 October 2009.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market turned negative in contrast to a strong breadth in early trade. On BSE, 1173 shares advanced as compared with 1555 that declined. A total of 95 shares remained unchanged. Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 24 fell while the rest rose.

With foreign funds making heavy purchases, the Sensex is up 7,361.86 points or 76.3% in calendar year 2009 as on 21 October 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex is up 8848.77 points or 108.43% as on 21 October 2009. FII inflow in the calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 68,476.30 crore (till 20 October 2009).

Coming back to today's trade, the BSE Mid-Cap index fell 1.07% and outperformed the Sensex. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.23% and outperformed the Sensex.

Sectoral indices on BSE displayed mixed trend. The BSE Auto index (down 2.36%), the BSE FMCG index (down 2.06%), the BSE Bankex (down 2%), the BSE Metal index (down 1.69%), the BSE Healthcare index (down 1.38%), underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Realty index (up 0.26%), the BSE Teck index (up 0.04%), the BSE IT index (up 0.03%), the BSE Power index (down 0.42%), the BSE Capital Goods index (down 0.51%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (down 0.58%), the BSE PSU index (down 1.17%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (down 1.22%), outperformed the Sensex.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries was flat at Rs 2182.45. The stock hit a high of Rs 2209 and a low of Rs 2169.95. Reliance Industries (RIL) counsel Harish Salve said Wednesday he will present his arguments in the gas dispute case with Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) by 29 October 2009. The case is being heard in Supreme Court by a three-judge bench, headed by the Chief Justice of India, K.G. Balakrishnan.

There has to be some process to reach a suitable arrangement, the court said, suggesting arbitration, third-party intervention, mutual settlement and legal resolution as options.

Salve on Tuesday argued in the Supreme Court that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between the members of the Ambani family on 18 June 2005, was not binding on the company, as it had never been shown to its board of directors. But even if it was, RIL would be unable to supply 28 million standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd) of gas to RNRL at $2.34 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) as it contradicted the government's gas pricing and utilisation policy, Mr Salve said. The proceedings, which lasted for over two hours, were marked by interjections from the three-judge bench.

The apex court will have to rule on a number of issues. Apart from the main dispute, as to whether a valid contract exists and what is the correct price, it will have to decide if the government can intervene in the case.

Meanwhile, the government on Tuesday formed an Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee to allocate additional gas from the RIL's field to new users. Besides Mukherjee and Deora, the EGoM would include Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde, Fertilizer Minister M K Alagiri, Law Minister Veerappa Moily and Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia.

PSU OMCs were mixed after Govinda Rao, a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, there is no need to raise fuel prices, if global oil prices remain in the range of $70 to $75 a barrel. BPCL, HPCL fell by between 1.14% to 2.94%. But, Indian Oil Corporation rose 2.04%.

Rao said the government expects international crude oil prices to hover around $70 to $75 per barrel. If prices go beyond that consistently, then the numbers will have to change, Rao said. Rise in crude oil prices normally results in under recoveries for PSU OMCs on domestic sale of petrol, diesel, kerosene and LPG at controlled prices.

Crude oil prices fell on Wednesday as investors took profits after a recent rally sent the market above 80 dollars for the first time in one year. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for December delivery, fell 1.04 dollars to 78.08 dollars a barrel. The November 2009 contract, which had expired Tuesday, briefly touched 80.05 dollars -- the highest level for New York crude since 14 October 2008.

Bank stocks fell after a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) panel on Tuesday proposed a transparent pricing structure for floating rate loans wherein benchmark rates get automatically revised on shrinking cost of funds. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank fell 1.62% as its ADR fell 1.26% on Tuesday. The bank recently reduced auto loan rates by 50 basis points.

India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank fell 1.67% as its ADR rose fell 2.6% on Tuesday. The bank's net profit rose 30.2% to Rs 687.46 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The results, which hit the market last week, were more or less in line with market expectations. India's largest bank by branch network State Bank of India fell 3.24%. SBI has reportedly raised $750 million (around Rs 3500 crore) in the overseas market through five-year bonds as part of its medium-term note programme (MTN). SBI's $5 billion MTN programme was launched in 2004. It targets investors, including banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and private equities in the global market.

Among other PSU Stocks, Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank fell by between 0.68% to 4.46%.

Bank of India lost 2.99%, after the Reserve Bank of India barred further buying in the state-run bank's shares by foreign institutional investors without its prior permission.

The committee headed by RBI executive director Deepak Mohanty has suggested discontinuing the usage of a bank's prime lending rate (PLR) as the benchmark for variable rate loans. Instead, it wants banks to arrive at a base rate that reflects the cost of one-year deposits and price loans over this base rate.

The panel has also proposed a ceiling on the extent of loans that can be granted below the benchmark rate. Most banks typically pass on the benefit of falling rates only to fresh customers. RBI governor D Subbarao has repeatedly said though the central bank has slashed its repo rate (at which it lends to banks) by 425 basis points in the last one year, prime lending rates of banks have fallen by only around 200 basis points.

Lenders currently offer loans at less than the benchmark prime lending rate to about 10 categories of borrowers, according to the central bank. Some of these loans are at rates that don't "make much commercial sense" for the banks, according to the report.

Meanwhile, the central bank may hike the ceiling on the portion of government securities that banks can park in held-to-maturity (HTM) category, possibly at a quarterly monetary policy review on 27 October 2009. Banks do not have to make any mark-to-market provisions on securities held this basket if prices of securities fall. Provisions have to be made out of profit and therefore, impact a bank's bottom line. Yields on ten-year government bonds have risen sharply this year. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related.

Indian banks can put bonds equal to 25% of the value of deposits in their HTM accounts. The market expectations is for an increase in the ceiling by up to 2 percentage points.

India's largest dedicated housing finance firm HDFC fell 3.07%. HDFC, last week, announced its net profit rose 24.27% to Rs 663.94 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The results beat market expectations.

India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro was flat. Strong project execution is seen driving growth in L&T's top line and bottom line in Q2 September 2009. A total of five brokerages expect a between 19% to 42.3% growth in L&T's net profit at between 546.30 crore to Rs 654.70 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. L&T unveils Q2 September 2009 results on Thursday, 22 October 2009.

India's largest power maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals fell 0.98%. Strong project execution, fall in input costs and lower employee costs are seen driving growth in Bhel's top line and bottom line in Q2 September 2009. Metal prices were sharply on year on year basis which will help boost margins of the power equipment major. Further, Bhel had provided Rs 116 crore for wage hike provisions in Q2 September 2008 which had pulled down profit in that quarter. The margins will rise with no such provision in Q2 September 2009.

A total of seven brokerages expect a between 10.8% to 32.4% growth in Bhel's net profit at between Rs 681.50 crore to Rs 815.40 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. Their expectations peg a between 24.8% to 28% growth in revenue at between Rs 6667.70 crore to Rs 6838.60 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. Bhel unveils Q2 September 2009 results on Friday, 23 October 2009.

Among other capital goods stocks, ABB, Praj Industries, BEML, Siemens, Thermax, fell by between 0.23% to 4.02%.

Auto stocks fell on profit taking. India's top small car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India fell 2.6%. The company's total sales rose 17.3% to 83,306 vehicles in September 2009 over September 2008. The figures were released during trading hours on 1 October 2009.

India's largest truck maker by sales Tata Motors fell 2.86%. Tata Motors said after market hours on Tuesday it has acquired full control of Spanish bus and coach manufacturer Hispano Carrocera by acquiring the remaining 79% stake in the firm. Tata Motors had a 21 % stake in the Spain-based company since 2005, it added.

Bajaj Auto fell 1.91%. Bajaj Auto's net profit jumped 117.85% to Rs 402.83 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. The company announced the Q2 results during trading hours on 15 October 2009.

India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra fell 1.89%. Total sales rose 10.94% to 28434 vehicles in September 2009 over September 2008. The company unveiled the sales figures during trading hours on 1 October 2009.

India's largest motor bike maker by sales Hero Honda Motors fell 2.9% ahead of its Q2 September 2009 result today. Hero Honda is seen reporting robust Q2 results on the back of higher volumes and surge in profit margins due to fall in input costs. A total of nine brokerages expect a between 59.1% to 83.1% growth in Hero Honda's net profit at between Rs 487.20 crore to Rs 560.70 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008.

Total domestic automobile sales in the country in the first half of the financial year 2009-10 rose by 14.51% year-on-year to 57,82,920 units, according to automobile sales figures released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam). The jump in sales for the April-September period came from the double-digit growth posted by the passenger vehicle segment (comprising cars and sports utility vehicles) which grew by 13.46%, by the 15.68% spurt in two-wheeler sales and by an increase of 12.37% in sales of three-wheelers.

FMCG stocks fell on profit taking. Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Tea, Dabur India, fell by between 0.88% to 3.1%.

United Spirits lost 2.29%, on worries of equity dilution, after the company raised Rs 1615.60 crore through a share sale to institutional investors.

Metal stocks fell as LMEX, a gauge of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange, fell 0.96% on Tuesday. Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel & Power fell by between 0.04% to 3.96%.

Steel Authority of India (Sail) fell 2.13% after the steel minister said the government has approved a follow-on public offering of 20%. The government holds 85.82% stake in Sail.

India's largest copper maker by sales Sterlite Industries fell 1.43%. The company, last week, raised $500 million in convertible senior notes and plans to use the proceeds primarily for expansion of its copper business. The notes are convertible into American depositary shares at $23.33 per share.

Realty stocks rose on recent reports that demand for residential projects in major cities is picking up on lower home loan rates, property price cuts by developers and a recovery in the job market. Realty market had slumped last year amid a global credit crunch and buyers fearing job losses. Indiabulls Real Estate, Omaxe, Ansal Properties, DLF rose by between 0.61% to 3.14%.

India's largest thermal power generator by sales NTPC rose 0.1% extending gains for the second straight day after the Union Cabinet on Monday, 19 October 2009, approved a 5% stake sale in the firm by the government.

Ultratech Cement fell 2.25% after the company issued a cautious outlook at the time of announcing Q2 results late last week. Net profit jumped 53% to Rs 251 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008.

UltraTech said the performance was affected on a sequential basis due to lower demand in Southern India. The net profit dropped 39.94% to Rs 250.90 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q1 June 2009.

The company said the cement demand may grow 9% in the year ending March 2010 on the back of government's initiative to boost rural development, infrastructure and housing. It, however, said new capacities which at various stages of implementation will result in pressure on margins.

The company said its focus on higher volume growth, captive power generation and capital productivity will help offset the impact of lower prices on margins.

Among other cement stocks, ACC, Grasim Industries, Birla Corporation and Ambuja Cements, fell by between 0.66% to 2.67%.

Jaiprakash Associates fell 3.56% ahead of its Q2 September 2009 result today. Strong order book and higher cement realization are seen driving growth at construction and cement firm Jaiprakash Associates (JAL) in Q2 September 2009. A total of 6 brokerages expect a between a 4.7% fall to a 21.7% growth in JAL's net profit at between Rs 193.50 crore to Rs 247.20 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008. Their expectations peg a between 64.4% to 83.6% growth in revenue at between 1944.80 crore to Rs 2170.80 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008.

IT stocks rose after Yahoo Inc, the top US seller of online display ads, reported better-than-expected results on Tuesday. India's third largest software services exporter Wipro rose 0.41% even as its ADR fell 0.43% on Tuesday.

India's largest software services exporter TCS rose 1.94%. The company after market hours on 16 October 2009, reported stronger-than-expected Q2 September 2009 results. Consolidated net profit as per US accounting standards rose 6.81% to Rs 1623.90 crore on 3.16% growth in revenue to Rs 7435.10 crore in Q2 September 2009 over Q1 June 2009.

TCS has a good business pipeline and is pursuing 20 to 25 large outsourcing deals, chief executive N. Chandrasekaran said at the time of announcing Q2 results. The management is seeing signs of recovery but it believes it will be slow. The discretionary spent is still tight but there is spent seen in banking, finance services and insurance (BFSI), retail, utility and pharma verticals, TCS said at a conference call after the results. However, a continuous improvement in volumes cannot be expected, it said. The company is seeing stability in demand environment. The management expects to maintain margins at current levels provided there is no adverse rupee movement.

But, IT bellwether Infosys Technologies fell 0.92%. Its ADR rose 0.27% on Tuesday. Infosys raised its earnings and revenue guidance in both dollar and rupee terms for the year ending March 2010 (FY 2010) at the time of announcing Q2 September 2009 results before trading hour on 9 October 2009. Infosys, however, said strengthening rupee is a big concern for its earnings. A stronger rupee negatively impacts operating margins of IT firms as the sector earns a lion's share of revenue from exports. The rupee is hovering near its highest level in more than a year.

Telecom stocks were mixed after finance secretary Ashok Chawla said on Tuesday the auctions for the 3G spectrum would take place by December this year. India's largest mobile services provider by market share Bharti Airtel rose 1.22%.

The Department of Telecommunications had earlier said that the auction would start from 7 December 2009, though there are apprehensions about the date since the defence forces are yet to vacate spectrum. The auction has already been postponed several times. With the availability of 3G spectrum, telecom companies are expected to offer a combined mobile and internet platforms.

India's second largest mobile services provider by sales Reliance Communications (RCom) fell 0.06%. Anil Ambani chairman of RCom on Thursday, 15 October 2009, alleged there was a 'vicious and malafide' campaign against his telecom company Reliance Communications by a 'known rival group' and dubbed the special audit report, which claimed that RCom was mis-stating its revenues as 'biased and prejudiced'. But the auditor, Parekh & Co defended its work and also denied a claim by Mr Ambani that it had not sought feedback from RCom.

Sugar stocks fell after government extended tax free white sugar imports till December 2010 to improve supplies to tide over a shortage. Balrampur Chini, Bajaj Hindustan, Shree Renuka Sugars, fell by between 4.32% to 7.07%.

Cals Refineries clocked highest volume of 3.05 crore shares on BSE. Ispat Industries (1.19 crore shares), Unitech (1.15 crore shares), GVK Power & Infrastructure (0.75 crore shares) and SpiceJet (0.69 crore shares) were among the other volume gainers in that order.

DLF clocked highest turnover of Rs 238.02 crore on BSE. Housing Development & Infrastructure (Rs 170.94 crore), State Bank of India (Rs 155.16 crore), Sesa Goa (Rs 135.86 crore) and Infosys (Rs 131.14 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

Northgate Technologies Ltd hits the buyer freeze. The stock was recommended to the Paid Groups today. The company is expected to come up with better than expected results in Q2FY10. There are also some other news in the counter.

Sanguine Media Services Ltd hit the buyer freeze on the opening trade before cooling down a bit. The stock is headed higher in the days to come as the Q2FY10, results of the company which is expected to be declared at the end of this month, in all probability will be good.

Asian Oilfields Ltd reached its target of Rs.63, in the short time as it touched Rs.66.75, at the dying hours of the trading day. Most of the members were asked to book profits in the counter.

Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd touched Rs.9.91, today after it was recommended at around Rs.4 to the Paid members, due to some positive news in the counter. However, profit booking was advised in the counter.

Energy Development Company Ltd moved to Rs.71.10, before closing at Rs.68.05, a rise of 1.11% over yesterday's closing price. The company is doing more than 200 Mw of projects in Arunachal Pradesh alone and the stock is trading at Rs.68. What a joke??!! The company earlier informed that 35,00,000 Warrants were allotted to Promoters and Non-Promoters' Group on January 15, 2008 @ Rs 200/- each. The scrip is expected to cross Rs.100 within a very short time.

Now with the overall positive setup and fairly stable underlying strength coming from the upward sloping trendline around the XXXX mark, in case of Nifty, the markets are expected to remain buoyant in the next few trading sessions.

Investors need to keep holding on their long or initiate fresh longs as long as a clear trend reversal is not witnessed on the daily/weekly charts. However, one should focus their attention more on the small and mid-cap counters. I have already recommended Faze Three Ltd to the Paid Groups.

Dr.Ben Bernake's Economic--Drug Therapy; Use it and suggest others to follow the leader:

Praises Asian Countries for their economic Bullwarks:

From Suman Mukherjee's desk

Dr.Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of US Federal Reserves, talked of enforcing some bitter prescriptions to iron out some global trade imbalances; which may not be liked by most of the Americans.

“The United States must increase its national saving rate,” he said.

“The most effective way to accomplish this goal is by establishing a sustainable fiscal trajectory, anchored by a clear commitment to substantially reduce federal deficits over time.”

US and Saving??!!

Are you joking Mr. Bernanke ??!!

Do you want to make US another Japan!! Lol....

But then jokes apart, this could be the effective panacea, coming from an expert on economic depressions world over to lower, America's foreign indebtedness.

Speaking at a conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mr. Bernanke said Asian countries had bounced back from the global recession faster than the rest of the world and had become the engine of the global economic recovery.

“By and large, countries in Asia came into the crisis with fairly strong macroeconomic fundamentals,” Mr. Bernanke said, and noted that countries like China, Japan and Korea had fought the downturn with aggressive stimulus programs.With the Asian economy expanding at an annualized rate of 9 % the second quarter of this year, and Chinese economy expanding at rates of more than 10%, Mr. Bernanke said, “Asia appears to be leading the global recovery. "Kya Bat Hai doctoji!!"

Meanwhile the dollar has dropped sharply in recent weeks against the euro and the Japanese Yen, which has helped increase American exports by making them cheaper in some foreign markets.

But what is alarming is that the dollar has not budged in more than a year against China’s renminbi, as the Chinese continue to tightly manage and which many economists say remains greatly undervalued.

Futher, Dr.Bernanke, called upon the Asian countries to rely less on exports and more on their consumption at home for their economic growth. However, I would like to see some specific suggestions ONLY for India without clubbing it together with BRIC countries.

Conclusion: We stand among the falling débris of econmic thunder-storm. What is important to note is that, the trust on the US banking system is rising fast and capitalism expanding.

However, no economic, industrial, social and cultural system can endure long which is based on the fact that 20 per cent of the population, conservatively speaking, own seventy per cent of the wealth.

Thus the system aberrations needs to be corrected fast so that futher economic catastrophes can be avoided.

Chaos gives birth to dancing stars only if we breathe into it that visible, audible fragrance of passion, which is poetry. It seems the world will be born again by rune, spell, incantation and evocation of our latest poet, in economic landscape, un-polluted by Nobel baggage, Dr.Ben Bernanke.

Moreover, it remains also to be seen how the world economies open mental windows, pushing back "cold-horizons", revealing new Heavens and lead us back with a fresh vision to conquer the "Economic Eden" once again.

Jai Ho!!

Vijayi Bhavo!!

Government approves divestment in power firms

Good news for the shareholders of the Power Sector, but I have always liked Strategic Divestments of PSUs, rather than through open market.

Off-late the Power sector has been debated over valuations. But what I feel that one should now focus mainly on the mid and small cap stocks in this sector.

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a proposal to divest stake in state-run utilities NTPC Ltd and Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Ltd (SJVN). The government will offload 5 percent of its equity in NTPC and 10 percent in SJVN, Commerce Minister Anand Sharma said here Monday. At the present valuation, the government will be able to raise over Rs.8,800 crore by divesting 5 percent stake in NTPC, which generates over 30,000 MW of power.

The government's shareholding in the company would come down to 84.5 percent after the divestment, Sharma told reporters.

"After disinvestment it is expected that the market capitalisation of NTPC would be higher and it would help the company to raise resources in the international market on competitive terms," he said.

The NTPC's market capitalisation currently stands at Rs.172,000 crore.

The government had earlier clarified that there would be no fresh equity infusion but only the stake sale in NTPC.

SJVN is a 75:25 joint venture between the central government and Himachal Pradesh.

Sharma said the central government's stake would come down to 65 percent after the divestment whereas the state's share would remain at 25 percent.

At present the paid-up equity capital of the company is Rs.4,109 crore.

Indian textiles to take on China in own turf

Nearly USD 10-billion Indian textile and apparel industry, buoyed by a growth in August after nine months of decline and by increased demand from Europe, says it's taking on its biggest competitor by entering the Chinese market.

"We are charting a new course by entering China, the textile behemoth," said Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC) chairman Rakesh Vaid.

"Earlier, we were tied to traditional markets like the US and Europe, where 70 percent of our textiles and apparel are exported. But now we have taken on China, our biggest competitor, on its own turf," Vaid told a news agency.

"China is known for exporting cheap textiles across the globe," he said, adding: "We are far ahead of China in terms of creativity, fashion, designs and the variety of textiles."

India's main competitors are Asian countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Cambodia, apart from China.

"But India has made inroads into these markets as well," the AEPC chairman said. "We have been entering new markets over the last two years."

The move to enter new markets comes at a time when the country's textile sector is facing one of its worst crises with business orders from advanced economies like the US and Europe having fallen sharply due to the global slowdown.

But Vaid said he is "optimistic about the business trends".

"After nine months of consecutive losses and slowdown (since December 2008), the industry logged growth in August," he said.

"Exports to Europe have gathered pace, retail chains there are buffering up inventories for spring-summer. I am just back from Europe. I expect the market to pick up early next year."

According to the council, exports to the US rose 1.39 percent in August over that in July, the same month when exports to America slumped 6.09 percent compared to that in the corresponding month last fiscal.

The August performance comes after garment exports fell 15.4 percent in the first quarter this fiscal, prompting the government to announce a subsidy of Rs.2,546 crore ($535 million) for the crisis-hit sector.

In the $373-billion global clothing industry, India's share has fallen over the years from 3.3 percent to 2.6 percent, amounting to $9.69 billion.

To maintain the current share of 2.6 percent, India needs to export $18 billion worth of clothes annually, requiring 2.7 million additional manpower and investments of $30 billion. The sector employs over 33 million people, and contributes about four percent to the country's gross domestic product (GDP) and 14 percent to its industrial production.

However, the meltdown has taken its toll: companies have reported mounting losses and retrenched staff. "Lately, we have been trimming overheads and manpower, and learning to live without government subsidy," Vaid said.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

Sicagen India Ltd hits the buyer freeze in the opening trade. The company is expected to come up with good results for Q2FY10. The company is also expected to become debt free in the Q2FY10, quarter. The stock is now heading up. The shares of Sicagen India Ltd has good book value.

Sanguine Media Ltd is expected to come up with good results at least sequentially for Q2FY10. There are some good news coming in the company in term of getting contract.

The morning call to the Paid Groups Cords Cable Industries Ltd moves up by more than 6% in the opening trade. There is a report on the company at www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com (SumanSpeaksPlus).

Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd hits the buyer freeze in the opening trade. The comany has successfully established a technically sound, state of the art earth station around Chandigarh with an investment of Rs.22 Cr. This earth station has the capacity to uplink 8 (eight) TV Channels. The company has already got license for KBC News and has got approval for its 2nd Channel KBC Gold. The stock is headed higher.

Phoenix International Ltd hits the buyer freeze on the buoyancy of the crude oil price. The company recently struck a contract with a reputed company for rental of its massive properties in North India in prime locations.

Premium Members were suggested to book some profits in Accentia Technolgies Ltd. The stock was recommended around Rs.105-107, some days back.

I have recommended a power company to the Paid Groups today around the CMP of Rs.70, whose chairman is an MP from Uttar Pradesh. The company is doing a number of Power Projects all over India and especially in the North East. The said MP has recently increased his stake, by buying the holdings of reputed Film-star...which means the said MP has increased his shareholding in the company. THE NAME OF THE COMPANY IS Energy Development Company Limited and earlier Mr.Amitabh Bachchan was a major shareholder of the company. Some good news coming from the company......

It is to be noted film-star Mr.Amitabh Bachchan (Amitabh Srivastava) sold his entire 3.63 per cent stake in Energy Development Corporation Ltd (EDC) to Mr.Amar Singh. Mr Bachchan sold 10 lakh shares of EDC on September 26 according to the disclosure made to BSE. Mr Amar Singh’s shareholding in the company has risen to 5.30 per cent after the above transaction.

Witch hunting has started on Anil Ambani Group Companies (ADAG Group) and his friends by the ruling UPA government at the centre due to the proximity to the Mukesh Ambani to the latter. These are just political events and has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company. Reliance Communications is doing well and is expected to do well in future.

MORE NEWS COMING...KEEP WATCH......

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

Accentia Technologies Ltd hits 3rd consecutive buyer freeze. The FY09, EPS of the company is around Rs.55. The Q1FY10, EPS of the company is around Rs.11.

Morning call to the Paid Groups, Asian Oilfield Services Ltd hit the buyer freeze on the opening trade. Yesterday, I talked out crude oil crossing $75 per barell in the international market in www.facebook.com (It is still there in my profile in Face Book. I have mentioend that the Crude Oil could be moving towards $92-95 per barrel, if it crosses $75 per barrel.'You can go through that in spare time or untill I place that in this blog). Today the miracle happend as the Crude Oil crossed $75 per barrel in one go. Asian Oilfield Services Ltd is into crude oil exploration business. The company is doing projects in Mizoram. Earlier the company got a large contract from ONGC. The company has placed some tenders and it is going to get some more orders.

Morning call Sanguine Media Services Ltd hit the buyer freeze on the opening trade. There are some good news coming in the company.

This week's quickie call Southern Online Bio Technologies Ltd, hit the buyer freeze. There is some good news in the company, which I mentioned earlier. Some more good news is expected from the company's end.

Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd is now being recommended by Economic Times. If you remember I recommended the scrip long back, and at that time any movement in the scrip was thought to be operator driven, though I have been maintaining a different stand.

New subscribers, innovative ways help India outpace China in the Telecom Sector:

India has piped China to become the world's fastest growing telecom market, thanks to the various “innovative” ways such as infrastructure sharing and network management outsourcing adopted by it that has also helped operators keep the service charge low, says a report.Terming India as “world's fastest growing (telecom) market”, global rating agency Moody's today said in the past 18 months, “India's net additions of 10 million (subscribers) per month have far outpaced China's monthly rate of increase, now below eight million”.

About two years ago, China was having the highest number of new subscribers on a monthly basis.

“Although emerging markets with relatively low penetration continue to have above-average rates of increase in new subscribers, those numbers tend to be slowing, except in India...,” Moody's said in a statement.

The agency said that Indian telecom players were using “innovative means such as outsourcing network management and sharing mobile infrastructure to keep costs low in extending services to under-served rural areas”.

Moody's said mobile operators in India frequently shared base stations and partner with other firms or independent cell-tower firms in expanding coverage to under-penetrated rural areas from where much of the growth was coming.

The agency said divestment of non-core assets like selling or sharing cell phone towers as a way to control costs and optimise capital expenditure had helped Indian operators in expanding coverage.

For the telecom sector in the Asia-Pacific region, Moody's has assigned a “stable outlook” and noted that this market presents attractive investment opportunities.

The agency said the revenue growth for the region would drop sharply by year-end 2009 from the double-digit growth rates of last five years.

However, the full-year revenue growth for the industry this year will remain marginally positive.

Revenues from voice service and SMS are expected to fall but data revenue should continue to grow, Moody's said.

The outlook is based on expectations from telecom operators in the Asia-Pacific region across Singapore, Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, Pakistan and Indonesia.

It did not include any Indian operator, though NTT Docomo and Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel) which have partnerships in India were included.

Inter-telecom M&As on cards

NEW DELHI: The communications regulator is planning an overhaul of rules governing the telecom sector, considering changes that could facilitate Facts on Indians mobile connections

consolidation in India's crowded and intensely competitive mobile phone market.

Among the issues that the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) is contemplating are changes that will allow mobile phone firms to buy each other out and trade in wireless spectrum, officials aware of the plans said.

Trai wants to make its recommendations — which will address all outstanding issues in the sector and lay out a roadmap for the future — by December 2009 so that the new policy can be put in place before the end of the fiscal year in March 2010, an official with the regulatory agency said. The plan to loosen rules is being conceived in the backdrop of nervousness about the prospects of the telecom sector, whose sheen has been fading amid price wars and concerns about the ability of phone firms to sustain revenue and profit growth.

“The entire process is aimed at calming industry fears that the Department of Telecom and Trai, in addition to looking at consumer related issues such as tariffs, are also concerned about the survival and profitability of the operators,” a Trai official told ET.

Trai is also examining the utility of a rule that prevents promoters of new telecom companies who were given licences last year from selling their stakes and exiting these ventures. Furthermore, the regulator will reconsider its stand favouring a cap on the number of telcos that are allowed to operate in a circle.

A Trai official said that it will also identify all available radio frequencies and the timeframe by which these will be available to operators, including the methodologies for allocation of this scarce resource.

“This information is vital for operators as it will enable them to plan their network rollout on a long-term basis. The methodology for future allocation of airwaves will also remove current uncertainties that are weighing down the sector," the official observed.

In the past week, telecom shares have been beaten down in the stock markets as analysts cut earnings estimates for mobile phone firms and advised clients to sell. The five listed telecom firms -- Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communications, Idea Cellular, Tata Teleservices and MTNL -- have lost over Rs 54,000 crore in market value during this period.

While India boasts of the fastest-growing telecoms market in the world, adding between 12 million and 15 million new customers every month, the average revenue per user, a measure of the profitability of the operators, has been falling constantly. The country's cellular base expanded by 50% to over 450 million users from 2008 to 2009, but operators' revenues went up by a mere 10.7% during this period.

The Trai review has been mainly initiated in the wake recommendations by a panel set up by the government to resolve the controversy over the allocation of spectrum. The committee had asked the government to modify its policies to allow consolidation in the industry, while also opposing a three-year stock sale ban. It wanted all telcos to be allowed to buy and sell spectrum and pay a fee to the government.

Existing regulations make M&As near impossible because a telecom company cannot hold more than a 10% stake in another company that has operations in the same circle. Besides, telcos cannot buy out their rivals that have operations in the same states as current rules do not allow operators to have more than one licence in a circle.

Besides, the telecom department recently introduced a three-year lock in clause aimed at preventing owners of companies which acquired telecom licences in early 2008 from making windfall profits. Last year, M&A rules had been tightened to cap the market share of a merged entity - both in terms of subscribers and revenue -- at 40% from 67% earlier. A series of riders were imposed which made it impossible for operators to retain spectrum in the merged entity and a new clause added requiring telcos to get government permission before they enter into mergers.

US recession over, but employment will lag: Survey

WASHINGTON: The recession gripping the United States for nearly two years is over, but economic growth may be held in check by high unemployment, apoll of business economists showed on Monday.

"The Great Recession is over," according to the consensus macroeconomic outlook of a panel of 44 professional forecasters of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE).

"The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines," NABE president-elect Lynn Reaser said.

More than 80 per cent of economists surveyed believed that an expansion has begun, according to poll conducted during the September 2-24 period.

The study also found that the more-than-three-year downturn in the US housing market, epicenter of financial turmoil that slammed the brakes on growth, was very close to ending, with an upturn expected next year, said Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.

According to the survey, the key areas of concern were the increasing federal debt and unemployment rates, "expected to remain very high through next year."

The unemployment rate was forecast to rise to 10 per cent in the first quarter of next year and edge down to 9.5 per cent by the end of 2010 while inflation is expected to remain contained throughout next year.

"The good news is that this deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the US economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation," the NABE said.

The stock market rebound was a point of "strong agreement" among panelists, with all the forecasters predicting a gain in 2010 on the back of an increase of 11 per cent in corporate profits next year.

They saw the broad S&P 500 stock index climbing 7.5 per cent next year.

The US dollar however will soften further this year and remain weak into 2010, the survey showed.

The economists felt that the weak dollar will not reduce the trade deficit further as the relatively stronger US economic rebound elevated import demand. In fact, the NABE panel expected a modest deterioration in the trade balance next year.

The panel upgraded the economic outlook for the next several quarters, compared with the previous survey, Reaser said.

Following a sharp 6.4 per cent contraction in the first quarter of this year and another 0.7 per cent drop in the second quarter, NABE forecasters expect real gross domestic product (GDP) to rise at an above trend 2.9 per cent rate in the second half of 2009.

The NABE also said that lackluster household sector spending was expected to be a drag on the economy, restraining growth of consumer spending, a key driver of growth.

However, in contrast to views of some that the US saving rate was set to rise dramatically over the next few years, slightly more than half of the NABE panel believed that the rate will average between three and 5 per cent through 2012.

The poll also found corporate profits to show "strong improvement," increasing 11 per cent in 2010, characteristic of the early stages of an economic recovery.

IIP growth raises hopes of recovery; mining and manufacturing grow in double digits

BS Reporter / New Delhi, October 13, 2009

Industrial output grew the most in 22 months to 10.4 per cent in August, indicating a steady turnaround in the economy but also raising worries that the government and the central bank would roll back fiscal and monetary stimulus measures.

Output at factories, utilities and mines, which account for about 17 per cent of GDP, exceeded economists’ expectations of a 9.7 per cent increase and was significantly higher than 1.7 per cent in the same month last year, causing some analysts to attribute this year’s performance to the low base effect.

Most, however, also supported the official claim that the impressive IIP figures were due to the trickle-down effect of the government stimulus packages, though the strength of the private sector demand remained uncertain.

The central bank cut interest rates six times between October and April and the government reduced taxes on consumer products and imports, together providing a stimulus worth more than 12 per cent of India’s GDP. %)

“The good IIP numbers are a result of stimulus packages. These numbers were anticipated,” said Ajay Shankar, secretary, department of industry policy and promotion.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee termed it as a good sign of recovery. “We are hoping that when the final figure of second quarter will be available, there will be some higher growth so that we can make up even higher growth in the third and fourth quarters.” The economy grew 6.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year, exceeding most analysts’ expectation.

Expressing the possibility of sustained growth in industrial production from now on, Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla said, “We expect the trend to continue and expect better numbers in September.”

Reacting to the news, the Bombay Stock Exchange’s 30-share index rose 384 points or 2.31 per cent to close above the 17,000 mark.

Other signs:

The August IIP numbers appear to confirm signals of an upturn emerging from other indices, such as the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives. An index above 50 implies expansion and the index has indicated this for the last few months, though the rate of improvement in August and September has slowed over that of July.

“The purchasing manager’s index indicates new orders and rise in production. An inventory adjustment effect will also boost production, with many firms having run down stocks earlier this year in anticipation of a prolonged downturn that looks increasingly unlikely for many sectors,” said Nikhilesh Bhattacharyya, associate economist with Moody’s Economy.com.

The steady upturn in IIP was also preceded by rising business confidence According to the CII M-Ascon survey of the manufacturing industry for the April-June period — the latest data available — 10.4 per cent of the 77 sectors reporting production were in the excellent growth category (more than 20 per cent), compared to 7 per cent in the same period last year.

Mining leads the charge:

Leading the August numbers was mining, which rose 12.9 per cent compared to just 2.8 per cent in August 2008. Manufacturing, which accounts for about 80 per cent of industrial output, continued the strong growth trend of July, growing 10.2 per cent in August against 1.7 per cent in the same month last year. Electricity output also grew by 10.6 per cent against 0.8 per cent in the corresponding month in 2008.

In aggregate terms, industrial growth stood at 5.8 per cent against 4.3 per cent in April-August year ago, though this is still behind the 2007 figure (see table).

According to Bhattacharyya, “The strength of private sector demand remains somewhat uncertain, with weak expansion in production of consumer non-durables, which is the area likely to have received the least assistance from government spending and price control measures.”

DK Joshi, principal economist with Crisil India, attributed doubt over sustaining growth to the lack of strong credit offtake. “However, I expect private consumption to bounce back by 2010-11 fuelled by rising incomes and an improved global situation. Interest rates are unlikely to shoot up and will continue to support growth for the coming months,” he added.

Industry optimistic:

Industry is also optimistic about the coming months and expects the central bank to continue to keep interest rates low. At its last meeting on July 28, the Reserve Bank held its reverse repurchase rate at 3.25 per cent and maintained the repurchase rate at 4.75 per cent. The cash reserve ratio, was kept unchanged at 5.0 per cent.

“It is important to nurture this economic recovery by continuing with the current fiscal and monetary space which has been given to industry to recover, especially during a year of poor monsoons that could impact agricultural growth. CII hopes that the RBI would give the welcome signal of an accommodative monetary policy when the half yearly review is done,” said Chandrajit Banerjee, director general,CII.

Ficci president Harsh Pati Sighania also maintained that it was critical that the overall policy parameters and stimulus measures were not reversed at this point of time.

Of 17 industry groups in the index, 14 showed positive growth. Use-based categories like basic goods grew by 10 per cent against 3.9 per cent in the same period last year. Capital and consumer goods also grew an impressive 8.3 and 8.5 per cent respectively against 0.9 and 6.4 per cent in August 2008. Intermediate goods which had registered a decline of 5.5 per cent in August last year grew by 14.3 per cent this year.

Consumer durables also posted a 22.3 per cent growth rate against 3.9 per cent on a year on year basis. Only consumer non-durables registered a marginal decline in growth rate to 3.7 per cent during the month against 7.3 per cent last year. The growth in consumer non-durables is also lower than the 5.7 per cent growth in July.

The Dow Jones industrials reached a new 2009 trading high, edging closer to 10,000. A weaker dollar and a spike in oil prices above $73 drove energy and materials prices higher:

My this week's Quickie Call Southern Online Bio Technologies Ltd (SBTL) hit the buyer freeze. SBTL earlier informed that it has successfully completed the financial closure of its 2nd Bio Diesel unit of 250 TPD, which is coming up in VIZAG, in APIIC, Multi-product SEZ. The project is estimated to be Rs.90 Cr. The company had earlier raised the required equity of Rs.36 Cr, through preferential allotment of shares and warrants to promoters/high net worth individuals. The company has also got a term loan and working capital from Bank of India, UCO Bank and State Bank of Hyderabad, under consortium, with BOI acting as the lead banker. The proposed unit is expected to start production from this quarter Q3FY10, as it hopes to start trial production from the plant by January, 2010. The company is hopeful that once the 2nd plant starts operating then the turnover of the company would jump to over Rs.250 Cr/annum. The company's present Bio Diesel plant is running 85% of the capacity and is expected to go up to 100% within a very short time as the government came out with a very good proposal, recently. It has clients in the form of APSRTC, Indian Railways, Hotels and direct customers like KSRTC, Navi Mumbai, etc. The company recently received a LOI from Indian Railways, for the supply of bio-diesel. It seems the stock is all set to cross Rs.50 mark in the next few months time frame.

MOREOVER, THE RISE IN CRUDE OIL PRICES IS ALSO POSITIVE FOR THE RENEWABLE ENERGY COMPANIES like XL Telecom and Energy Ltd, Suzlon Ltd, Indowind Energy Ltd, Southern Online Bio Technologies Ltd, Veer Energy Ltd, etc. XL Telecom and Energy Ltd's September, 2009, quarter (Q2FY10) results will be a little better than the last quarter (sequentially speaking), because of improved conditions in Europe and in the domestic market. The good point is that market cap of the company around the current price is only Rs.93.07 Cr , againt a turnover of Rs.586.8 Cr in FY09. Or in other words, its turnover in FY09, was more than 5 times its market cap, hence one can undertand the price at which its shares price can reach in the days to come. However, the company's business is dependent on the conditions of Europe and in the domestic market, which might take sometime to pick up, full steam.

My earlier recommended Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd hit the buyer freeze on opening trade, yesterday due to some positive developments in the counter. Also keep an eye on Refex Refrigerants Ltd's Q2FY10, results; if they are good then the stock would shoot past Rs.50 mark in no time, hitting continuous upper freezes......

Accential Technologies Ltd (BSE Code: 531897), whose FY09, EPS (consolidated basis) was a whooping, Rs.55.24, could hit some more buyer freezes in the days to come.

The name of this week's Sunday Report scrip was mentioned to the Yahoo Group, SumanSpeaks (Free Group) also....Some inputs were also sent there on Sanguine Media Services Ltd, as a good news is expected to hit the stands within a short time.

Investors waiting for earnings reports to flow in traded cautiously Monday, giving up early gains and leaving the market narrowly mixed. The Dow Jones industrials reached a new 2009 trading high, edging closer to 10,000.

Volume was light because of the Columbus Day holiday. Bond markets were closed and there were no economic reports.

A weaker dollar and a spike in oil prices above $73 drove energy and materials prices higher, but weakness in technology and industrial shares held the market back. Stocks got an early boost from a better-than-expected profit report from Dutch company Royal Philips Electronics. That sent Britain's leading stock indicator to its highest level in a year.

Investors looked ahead to the flurry of earnings due this week from key companies including Intel Corp., Johnson & Johnson, IBM Corp. and General Electric Co. Top U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. will issue reports as well. The Dow traded as high as 9,931, just 69 points away from 10,000, a level not seen in a year. The index rose for the third day in a row and has gained in five out of the last six sessions.

The Dow closed up 20.86, or 0.2 percent, at 9,885.80. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 4.70, or 0.4 percent, to 1,076.19. Both indexes had their highest close in a year.

The Nasdaq composite index fell 0.14, or 0.01 percent, to 2,139.14.

Advancing stocks narrowly outpaced declining ones on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume was very low at 3.76 billion shares versus 3.85 billion on Friday.

Analysts said traders are generally optimistic about the upcoming third-quarter earnings reports, especially after aluminum maker Alcoa Inc. -- the first of the 30 companies that make up the Dow to report earnings -- said last week that it turned a profit for the first time in nine months.

"There is some key stuff coming and the market has anticipated that it's going to be good," said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan.

The dollar mostly fell against other major currencies, helping to drive commodity prices higher. A weak dollar makes commodities more attractive to foreign investors. Gold rose $8.90 to $1,057.50 an ounce, while oil prices rose $1.50 to settle at $73.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The dollar has fallen steadily over the past few months as investors, more upbeat on the economy take money out of traditional safe-haven assets and put it to work in stocks. The ICE Futures U.S. dollar index, which tracks the dollar against other major currencies, is down about 14 percent since early March. The S&P 500 index is up 59 percent since then.

Better-than-expected first-quarter results from banks set off the stock market's rally seven months ago, and even stronger second-quarter results helped fortify the rally in July.

Analysts say companies' earnings reports will determine where the market heads next. If results exceed expectations and show companies are making money through sales and not just cost cutting, stocks could continue their push higher.

"There's still room here for equities to move up on the back of better-than-expected results," said Craig Peckham, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. "I don't think that positive surprises are fully priced in."

Banks were among the big gainers Monday as investors awaited their earnings. Wells Fargo & Co. rose $1.07, or 3.7 percent, to $30.28, while Citigroup Inc. was up 14 cents, or 3 percent, at $4.77.

In other trading, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 1.11 to 613.81.

Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.9 percent, Germany's DAX index jumped 1.3 percent, and France's CAC-40 gained 1.2 percent. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index finished down 0.9 percent. Japan's market was closed for a holiday.

Winning Strokes Ltd: Think different:

Accentia Technologies Ltd, the last weeks's Sunday Report recommended scrip hit the 2nd consecutive buyer freeze.

The Quickie call for this week Southern Online Bio Technology Ltd hit the buyer freeze in the opening trade. Recently there are very good developments in the Bio Diesel sector with the government fixing a price for the bio-diesel. Moreover, Crude Oil prices rose above $72 a barrel today in Asia as investors looked to a slew of US corporate earnings reports this week for signs of economic recovery.

A more optimistic crude demand forecast by the International Energy Agency on Friday helped boost trader confidence. The Paris-based IEA, which advises oil-consuming countries, said demand will likely reach 86.1 million barrels a day in 2010, up 1.7 per cent from this year. Kuwaiti oil minister Sheik Ahmed Al Abdullah Al Sabah told the state news agency yesterday that an oil price range between $60 to $80 a barrel is acceptable -- echoing earlier remarks by Saudi Arabia.

This will further strengthen the prices of renewable energy companies like Praj Industries Ltd, XL Telecom and Energy Ltd, Southern Online Bio Technologies Ltd, etc.

Also, The European Union (EU) Parliament has adopted a Renewable Energy Directive. This directive mandates 10 per cent biofuel content in transport fuel by the year 2020. This entails an additional 12 to 14 billion litres capacity of bio-ethanol generation per year, globally. This means the consumption will grow by almost five times over the next 10 years and this will create excellent growth opportunities.

SMS was sent to the Paid Members regarding Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd, the stock hit the buyer freeze.

XL Telecom and Energy Ltd is exploring various European markets for big orders, apart from its business in Spain. The company's mega project is expected to be completed with the next December, 2009.

Refex Refrigerants Ltd is updating its web-site and hence some positive surprise should come from it. The company has diversified into renewable energy sector.

Please start accumulating Sanguine Media Services Ltd (BSE Code: 531898, CMP: Rs.3.30) as some good news is expected from the company within a very short time. The stock is expected to cross Rs.7-8, after the Q2 results which in all probability are expected to be good, at least speaking sequentially. I think I have already mentioned that apart from its media business it is also into event management business, from which it has started to get substantial revenues. The company at present is doing a couple of Television Serials and.......(Will tell you later).

What was the scrip recommended in this week's Sunday Report?? Any guesses?? One hint, the CMP of the scrip is less than Rs.10 and it is from the textile sector (a reputed company).

EXCERPTS OF MY MORNIGN MAIL TO THE PREMIUM MEMBERS:

India’s benchmark stock index fell to its lowest level in two weeks yesterday. TCS led software exporters lower as the dollar weakened.

However, Rolta Ltd fell marginally as it gets most of its revenues from the domestic market. Currently Rolta Ltd is trading at around Rs.190 and should improve from this price.

The Sensex lost 151.88 points, or 0.9 percent, to close at 16,806.66, its lowest since Sept. 25, 2009; while Nifty declined 0.8 percent to 4,985.75.

Yesterday the U.S. stocks rose for a third day as bank shares rose on an analysts upgrade of Bank of America and Wells Fargo’s plan to boost credit-card rates, while Alcoa jumped before beginning the third-quarter earnings.

Asian stocks are trading in the positive sone for a third day today morning, driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to a two-week high, after Australian employers unexpectedly added workers last month and Alcoa reported earnings that beat analyst estimates.

The markets are cautious ahead of announce inflation data today for the week ended Sept. 26 which is expected to come higher than last week’s 0.83% for week ended Sept.19.

Chart--Check:

Yesterday the Indian markets started on positive note on the back of buying momentum. However, the day ended deep red after several failed attempts at recovery. In case of Nifty 4900-4920 looks like a strong immediate support.

The bears are likely to take control if this level is broken on the downside. Until that happens the idea is to keep buying for a target in excess of 5100--5200, in case of Nifty.

Once the level of 4900 is breached, the next logical levels could be XXXXX (for the Paid Groups) in the offering.

One should note that the trend of the market is distinctly positive even in the short term. Hence, one should look for pockets of strength for initiating longs rather than contemplating pre-emptive shorts and this looks to be a more opportune trading idea, considering the present conditions.

THE INVESTORS SHOULD START ACCUMULATING FOR THE PRE-DEEWALI RALLY....

XL Telecom and Energy Ltd has corrected along with the other telecom counters, but strictly speaking it is now more of a renewable energy company than a Telecom Company. Hence this selling is just a misnomer, especially when the worst for the company is already over.

The company is expected to complete the mega solar project by December, 2010. Moreover, Q2FY10, quarter results will be a little better at least sequentially due to the improvement in the world economy and especially European Union, where the company is running some major projects.

XL Telecom & Energy Ltd earlier informed BSE that a Committee of the Board of Directors at its meeting held on September 15, 2009, inter alia, have allotted 11,19,093 (Eleven lacs Nineteen Thousand Ninety Three only) Equity Shares of Rs 10/- each of the Company at a premium of Rs 150/- per share to "Morgan Stanley Mauritius Company Ltd" upon conversion of Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds to the extent of US$ 4.50 million. Does it give some datum for the shares of the company. Hence accumulate in bulk and wait for just few months to get mega returns..... Glory Polyfilms Ltd is doing well even today as it is up more than 6%, when this report is being prepared.The company would complete the 2nd Phase of expansion within a couple of months. Off late some new developments have taken place. It is a fundamentally sound company.

Meanwhile, Mr.Amitabh Bachchan has sold his holding in Energy Development Company Ltd (BSE Code: 532219).

TEXTILES: Government plans to cut duty on man-made fibres to make Indian exports competitive and give exporters a level playing field. This is a positive news for the textile companies.

Accentia Technologies Ltd could also be accumulated at the price band of Rs.104--Rs.110, for some superb targets.

Adlabs Films changes name to Reliance Mediaworks Limited:

Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd, recommended some weeks back to the Paid Groups and also in this blog, at around Rs.5, today touched Rs.7.44. Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd, recently got approval for an entertainment channel. The company is planning to lauch some more channels in the days to come.....I had earlier placed some news on the company.....

Mumbai: Leading film and media services company Adlabs Films (Adlabs) today said that it has changed its name to Reliance Mediaworks Limited effective from October 5.

Adlabs Films is a member of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group. It has received the certificate from the Registrar of Companies, Maharashtra, registering the aforesaid change in name, a press release issued here said.

The company's Board of Directors has decided to change the name as the original name Adlabs Films, was reflective of the company's initial business as a film processing laboratory, the release said.

"The name Reliance Mediaworks Limited more accurately reflects our identity as a diversified film and media services company with a global presence and enables us to draw upon the international recognition of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group brand," Company's Chief Executive Officer, Anil Arjun, said.

IT cos expected to post sequential growth in Q2

I recommended Accentia Technologies Ltd (BSE Code: 531897) to the Paid Groups, the stock hit the buyer freeze. A research report on the company would soon be placed at www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com

Bangalore: The worst seems to be over for the Indian IT industry as analysts predict a return of sequential growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2010 helped by improvement in business sentiments and favourable cross currency movements.

Also, the faster-than-expected turnaround could prompt Infosys Technologies to upgrade its fiscal 2010 revenue forecast to a flattish year-on-year growth, compared with the company’s earlier negative projections, analysts said. Infosys, which will announce its numbers on Friday, would beat its own projections for the September quarter, they said.

Positive commentary:

The recent positive commentary from the managements of top tier vendors coupled with a robust deal flows throughout the September quarter has lifted sentiments in the sector. In the previous two quarters, the industry had for the first time since 2001 witnessed a sequential negative growth, reeling under the impact of the global economic crisis that caused volumes to drop and induced pricing pressures.

Analysts said client decision making was turning orderly with improvement across verticals (especially BFSI and Telecom). Signs of recovery, including volume based utilisation improvement, stable pricing and abatement of leakages at key clients, are also visible.

“We believe pick-up in discretionary demand, faster rebound in BFSI and telecom and contribution from new business channels could lead to upgrades,” brokerage firm Motilal Oswal said in a note to clients.

The rupee has remained largely flat against the US dollar during the September quarter, as a result of which the rupee-term growth would be largely in line with the dollar-term revenue growth during the quarter.

A BL poll of five brokerages reveal that Infosys would post an average revenue Rs 5,576 crore for the quarter ahead of its guidance of Rs 5,318 crore to Rs 5,413 crore. Net profits were expected to be marginally lower at Rs 1,523 crore from Rs 1,527 crore in the June quarter.

TCS is expected to post a revenue of Rs 7,312 crore ahead of its June quarter’s Rs 7,207 crore. Profits could increase marginally to Rs 1,523 crore due to higher tax rate as against Rs 1,520 crore in the previous quarter.

Wipro’s consolidated revenues were expected to grow to Rs 6,621 crore as against Rs 6,318 crore in the previous quarter, while net profits were likely to decline marginally to Rs 1,065 crore.

Analysts also expect an improvement in utilisation for the September quarter. “This coupled with favourable cross currency movement (a positive impact of 1.5-2 per cent on dollar-term revenues), we expect front-line IT companies to easily exceed their Q2 dollar-term revenue guidance,” an analyst at Sharekhan said.

Operating margins:

Operating margins of the top tier companies will remain resilient with a year-on-year improvements of 50-120 basis points. Headcount cuts and hiring postponement could provide further upsides to margins, analysts added.

Companies such as Infosys and Wipro are giving out pay hikes and promotions to their employees, which is a sign of improved business prospects. Infosys, which had not raised salaries in April, is considering a hike in October, while Wipro has also given out hikes, albeit more selectively, to top performers, said an analyst at Angel Broking.

The ongoing vendor consolidation exercises have also benefited companies like TCS, Infosys and Wipro, helping them not only retain the customer, but also giving them the scope to increase their engagement with the clients.

During the quarter, TCS, Infosys and Wipro were retained by energy giant BP, which in a major exercise cut its vendors from as many as 40 to just five.

Special Scoop:

There are already lot of speculations that Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has an over inflated balance sheet which the company denied upteem number of times. Morever, speculation is also ripe about the type of business Anil Ambani's, RNRL is doing at present after it got listed some years back, amidst lot of controversies.

Also, many experts feel that most of the Reliance Group companies (including the ADAG Pack) are overvalued at the current price, as compared to their peers.

Now a fresh controvery has emerged which appeared in a reputed pink daily: The Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) has asked Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to 'check' allegations of favours received by oil regulator V K Sibal from Reliance Industries (RIL) for approving near four-fold hike (to $8.8 billion) in expenditure for gas field, a charge he denies.

CVC Secretary K S Ramasubban on October 1 wrote to the CBI director Ashwani Kumar seeking "a discreet field verification" on the allegations of RIL purchasing flats in Mumbai for Sibal's daughter and incurring expenses over purchase of white goods for her.

Sibal, who has been favoured by oil ministry for a two-year extension beyond October, questioned the move saying as per CVC guidelines no new charges can be entertained against an official six months prior to his or her extension. The allegations, he said, were to "blackmail" CVC into denying him an extension.

No comments could be obtained from either CVC or CBI.

"I am upset not because I may be denied an extension but because the 2005 allegations are being raised by just one corporate house which has a conflicting interest (with RIL), to tarnish my image at a time when my case for extension is under consideration," he said.

It was also alleged that his daughters used RIL guest houses in Mumbai during 2005 and 2006, when Sibal approved increase in capital expenditure of RIL's KG-D6 field from $2.4 billion to $8.8 billion.

"The allegations are serious and, if substantiated, they would raise doubts about the integrity and objectivity of Sibal," said the CVC letter, copies of which were also marked to Cabinet Secretary K M Chandrasekhar.

Rubbishing the allegations, Sibal said neither he nor his daughter own any property in Mumbai.

"I have not done any favours to RIL. People don't understand that DGH does not approve any expenditure. We only approve development plan for a field with a view to look at its economic viability," he said. "I have not taken any favours from RIL or anyone else."

He said the $8.8 billion field development plan for RIL's eastern offshore KG-D6 field has been validated by two independent experts and has been ranked the "most cost effective" by Goldman Sachs.

Sibal added one of his daughters did use RIL's guest house in Mumbai for a couple of weeks in July 2005 when her home in Kalina was flooded, as were most parts of the city.

The DGH has been under attack from Anil Ambani group firm RNRL — which is fighting a bitter battle over gas with RIL — for alleged haste shown in approval of RIL's KG-D6 capex increase.

"Why is that only one corporate group is raising these allegations (of approving gold-plated capex). There isn't anyone else in the industry who says that KG-D6 capex is gold plated. It is one of the lowest among 32 similar development projects world over," Sibal added..

Ludhiana textile park gets central funds

The Ludhiana Integrated Textile Park project has got the first installment of Rs 4 crore from the textile ministry.

Talking to Business Standard, Ludhiana Integrated Textile Park Managing Director Vinod K Thapar said it was a matter of pride that the park now stands approved and that a grant of Rs 40 crore had been sanctioned. Out of this, Rs 4 crore had been received, he said.

Thapar said 86 knitwear and textile units had agreed to set up base in the park, which was coming up around 15 kilometres from the city on the Ludhiana-New Delhi road.

The project envisages streamlining the functioning of knitwear and textile industry in Ludhiana and help it compete in the global market by providing top-class facilities.

“To start with, the park is being developed on 60 acres with a provision for further extension. It will be a cluster of about 90 knitwear/textile units. While the park envisages a total investment to the tune of Rs 1,500 crore, it will provide direct and indirect employment to about 1,25,000 persons,” he said.

Thapar said the complex would have an effluent treatment plant, a captive power plant, a trade centre and a sophisticated research and development centre. The boundary wall was complete and earth-filling was nearing completion, he said.

Throwing light on the background of the park, Thapar said the idea to set up a special textile park in Ludhiana was mooted by Ludhiana Knitwear Club. Encouraged by co-operation from the members, a special purpose vehicle (SPV), called Ludhiana Integrated Textile Park Ltd, was formed.

“The necessity of forming this SPV arose as it was a pre-requisite for developing a textile park under the Ministry of Textile’s Scheme for Integrated Textile Parks”, Thapar said.

Experts' take: Time to exit fundamentally weak stocks

MUMBAI: It may well be tempting to be carried away by the upswing in stock prices over the past few months but increasingly, investment advisors and Why realty is good investmentKey to maximising returns.

Says financial planner Gaurav Mashruwala: “In fact, you can use this opportunity to rid your portfolio of stocks that do not add value. If you are stuck in stocks and mutual funds that are not fundamentally strong and have been looking for the right time to exit, this is the time.”

His views are echoed by Alok Ranjan, head — PMS, Way2Wealth who says investors could consider booking profits in mid-cap and small-cap stocks that have run up without fundamentals while holding on to large-cap stocks and mutual funds. “One could be in cash of 15%, and any sharp correction could be used to buy into fundamentally strong companies. With results season around the corner, investors should exit fundamentally weak companies,” is what he is advising investors.

Ideally, for retail investors with a long-term view, sticking to a fixed asset allocation — devised after taking into account their goals and risk profile — could be the best approach to adopt. “If our clients are overweight in equities due to the market rally at this point of time, they may reduce the exposure in equities in accordance with their asset allocation,” according to Pankaj Narain, head — private clients, banking and investments at Deutsche Bank India.

Mr Mashruwalla says, if an investor has decided on an asset allocation ratio of 60:40 (equity: debt), and the equity component has swelled to 75% due to the market surge, they could look at liquidating part of their equity portfolio. However, if the deviation is merely 5-10%, there may not be any need to rebalance the portfolio.

On the other hand, if investors are underweight on equities, financial planners say they could invest in the market in a phased manner. And for those investing in mutual funds, opting for the SIP route is the ideal method to adopt, they opine. “The current rally in market is due to excess liquidity, though it is supplemented by the strong economic fundamentals. Investors should be cautious hereafter, and with every 100 point rise in Nifty, there should be gradual profit booking,” suggests RL Narayanan, vice-president, equity institutional sales, Bonanza Portfolio.

Also, keeping an eye on the evolving scenario and taking decisions accordingly could be the key to building a healthy portfolio. “At current levels, valuations definitely are looking stretched, though liquidity can drive it further up. Investors clearly need to take 15-20% off the table. The biggest risk is rising inflation, due to which at some point in time, RBI will be forced to raise interest rates. If that happens, markets will take a closer look at valuations and correct,” cautions AV Srikanth, executive director of Anand Rathi Private Wealth Management. [From Economic Times]

I.M.F. Calls for Overhaul of Financial System

FRANKFURT—The International Monetary Fund said Wednesday that “the global economy has turned a corner” after the harrowing start to 2009, but that only a thorough restructuring of the financial system could prevent a return to crisis and pave the way for solid growth within the next 18 months.

However, the I.M.F. did say that its estimate of total write downs at banks and other financial institutions had declined by $600 billion, from $4 trillion six months ago to $3.4 trillion today, in part because the value of complex securities at the heart of the crisis has stabilized.

In its Global Financial Stability Report, an assessment that has brought widespread praise from economists as a thorough analysis of the system’s health, the I.M.F. praised the mixture of bank rescue and stimulus packages. But it said the policies had not changed the fundamental dynamic by which debt-burdened banks and consumers present a drag on economic growth.

“The risk of a reintensification of the adverse feedback loop between the real and financial sectors remains significant as long as banks remain under strain and households and financial institutions need to reduce leverage,” the I.M.F. wrote in the report.

To head off a new chapter in the crisis, the I.M.F. called on governments to adopt regulations to strengthen bank capital and establish effective policies to clear bad loans off bank balance sheets. It also called for “great care” in winding down crisis-driven rescue policies to avoid bringing on a new crisis.

Broadly speaking, the I.M.F. said, the global economy still suffered from a shortage of credit, thanks to the crisis at the heart of the Western financial system, which stemmed initially from huge losses linked to the U.S. mortgage market. Now, loan write-offs linked to a grinding recession are amplifying the problem.

“When set against projected demand for credit by the public and private sectors,” the I.M.F. wrote, it appears that forecast supply could “fall short of even anemic private sector demand.” Having shouldered losses of $1.3 trillion to date, the I.M.F. estimated, banks will still have to write off $1.5 trillion in bad loans or worthless securities by the end of 2010. It added that U.S. banks were about 60 percent through the process of writing off bad investments. European banks, because the economic cycle in Europe lags behind that of the United States, are about 40 percent finished, it said.

Even though banks are returning to profitability, the I.M.F. said, incoming cash will not be enough to compensate for the losses. So, it said, banks will still need new capital infusions, obtained either by raising it in private markets or by tapping government bailout plans.

The I.M.F. painted a marginally flattering picture of U.S. policies toward the banking system, saying that “stress tests” and subsequent capital-raising by big banks had helped stabilize the system.

It estimated that banks in the 16-nation euro zone still needed to raise $380 billion to put their Tier 1 capital ratio, a measure of bank reserves, at 10 percent. U.S. banks, by contrast, would need about $80 billion.

In Europe, “banks exceed minimum capital levels, but would benefit from additional tangible capital to better absorb impending losses and revive lending,” the I.M.F. wrote.

The report cited rapid deterioration of the commercial real estate market as one reason why American banks were not out of the woods yet.

It said that about 12 percent of U.S. banks had exposures to commercial real estate loans amounting to five times their capital on hand, “posing a significant threat to their solvency.”

“The commercial real estate sector turned later than other sectors, but its deterioration is now in full swing,” the fund wrote.

The I.M.F. criticized the pace of efforts on both sides of the Atlantic to clear bank balance sheets of bad assets. In the United States, a system by which private investors buy bad assets at a discount with government-backed loans has yet to attract any takers, while European programs are either incomplete or inadequate, the fund said.

Will the October, 2008 carnage in the markets be repeated??!!

1. A sharp correction in the markets is imminent and hence book your profits and exit the market for the time being. The levels of entry will be mentioned to the Paid Groups. The Premium Members were asked to book profits in most of the counters in the Sunday Report. I think most of them have booked out profits and stitting with hard cash. Last year October was very bad and it spoiled DIWALI celebration of many investors as the Sensex crashed from 13203 to 7647. International markets also had same impact. Could the same thing be repeated this year also??

2. Those who are holding Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd might witness, it make new 52-week highs in the days to come. One of the noted web-sites on media has reportedly asked his chief correspondent to make a story on the company, after finding the latest on the Channel Story. The company earlier got approval for an entertainment channel. However, news channel will be launched first followed by other channels.[This news was sent in the Sunday Report to the Paid Groups].

3. Micro Technologies has announced a multi-million dollar order from a Fortune 500 company. But the market did not respond this time also, as the share price fell. The stock was recommended around Rs.110-120, levels a couple of months back to the Paid Groups. I think the investors should exit this counter as it seems that the market have little faith on the management. I remember, similar cases in Albert David, Sujana Universal, etc, in 2005. [This news was sent in the Sunday Report to the Paid Groups].

4. Orbit Corporation Ltd (532837) and Igarashi Motors are continuously moving up in the last few days and both are dangerously placed. Leave both these scrips for the time being and enter at least 20% correction from the last close. [Excerpts from the latest Sunday Report].

5. The next domestic trigger for markets would be the Q2 results, which would start pouring in from the second week of October, 2009. The investors are pinning their high hopes on the results as advance tax numbers of the corporates were encouraging. But the overall market sentiment remains cautious with a negative bias. However, the long term bullish outlook of the market is still intact, and the investors/traders should look-out for opportunities to accumulate good stocks, when the correction is complete and the market stabilizes. The Sensex is expected to touch 21, 000 by March, 2010, ushering in, the next phase of bull run which will take the Sensex to 30, 000 odd levels by 2012. I have already placed my target of 72, 000 for the Sensex by 2015. However, the rise would not be vertical but through convoluted route of correction in between rises. Therefore, investors are suggested to book profit at regular intervals and ........[Excerpts from the latest Sunday Report].

7. W S Industries Ltd reached my short term target and I hope most of you booked profit in the counters. Similar is the case with Country Club India Ltd, where profit booking was advised following a strong resistance on the way.

8. Profit booking is also advised on Atlanta Ltd, Visa Steels Ltd and Vikash Metal and Power Ltd.

6. I have recommended a cable making company to the Paid Group whose Research Report would be uploaded on SumanSpeaksPlus very soon and hence keep watch on this space.

Moreover, BSEL Infrastructure Realty Ltd hit the buy 2nd consecutive buyer freeze, after it was strongly recommended in the latest Sunday Report, sent to the Paid Clients. But then at Rs.22.20, what should the investors do..??!!

I AM NOT FEELING TO UPLOAD THIS BLOG TOO OFTEN DUE TO MENTAL TRAUMA AND ALSO DUE TO TOO MUCH WORK AT MY END.

Limited room for more fiscal stimulus: PM

Micro Technologies Ltd recommended around Rs.120, closed at Rs.166.25, a gain of around 30% in just 45 days.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today admitted that his government had limited options on the question of accelerating fiscal stimulus measures.

When asked if the G-20 declaration against any premature withdrawal of stimulus measures gave the Indian government some leeway, Singh said his options were limited. On fiscal policy, he said there was the fear of widening deficit and on the monetary policy front, the fear of a rise in inflation had reduced the central bank’s manoeuvrability on interest rates.

The prime minister addressed the media at the conclusion of the G-20 Summit here that endorsed many of the proposals put forward by the Indian government while keeping climate change negotiations outside its purview.

A cheerful Singh, who turned 77 on September 26, said there was no economic crisis in India. “Our exports and growth suffered, but the economy was now growing at 6.3 per cent.” The stock market, he said, was perhaps reflecting that confidence in the growth potential of the economy.

Apart from being cheerful, he was witty, too, in a few of his responses. On being asked if he was confident that the climate change negotiations would be concluded at Copenhagen in December, Singh said, “I am not an astrologer.” On the long and arduous G-20 consultation process, he said the forum was an essay in persuasion.

He dispelled fears that the growing influence of G-20 was not favourable to India. On the contrary, he said the emergence of G-20 was a clear sign that the world was becoming increasingly inter-dependent. G-8, he said, was ill-equipped to handle the complex global economy where emerging economies had begun playing a bigger role.

The proposed peer review mechanism also would not create any problems because the International Monetary Fund was already reviewing India’s economic policies and programmes under the Fund’s Article IV provisions.

On trade, the prime minister said the US too was interested in early conclusion of the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations. However, he admitted that he was worried about rising protectionism and the US was not excluded when the protectionism issue figured during discussion.

During the G-20 Summit, he did not have an opportunity to have a bilateral meeting with US President Barack Obama, as he was too preoccupied with the Summit as the host and, therefore, he did not have any bilateral meetings with any of the other G-20 leaders. Singh, however, had bilateral meetings with UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.

When he was greeted by a journalist on his completing 77 years, Singh said he was grateful to the people of India for giving him a chance to serve them again. This was bt he could not repay except by trying to serve the Indian people better, he said. [From Internet]

Exide Industries Ltd (CMP: Rs.89.05): Basking on the Auto Sector boom:

Buy only in a correction....Book Profits now...

Exide Industries Ltd is expected to benefit from the better‐than‐expected pick‐up in the car sales (I have earlier mentioned about Refex Refrigerants Ltd on this issue). In the original equipment (OE) sector, demand is weak in the truck‐bus, tractor, and multi‐utility vehicle segments (Not so good news for the shareholders of Sicagen India Ltd).

However, the recent turnaround of the passenger car segment and a robust growth in sales of two‐wheelers will contribute to the sales growth of the company (Good news for the share holders of Refex Refrigerants Ltd). With a likely turnaround in the auto sector, Exide plans to spend around Rs.100 crore to create more capacity given that it is already using about 90 per cent of its facilities. Exide has facilities in Shyamnagar and Haldia in West Bengal, Hosur in Karnataka, Chinchwad and Taloja in Maharashtra and Bawal in Haryana. The company needs additional capacity to meet its demand from an increasing demand of both automotive and industrial batteries.

Exide controls 76 per cent of the automobile OE market. Sales of batteries are expected to grow by about 15 per cent in the current year due to strong demand from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

Strong demand from the UPS & inverters segment from commercial establishments is also estimated to grow by 20 per cent leading to a much strong revenue growth.

Exide has also tied up with Thunder Sky of China for importing Lithium‐ion automotive batteries keeping in tune with the interest shown by domestic car‐makers to participate in the demonstrative electric car project during the Commonwealth Games 2010.

In any good correction buy around the support of Rs.63--Rs.65--Rs.80, for a target of Rs.110, in the next 6 months time frame.

Brokerage Report: With Edition:

Cement price set to decline:

The first sign of oversupply in India's Southern region and its impact on cement prices post incremental capacity addition of 20mn tones during FY09 and Q1FY10 in the region, have been witnessed.

On pan India basis, industry have added around 30mn tones in FY09 and 15mn tones in Q1FY10 and is expected to further add 30mn tones in H2FY10 which will exert downward pressure on cement prices, most likely from Q4FY10.

While we can expect overall capacity utilization for the industry to drop from 95% in FY07 to 75% by FY10 and cement price would correct around 4% in Q4FY10 and 7% in FY11.

We can thus expect the impending oversupply coupled with declining trend in cement price would have a negative effect on the stocks, and hence we maintain our underperformer rating for the sector.

Over-supply in southern region: Cement industry has increased the price by around Rs. 20/bag across regions except for southern region where price has gone down by around Rs 15-20/bag in last six months. This could be the first sign of impact of oversupply (20mn tones of incremental capacity in last fifteen months) in the region which has resulted into cement price decline despite demand growth at moderate rate.

We can also expect the situation of southern India would spread out to across region in next six months and would lead to sharp price correction.

The additional capacity to bring down utilization to 75% in FY10 and 74% in FY11, can be expected an a sharp correction in cement prices is inevitable. Apart from that focus towards retaining market share would also fuel the price war in the industry. It can be safely assumed that cement prices could fall around 11% over the next two years due to a glut of supply and lower capacity utilization.

We have factored a 4% drop in Q4FY10, followed by a 7% decline in FY11 in our earning model.

Input cost has bottomed out: Most of the key raw material for cement production have bottomed out and have started moving upward (~ coal up by around 20%, crude oil price increased by 80%, baltic dry index up by ~50%). Apart from that government has recently increased royalty on limestone by Rs. 18/tone which has increased the cost of cement production by Rs. 22/tones. Coal India has proposed to increase the coal price by 11%, which will increase the cost of production by around Rs. 26/tones.

On one side cost of production is increasing and the other side cement price has started going down which will be a double whammy for the decline in sectors profitability.

This will also going to have some NEGATIVE effect on companies which have some bearing on the cement industry, like Premier Explosives Ltd, AIA Engineering Ltd, etc.

Winning Strokes: Think Different:

Yes, RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD saved a steep fall in the markets as was mentioned in the mid-market mail/report to the Paid Groups. RIL had signed a natural gas sales pact with NTPC Ltd, to supply 0.61 million cubic metres a day (mmscmd) of gas. But what were the Premium Members and Portfolio Management Service (PMS) clients, asked to do in the markets today?? Book profits or buy on dips??!! Remembers the TV commentators who are often very good in giving wrong advice to the investors/traders are advocating a buy on dips strategy....But then what should be the real strategy to be followed at least in the large caps??!!

Another good news which also helped today's markets is the news that BHEL has bagged a Rs.365 crore order from the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited for supply of four steam generators for India's second 700 MW nuclear power station, being set up at Rajasthan Atomic Power Project, Kota.

Among the aberrations in the markets today, Ennore Coke Ltd, and Country Club Ltd hit the buyer freeze. W S Industries Ltd, recommended this week to the Paid Groups, at Rs.44.4, as the PICK of THE WEEK (in the Sunday Report) reached its short term target of Rs.50.

RCOM arm Reliance World close to signing 6-bln-rupee distribution pact with China's dual-mode handset maker Yulong; company files DRHP for Rel Infratel IPO.

Logistics sector is expected to clock Rs.5,96,114 crore in annual revenues by 2014 on the back of strong growth in economy as well as favourable regulatory environment. The introduction of GST from April 1, and the development of logistics parks will be a boost to the sector, which will post 11% CAGR for the next five years..

So how will the markets behave in the next week?? From which sectors should one exit?? Which sectors should be bought into.....??

Indbank Merchant Ltd is near its 52-week high and hence be careful to take fresh positions.

In another development, operator based buying is seen in Shirpur Gold Refinery Ltd which is running and running when in the June, 2009 quarter, its results have been pathetic.

Volatility ruled the roost as the key benchmark indices slipped with investors taking home some cash ahead of a long weekend and with the market open only for three days next week. Mostly lower global stocks also weighed on sentiment. The market remains closed for a public holiday on Monday, 28 September 2009 and again on Friday, 2 October 2009.

The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 88.43 points or 0.53%, up about 80 points from the day's low and off close to 120 points from the day's high. Pharmaceutical stocks surged even as IT, metal and banking stocks fell. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries rose. Quite a few small-cap and mid-cap stocks surged. The market breadth was strong.

Global stocks were mostly lower as weak US housing data and plans by world central banks to scale back infusions of US dollars into their banking system kept investors worried. Major world central banks announced on Thursday, 24 September 2909, that they planned to scale back massive injections of US dollars into their banking systems as financial markets stabilise after a devastating crisis.

Closer home, intraday volatility was immense. The market cut losses soon after an early slide triggered by weak Asian stocks. The Sensex hit positive zone for a short while in morning trade. It slipped into the red again later. The market moved in a narrow range in early afternoon trade. The market once again slipped into the red after hitting a fresh intraday high in early afternoon trade. The market cut losses after hitting a fresh intraday low in mid-afternoon trade. But the market weakened again later.

World leaders at the two-day G20 meeting which began on Thursday have reportedly agreed to keep emergency economic supports in place until a durable recovery is secured. They have also reportedly agreed to work together when time comes to remove the economic stimulus. The G20 nations have also reportedly agreed to take steps to rein in financial industry excesses that led to the financial crisis, and to act together to raise capital standards for banks.

Media reports also suggest that the G20 nations have agreed on a 5 percentage point shift in International Monetary Fund voting power from controlling developed countries to underrepresented countries. The move is part of efforts to give emerging economic powers more say in the IMF to recognize their growing influence in the world economy.

Closer home, the next trigger for the market is Q2 September 2009 results of India Inc next month. There is optimism about Q2 September 2009 results after advance tax collections registered a positive growth in the second quarter after witnessing a negative growth in the first quarter. Corporate advance tax and advance personal income-tax were up by 14.7% and 1.7%, respectively in the September 2009 quarter.

Meanwhile, a news agency quoted an unnamed finance ministry official as saying that the government's excise duty collection have risen 22.7% in August 2009 from the previous month.

India's exports fell an annual 19.7% in August 2009, as the global slump hit demand for Indian goods, Trade Minister Anand Sharma said on Thursday.

Coming back to stocks, a section of the market is concerned that a glut in share sales may suck liquidity from the secondary market. The corporate sector has raised large sums of money through equity and equity related instruments in the past six months or so to either to retire high cost debt or to fund expansion. The supply of paper by Indian firms appear limitless, raising concerns that additional share sales will suck liquidity from the secondary market.

As per one report, companies plan to raise at least Rs 40,000 crore through initial public offers (IPOs)/follow on public offers (FPOs) in the second half of the current financial year. Power companies such as GMR Energy, Indiabulls Power and JSW Energy and state-run Bharat Heavy Electricals and NTPC are likely to tap the primary market. Reliance Infratel also announced on Tuesday, 22 September 2009, its intention to raise Rs 5,000 crore from the primary market. A number of companies are also in the fray to raise funds by way of qualified institutional placement (QIP), reports suggest.

European shares edged higher in volatile trade on Friday, 25 September 2009. Key benchmark indices in France, UK and Germany were up by between 0.06% to 0.67%.

But Asian stocks dropped after Japan's biggest brokerage Nomura Holdings announced a record $5.6 billion share offering and sales of existing US homes unexpectedly declined. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Singapore South Korea, Japan were down by between 0.14% to 2.64%. But Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted rose 0.29%.

Trading in US index futures indicated Dow could rise 26 points at the opening bell today, 25 September 2009.

US markets fell for a second day in a row on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced plans to start unwinding some stimulus measures and a report showed existing-home sales fell last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 41.11 points, or 0.4%, to 9,707.44. The S&P 500 index fell 10.09 points, or 1%, to 1,050.78, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 23.81 points, or 1.1%, to 2,107.61.

In economic data, existing US home sales disappointed after it fell 2.7% in August against economists expectations of a 2.9% increase. Meanwhile, the initial jobless claims fell to its lowest level in two months. The figure came in at 530,000 which was less than estimates. Continuing claims were also below expectations at 6.14 million against the predicted 6.18 million.

The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 88.43 points or 0.53% to 16693. The Sensex rose 30.59 points at the day's high of 16,812.01 in early afternoon trade. The barometer index fell 168.21 points at the day's low of 16,613,22 in afternoon trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty fell 27.60 points or 0.55% to 4,958.95. Nifty October 2009 futures were at 4960.30 at a premium of 1.35 points as compared to the spot closing of 4958.95. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment was Rs 59,792.44 crore, sharply lower than Rs 1,16,850.34 crore on Thursday, 24 September 2009.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 5865 crore, higher than Rs 5420.01 crore on Thursday, 24 September 2009.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was strong. On BSE, 1621 shares rose as compared with 1137 that declined. A total of 90 shares remained unchanged.

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 20 fell and rest rose.

The Sensex is up 7,045.69 points or 73.03% in calendar year 2009 as on 25 September 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex is up 8,532.60 points or 104.56% as on 25 September 2009. FII inflow in the calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 54212.80 crore (till 24 September 2009). Coming back to today's trade, the BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.65% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.91%. Both the indices outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Healthcare index (up 5.33%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (up 0.97%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (up 0.82%), the BSE Realty index (up 0.69%), the BSE FMCG index (up 0.68%), the BSE PSU index (down 0.21%), the BSE Auto index (down 0.23%), the BSE Power index (down 0.47%), outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Metal index (down 2.23%), the BSE IT index (down 1.72%), the BSE Teck index (down 1.3%), the BSE Bankex (down 1.14%), the BSE Capital Goods index (down 0.56%), underperformed the Sensex.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) reversed early losses, gaining 1.21% to Rs 2129.80. As per reports, RIL has issued a notice to Reliance Infrastructure, an Anil Ambani group company, threatening to stop gas supplies to the latter's 220-MW power plant at Samalkot in Andhra Pradesh, claiming that it has defaulted on payment. In its reply, Reliance Infrastructure has said it had stopped payment as the marketing margin imposed by RIL in the nature of sales price/price of sale of gas is illegal, unauthorised and unwarranted.

RIL said on Thursday it has signed gas supply agreement with state-run utility NTPC to supply gas for some of its power plants for five years. Reliance will supply 0.61 million standard cubic metres a day (mscmd) to NTPC, and expects to start supplies within a week.

Meanwhile, recent report suggest the outlook for Asian oil refiners, previously hit by a sharp fall in margins, is now improving on a likely ramp-up in demand and slowing capacity expansion.

The RIL counter was under pressure late last week following a large treasury share sale by the company in the secondary market. Petroleum Trust on Thursday sold 1.5 crore equity shares of RIL through block deals on the bourses at Rs 2125 per share. The financial impact of the transaction will be reflected in the consolidated statements, RIL said.

Oil exploration stocks rose even as US crude oil futures settled at the lowest level in eight weeks on Thursday as weak US home sales suggested a slow economic recovery in the world's biggest economy and added to demand worries following a US government report on Wednesday of a surprise large increase in fuel stockpiles. Fall in crude oil prices would result in lower realizations from crude sales for oil exploration firms. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, front-month November crude settled down $3.08, or 4.47% at $65.89 a barrel.

India's biggest state-run oil exploration firm by revenue Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) rose 0.75%. ONGC on Wednesday said it will invest over Rs 5000 crore in the next two years in bringing new oil and gas finds into production. Cairn India rose 1.1%.

PSU OMCs rose as fall in crude oil prices will reduce underrecoveries on domestic sale of petrol, diesel, kerosene and LPG at controlled prices. HPCL and BPCL rose by between 1.31% to 1.77%. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) rose 1.77%. The company's board approved a liberal 1:1 bonus issue on 14 September 2009.

The government last week issued bonds worth over Rs 10,306 crore to three oil marketing PSUs to compensate them for the losses incurred on account of selling petroleum products below market price. While bonds worth Rs 6,207.06 were issued to IOC, Rs 2,033.99 crore worth bonds were given to HPCL and Rs 2,065.28 crore worth of bonds were given to BPCL.

India's largest cellular services provider by sales Bharti Airtel fell 1.17%. A delegation of South African officials has reportedly told Indian policymakers on Thursday that the latest change in takeover rules would make it more difficult for telecom major MTN to execute a proposed merger deal with Bharti Airtel. Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) announced early this week the takeover laws would apply to all future issues of American Depositary Receipts (ADR) or Global Depositary Receipts (GDR) with voting rights.

Bharti and MTN have been in negotiations since 25 May 2009 on a $23 billion cash and share-swap deal aimed at an eventual full merger. The deadline for the talks has been extended twice, most recently the deadline was put back another month to 30 September 2009.

Metal stocks fell as LMEX, a gauge of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange fell 2.64% on Thursday, 24 September 2009. Tata Steel, Steel Authority of India, Jindal Saw, Hindalco Industries, JSW Steel fell by between 1.65% to 3.81%.

India's largest copper maker by sales Sterlite Industries fell 1.53%. A US bankruptcy judge on Thursday rejected attempts by India's Sterlite Industries Ltd to sweeten its offer for U.S. copper miner Asarco LLC, and recommended for the second time that rival bidder Grupo Mexico SAB de CV regain control of the company. Sterlite, however, maintained it was still in the race to acquire the copper miner.

Sterlite said on Monday that it would release Grupo Mexico from a potential legal liability of nearly $8 billion if the Indian miner can win control of bankrupt US copper miner Asarco LLC.

In a court document filed on Monday, Sterlite said that if a federal court approves its plan to acquire Asarco over rival bidder Grupo Mexico's offer, it would not hold Grupo Mexico liable for more than about $900 million of liability related to the 2003 transfer of a Peruvian mine. Sterlite, a unit of India-focused mining company Vedanta Resources, has been facing off with Mexican miner Grupo Mexico for acquiring control Asarco, which has been under bankruptcy protection since 2005.

IT stocks fell on weak US home sales data. US is the biggest market for Indian IT firms. India's third largest software services exporter by sales Wipro fell 2.04%.

India's largest IT exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services fell 2.06%. TCS recently secured a five-year Rs 140-crore project to build and operate a state-wide area network in southern Andhra Pradesh state.

The new head of Tata Consultancy Services N. Chandrasekaran, who takes over as chief executive when S. Ramadorai retires on 5 October 2009 said in an interview to a news agency on Thursday that it would take another few months to tell whether business spending was recovering, as customers were still working on their IT budgets for 2010.

India's second largest software services exporter by sales Infosys fell 1.74% on concerns of higher expenses after a report it plan to give pay rises and promotions next month.

Banking stocks fell on profit taking. Banking stocks have risen sharply in the past few days on higher advance tax payment by some top banks in the second installment this fiscal. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank fell 2.5% as its ADR fell 2.89% on Thursday.

India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank fell 0.84% as its ADR fell 1.64% on Thursday.

India's largest bank by net profit and branch network State Bank of India fell 0.9%. Chairman O.P. Bhatt on 8 September 2009 said the bank's earnings are likely to grow 30-35% in Q2 September 2009 over Q2 September 2008.

Realty stocks rose on reports demand for residential projects in major cities is picking up on lower home loan rates, property price cuts by developers and a recovery in the job market. Realty market had slumped last year amid a global credit crunch and buyers fearing job losses. DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate and Ansal Properties, Ackruti City rose by between 0.51% to 4.1%.

Pharmaceutical stocks hogged the limelight with a number of stocks in the sector surging. According to a recent prepared by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) alongwith Ernst and Young (E&Y), the Indian pharmaceutical market will treble to $20 billion by 2015 from $7.1 billion in 2007, with a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.3%.

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories surged 10.5% after the company's American depository receipt, or ADR, jumped 5.35% to $19.49 on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, 24 September 2009.

Among other pharma stocks, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Cipla and Pfizer rose by between 3.17% to 6.63%.

Some cement stocks fell on profit taking. ACC, Ambuja Cements, Ultratech Cement fell by between 0.01% to 1.19%. A thrust on the infrastructure sector in the Union Budget 2009-2010 may keep cement demand strong. But cement makers recently cut prices by Rs 3 per 50 kilogram bag in Mumbai.

Construction shares rose as higher government spending on infrastructure sector in the Union Budget 2009-2010 to provide a stimulus to the economy, may result in increase order flow for construction. Nagarjuna Construction Company, Gammon India, Gayatri Projects, Valecha Engineering rose by between 0.17% to 5.28%.

The government has set a target of spending $20 billion a year on road construction.

Jaiprakash Associates rose 0.1%. The company on Wednesday raised around Rs 1,190 crore through sale of 5 crore treasury shares by way of bulk deals on the bourses.

FMCG pivotals rose on revival of annual monsoon since mid-August. FMCG firms derive substantial revenue from the rural sector. Nestle India, Marico, Hindusatn Unilever, ITC, United Spirits, Dabur India Britannia Industries rose by between 0.38% to 3.57%.

Fertiliser shares rose on revival of annual monsoon since mid-August. GSFC, GNFC, National Fertilizer, Rashtriya Chemical & Fertilisers rose by between 3.19% to 17.69%. Fertilizer sales are directly dependent on monsoon. A bountiful monsoon boosts sales whereas a drought hits sales adversely.

Revival in the monsoon in mid-August 2009 has improved prospects for an early sowing of winter crops including wheat and canola, and replenished water levels in reservoirs. Farmers use this water to grow wheat and oilseeds planted between October and December.

India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro fell 0.71% on profit tasking. The company on Thursday won an order worth more than Rs 2000 crore from GMR Energy.

Among other capital goods stocks, Bharat Heavy Electricals, BEML, ABB, Praj Industries, fell by between 0.18% to 1.67%.

Auto stocks fell on profit taking. The stocks rallied recently on hopes of strong sales in the upcoming festive season. India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra fell 1.3%. India's largest motorbike maker by sales Hero Honda Motors fell 0.12%.

But, India's top small car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki rose 0.47%. As per reports, the government will release pay arrears to government employees under the second and final installment ahead of big festivals in October 2009. The payout would boost demand for cars and motorcycles.

India's largest truck maker by sales Tata Motors fell 1.65%. Tata Motors-owned Jaguar Land Rover on Thursday unveiled a new business plan for the next decade, under which it will invest substantially in a new range of eco-friendly vehicles. The plan, designed to increase global competitiveness, drive growth and sustain profitability, envisages an investment of £800 million (over Rs 6,200 crore) on environmental innovation alone, part-supported by the European Investment Bank.

The plan will also see the company shutting down of one of its plants, in a bid to cut costs and to improve its financial health.

Domestic car sales rose 26% to 120,669 units in August 2009 over August 2008 boosted by new launches and availability of cheaper loans, data released by the industry body Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers on 8 September 2009, showed. Sales of trucks and buses rose 18.5% to 40,624 units and motorcycle sales rose 26% to 611,173 units.

Sugar stocks reversed early gains as farm minister Sharad Pawar on Thursday said the government will extend tax-free imports of white sugar beyond November 2009. The move is aimed at keeping a lid on prices of the commodity which have risen sharply due to fall in production. Dhampur Sugars, Bajaj Hindustan and Balrampur Chini fell by between 0.12% to 0.86%.

Union Cabinet late last week extended limits on stocks that can be held by traders of sugar until September 2010.

Cals Refineries clocked highest volume of 10.81 crore shares on BSE. Ispat Industries (1.32 crore shares), King Fisher Airlines (1.25 crore shares), IFCI (1.14 crore shares) and Suzlon Energy (0.98 crore shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Reliance Industries clocked highest turnover of Rs 222.99 crore on BSE. Tata Steel (Rs 155.45 crore), DLF (Rs 143.61 crore), IDBI Bank (Rs 121.36 crore) and Educomp Solutions (Rs 113.04 crore) were other turnover toppers in that order.

India - Silk park planned at Kancheepuram

Union Textiles Minister Dayanidhi Maran on Wednesday said the government would consider setting up of an integrated textile park exclusively for the silk industry at Kancheepuram.

He gave the assurance when an eight-member delegation of the Kancheepuram silk industry, led by Member of Parliament representing Kancheepuram P.Viswanathan. The government has so far sanctioned 40 textile parks in different parts of the country and 15 more are in the pipeline.

Of the sanctioned parks, 10 are in Maharashtra, seven in Gujarat, six each in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, four in Rajasthan and two each in Punjab and West Bengal and one each in Karnataka, Assam and Madhya Pradesh.

The parks are intended to provide the industry with world-class infrastructure to meet international environmental and social standards and each would normally have 50 units.

India - Road projects to create a Rs.2,128-crore market for geotech industry by 2012 news:

Major beneficiaries: SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd and ZENITH FIBRES LTD.

SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd is setting up a Technical Textile Park in the State of Himachal Pradesh for which concerned SPV has applied for the approvals from the Ministry of Textiles of Government of India for sanctioning the Project under the Scheme for Integrated Textile Park (SITP).

The said project would be one shop solution for entire manufacturing process for the technical textile products which include hygiene products like wipes, diapers, sanitary napkins, panty shields and surgical clothing i.e. gloves, masks, gowns etc. The project will be setup with an Overall investment of app Rs.500.00 Crores and would cover an area of 100 acres (approx.) of land and is expected to generate Employment for 10000 people (approx).

The textile ministry expects the national highway projects and the Pradhan Mantri Gramin Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) together to give a potential market of Rs2,128-crore for the country's geotech industry.

The geotech industry, which includes geo textiles, geogrids, geonets, geomembranes, geocomposites, etc, will have a business potential of Rs1,260 crore in the upgradtion of the 21,000km national highway, Bhupendra Singh, joint secretary in the ministry of textiles, said in New Delhi today.

The country has a road network of 33,00,000 km, of which national highways, state highways and expressways account for 70,548, 131,98 km and 200 km, respectively, he told a conference on geotextiles. Under the Bharat Nirman component of the Pradhan Mantri Gramin Sadak Yojana (PMGSY), 24,000 km of roads will be laid in 2009-10 and Geotech will have a market potential Rs868 crore, Singh said.

He said the government has proposed spending to the tune of Rs3,76,500 crore ($78.5 billion) for development of road infrastructure during the 11th Plan period and the government expects the technical textile industry to shape up to exploit the potential.

Sudripta Roy, secretary-general of the International Jute Study Group (IJSG), said there is a need to maintain the jute supply chain, if the industry is to exploit the opportunity thrown up by increased global awareness about environmental sustainability.

India emerging as a manufacturing hub for cars:

The four-door hatchback will be built in Chennai where the company has invested $500 million to double the capacity of an existing plant to 200,000 units a year.

This is very good news for Sicagen India Ltd (to some extent at it sells commercial vehicles) and Refex Refrigerants Ltd (who sells refrigerant gases to the auto and consumer durable companies)...

London: India is emerging as an auto manufacturing centre with Ford also choosing to manufacture its new small car Figo here- the latest in the new wave of small cars to be built in the country by foreign car makers.

The four-door hatchback will be built in Chennai where the company has invested $500 million to double the capacity of an existing plant to 200,000 units a year, the Times reported.

It will be sold both in India, which has a 250 million plus middleclass, and overseas.

The company, which had incurred losses to the tune of $30 billion between 2006 and 2008, hopes that the young Indian population would go for the new car in a big way and help turn the company’s fortune.

General Motors, Toyota, Honda, Volkswagen and Nissan sell small cars in India or will do so soon. Tata took the initiative in this regard with its Nano costing Rs. one lakh plus taxes and delivery charges.

Markets may rise further in the next 6 months

My recommended Kisan Mouldings Ltd at Rs.25-Rs.26, last month, hit the buyer freeze today as it closed at Rs.46.05

So what should be our strategy now??!! This portion is only for the Paid Groups and Portfolio Management Service Clients.....

NEW YORK: Given that US stocks have rallied nearly 60 percent in just six months, you'd expect valuations were getting a bit prohibitive. Why realty is good investment.

But the resiliency of the latest rally shows that investors are unfazed by the market's current multiples, regarding stocks as still relatively cheap.

With interest rates close to zero, earnings expected to improve in the third quarter, and inflation subdued, stock market bulls have much working in their favor, making it likely that the market will rise further in the next six months.

The Dow Jones industrial average is nearing 10,000, a far cry from its closing low of 6,547.05 in March. The benchmark S&P 500 .SPX -- up nearly 19 percent year-to-date -- has its sights set on 1,100 after closing at a 12-year low of 676.53 in March.

Low interest rates have revived the argument prevalent during the 'Goldilocks' period of the late 1990s and middle of this decade justifying higher valuation for shares.

"Stocks do remain relatively cheap," said Philip Orlando, senior portfolio manager at Federated Global Investment Management Corp in New York.

"Multiples right now are probably around 16 times forward earnings. But because we are looking at very low core inflation, roughly about 1.4 percent, and 10-year Treasury yields below 3.5 percent level, we can justify multiples that approach 20 times."

The current S&P 500's forward P/E implies $66.83 earnings per share, based on individual estimated operating earnings for the 500 companies. Back in early March, the S&P 500's forward P/E was about 11 times, which was below the historical average of 16 times.

Also working in the bulls favor has been the market's ability to rebound from every attempted sell-off since the start of the runup. That development, analysts say, also shows that investors were willing to use dips as opportunities to get into the market.

BETTER ECONOMIC OUTLOOK:

To get an even more optimistic picture of how far the market has come, some analysts point to the S&P 500's trailing price-to-earnings ratio, based on past 12 months operating earnings.

That measure is at 20.6 times, up from 11 times in early March, according to Thomson Reuters data. That figure implies total trailing S&P 500 earnings of $51.97 per share.

"I don't think the market is overvalued," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. in San Francisco.

"The economy is doing better than expected and gross domestic product is going to reflect that and profits are going to reflect that. The market was not adequately pricing in the strength of the third quarter," he added.

Even the traditionally tortuous month of September, which has historically opened the door to seasonal weakness for stocks, is proving to be a banner time for the bulls, with the S&P 500 making a run for its best September in 11 years.

"One of the bearish arguments is that the gain in prices has made the market expensive, which of course suggests it was inexpensive six months ago, so why didn't they buy then?," said Laszlo Birinyi, founder and president of market research firm Birinyi Associates, based in Stamford, Connecticut. Earlier this month he studied the market's 25 leading percentage gainers since the March bottom -- including Google Inc, Merck, Apple Inc and General Electric. His study showed that if the leaders were to return to 2007 multiples and the rest of the list followed suit, that argues for another 33 percent gain in the S&P 500 to the 1,394 level.

"We are not insisting or forecasting that level, but would suggest that the contention that the market is expensive is - financials excepted - not necessarily the case," Birinyi said in a note. But not everyone is convinced that the market isn't overstretched, with the S&P 500 at the farthest it has ever been above its 200-day moving average in more than 20 years.

"Too many cheerleaders are suggesting that the 'September curse' is broken now that equity indices have continued to climb even as the critical tests will come around the pre-announcement and earnings reports period that tends to start in late September leading into mid-October," said Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup's chief U.S. equity strategist.

The trailing P/E is a "distinct negative," he said, noting that since 1940, when ratios reach such lofty heights, the market has posted negative performances in the next 12 months. Admittedly, stocks still climbed rapidly in 1999 when the multiple was similarly north of 20 times, but that did not end well either.

Worst of global recession behind us: Google CEO:

Now Google is telling what I mentioned 4 (four) months back......

W S Industries Ltd recommnded to the Paid Groups, in this Sunday Report, moved to Rs.48.70, before cooling down a bit. The stock was recommended at Rs.44.4.

Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd almost hit the buyer freeze on some positive developments in the counter. The stock was earlier asked to be accumulated at Rs.4 Rs.4.25 range. The company got the permission for setting up an entertainment channel. This is in addition to the other channels whose approval the company already received. PITTSBURGH: Google Inc Chief Executive Eric Schmidt said acquisitions are "turned on again" at the Internet company and expects to do one small deal a month instead of hiring new staff.

Schmidt also reiterated his view that the worst of the global recession is over, seeing improvement both inside and outside the United States.

"It's clear that the worst is behind us," Schmidt told Reuters Television in an interview on Wednesday, ahead of delivering a speech on green technology on the fringes of the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

"What we see at Google is some level of improvement and what is more important is we see it not just in the United States but outside the United States," he said.

Schmidt also said acquisition activity was returning to normal at his company. Google has historically maintained a steady pace of acquiring small, privately held companies but its deal machine took a breather earlier this year when Schmidt said that prices were too high for his liking.

"Acquisitions are turned on again at Google and we are doing our normal maneuvers, which is small companies. My estimate would be one-a-month acquisitions and these are largely in lieu of hiring," Schmidt said.

"There may be larger acquisitions but they really are unpredictable."

'Enjoy the Asian asset bubble while it lasts'

Hong Kong: Monetary policy in the West will remain easy in response to anaemic economic growth, but the prime beneficiary of this will be investors in Asia, where asset prices will boom -- and likely even get bubbly, says CLSA equity strategist Chris Wood.

"We're going to witness an extended period of weak, sub-par growth in the West, forcing governments to keep their interest rates low," says Wood. "My base case is that monetary policy in the West will remain easy, which will be way too easy for Asia."

This, he reckons, is the trigger for "overwhelming probability of Asian equity outperformance, leading potentially to Asian asset bubbles." It's likely that Asian central banks will not tighten pre-emptively, which gives investors an opportunity to ride the bubble for a while.

China and India, in his estimation, remain great long-term growth stories, and the two nations have "for all practical purposes" decoupled from the US so far this year. For global investors, India is a good complementary investment to China. "You don't want to bet all your money on China, and India complements China particularly because they are so different from each other."

In India's case, says Wood, the growth story for the next five years is related to investments in infrastructure, and not necessarily a consumption story. He remains structurally overweight India and China, he adds.

If a bubble does build up in Asia, its epicentre will most likely be in China, but rather than be wary of a bubble, investors can profit from it, reckons Wood. "You should be more overweight Asia if you sense there is an asset bubble on the way, because it will lead to massive outperformance."

Obviously, he says, at some point you want to worry about the peak of the bubble, "but we're not there yet." Asia's fundamentals are good, and western governments are creating easy money, which, being fungible, will find its way here.

The rally in US equities was more in the nature of a "relief rally" and in anticipation of a recovery, but disappointment will likely set in next year as it becomes clear that US gowth is going to remain anaemic, and is not a normal recovery, says Wood.

Investors in the US have been ignoring consumption and unemployment data, which are lagging indicators and which show the recovery to be fundamentally weak. And although the US housing market looks like it is at or close to a bottom, it isn't likely to rebound anytime soon. "I don't see a sudden pick-up; it's more likely to bump around at the bottom for an extended period," says Wood.

"I like commercial air-conditioning business": Mr.Samir Aurora:

It is to be noted that Mr. Samir Arora runs Singapore based Helios Capital and is known for his candid talk.

This is from one of his interviews, with a Television Channel, some months back.

I like commercial airconditioning business for I believe that this is the best way to play creation of urban infrastructure- malls/IT parks/airports/hotels/high rise office blocks etc all need a much higher proportion of commercial airconditioning content. We own the leader in a significant way (also because of its international business and other segments).

I liked real estate sector earlier this year as the stocks were discounting serious liquidity issues- which starting disappearing as companies raised capital. I do not like mid cap real estate companies and I do not consider normal companies which have some valuable piece of land as real estate companies.

Also, in many such cases where a normal company has some real estate and it sells or develops that land, there is no guarantee that they will not invest the proceeds in their mediocre current businesses (some how all companies which were sitting on valuable land parcels were otherwise really mediocre).

Basically what we like are companies that can compound their earnings for a long time with infrequent dilutions. Infrastructure sector offers the possibility of years of growth which will basically be exploited by the same group of companies (in each sector). I do not like areas where the top down growth is not so obvious and not so high (telecom sector for example currently). Within the infrastructure sector I like power sector.

I read 3-4 investment books a month and my all time favorite is “Fooled by Randomness”. Other books I have liked are “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”, “The Future for Investors” , “Against the Gods”, “The Black Swan”. “When Genius Failed” “Devil takes the Hindmost” etc. These books are for enjoying not only for necessarily learning.

In my fund I do not invest in fixed income or indeed anything other than listed stocks At a personal level, I think that individuals who are not full time investors (and therefore have an independent source of income via job/business etc) can afford to have a high allocation to equities. In fact professional investors (who try to make a living through investments) should have a certain portion allocated to fixed income to provide stability in bad phases.

The problem with the stockmarkets is that retail investors, who have the luxury of being long-term choose to be short-term and institutional investors, who have the resources to be short term, use them to try and achieve long-term success. No wonder none of these groups are successful, and the debate never ends.

Refex Refrigerants Ltd: Some Thoughts:

1. Refex Refrigerants Ltd is the only player in the country which has the distinction of refilling and marketing hydrofluorocarbons, which is a non-ozone depleting, environmentally safe refrigerant developed to replace chloro-flouro-carbons in several air conditioning and refrigeration applications. Refex is also planning a big push of HFC gas cans for car air-conditioners. Refex earlier launched HFC gas in cans. All air-conditioned cars need to change gas once in 24 months. With this initiative the cost will come down by 50% for the car owner. Refex Refrigerants Ltd has applied for Carbon Credits and hopes to get the same from the international authorities. But there is an arugment here: It is well known that the companies like Guj Fluoro/Navin Fluorine being manufacturers of HFC can claim carbon credits however, since Refex just imports and packages them, there is a question mark regarding its approval of getting Carbon Credits, from International Authorities. However, its renewable energy initiatives could help it get the same without much hassle.

2. A couple of years back, Bennett, Coleman & Co (BCCL) inked an agreement to pick up around 3.5% stake in the equity capital of Chennai-based Refex Refrigerants. The company is in the process of building Refex as a national brand and BCCL can add tremendous value to its branding initiatives.

3. Poor offtake in Automobile and Consumer durable sectors contributed to the drop in business in 2008-09 and Q1FY10. However, with both these sectors picking up, the company is expected to do well going forward.

4. Today the current market for HFCs is about 34,000 tonne in the country. So after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol by January 2010, the shift will be to HFC-based business. So, definitely the market is big for this and undoubtly Refex Refrigerants Ltd with its expanded capacity by March, 2010, will be a major beneficiary.

5. Refrex plans to export hydro fluorocarbons or HFCs to developed markets like the US and Europe after importing it from China and Singapore. The company imports refrigerant gases in liquefied form, regasifies it and packages it in cans in India.

6. A couple of years abck the company received a special import licence for importing 2000 MT of HCFC-based refrigerants from DGFT. Sales to automobile companies would contribute about 40% to both topline and bottomline in FY10.

7. Clients of Refex Refrigerants Ltd, include Hyundai Motors, Tata Motors, Hindustan Motors, Reva Electric Car Company, sports car maker San Motors, Toyota Kirloskar, Godrej and Boyce, Blue Star, Carrier Aircon, and the like.

8. Television Eighteen India Ltd and Bennet Colomen & Company Ltd (BCCL) holds 1.78% and 2.5% stake in the company. This shows that the company has a good background. Moreover, its partnership with BCCL and TV18 for print and Television, will help it in its initiative of big brand building exericise.

9. At the current price of Rs.32.15, the dividend yield is a whooping 6.22%. Moreover, the company has decided to pay dividend during FY10 also. The market cap is only Rs.49.75 Cr for such a huge company. Moreover, market cap/sales is only 0.6 for FY09. If the company indeed achieves what they are aiming to do by 2010, the stock can turn out to be at least 6-7 bagger in just 18 months.

10. The company's renewable energy projects would be ready by December, 2009. Hence this is expected go give some cushion against the escalating interest cost. Its subsidiaries, Sherisha Technologies (S) Pte Ltd, Singapore and its step-down subsidiaries namely, Kaltech Engineering & Refrigeration Pte Ltd, Singapore and Global Refrigerants (S) Pte Ltd, are expected to contribute substantial parts to its revenue basket going forward. The pledging of the shares by the promoters is just a temporary arrangements and is expected to be released soon.

The stock of Refex Refrigerants Ltd should be purchased on all declines for a price target of Rs.150--Rs.170, in the next 18 months time frame.

SEL to set up Technical Textile Park in Himachal Pradesh

SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd has informed that the Company is setting up a Technical Textile Park in the State of Himachal Pradesh for which concerned SPV has applied for the approvals from the Ministry of Textiles of Government of India for sanctioning the Project under the Scheme for Integrated Textile Park (SITP).

The said project would be one shop solution for entire manufacturing process for the technical textile products which include hygiene products like wipes, diapers, sanitary napkins, panty shields and surgical clothing i.e. gloves, masks, gowns etc.The project will be setup with an Overall investment of app Rs 500.00 Crores and would cover an area of appx. 100 acres of land and is expected to generate Employment for appx. 10000 people.

SEL inaugurates Greenfield Mega Integrated Textile Project

SEL Manufacturing Company Limited has now added two more feathers in its cap, by inaugurating Greenfield Mega Integrated Textile Project, in tandem with laying foundtion stone for Rhythm Textiles and Apparel Park Limited, on September 4, at Village Sekhan Majra, District Nawan Shaher, Punjab.

The plant was inaugurated today by President (SAD), S Sukhbir Singh Badal. Present on the occasion were S Charanjt Singh Atwal, Deputy Speaker, Lok Sabha, S Sharanjeet Singh Dhillon, M P, Jathedar Hira Singh Gahbria, Cabinet Minister, S Jitender Singh Kariha, M L A, Nawan Sheher, Prof Rajinder Bhandari, President Punjab BJP and Sh Harish Bedi, M L A, Ludhiana (North).

The Company is implementing the project for setting up one of the largest Technical Textiles facilities in India. Here medical clothing, wipes, diapers and Geotextiles would be manufactured to support the growing infrastructure requirements of India. SEL would further enhance its product mix by adding value added products like Designer Terry Towels integrated with Open End Spinning facilities. It is also in process of creating self sufficiency in Power by setting up Captive Power Plant for its existing and upcoming manufacturing facilities.

The SAD President also laid the foundation stone of Rhythm Textile and Apparels Park Ltd on this day. The park with a capacity to manufacture 54.00 million pieces per annum of Knitted Garments would be one of the largest garmenting manufacturing facilities under one roof. With a covered area of 10 lakh sq ft, it would be one stop solution for garment manufacture having facilities from knitting, printing, embroidery, washing, packing, labelling etc.

The park is expected to generate employment for about 25000 people.

In the month of May, SEL had already received approvals for this project from the Ministry of Textiles, under the Scheme for Integrated Textile Park (SITP) entitling to get maximum subsidy of 40 percent of total infrastructure cost for setting up the same by the SPV.

Speaking on the occasion, Mr Neeraj Saluja, Managing Director said, “We aim to be among the top three integrated textile makers in India by two years.”

Further he stated that the Company has set up a residential colony for its workers, has a well-equipped and modernized training centre for development and upgradation of its work force.

India - New cotton crop starts arriving in Gujarat and Punjab

Arrival of new cotton crop has started in Gujarat and Punjab, which are daily receiving 2,000 bales and 3,000 bales respectively. However, the prices of this new cotton is lower than the last year due to poor quality of the produce.

Marketmen are of the view that the prices will firm up as the quality cotton starts arriving in the market.

Average price of cotton in Gujarat is currently quoted at Rs. 430 to Rs. 537 per 20 kg and in Gujarat, while in Punjab it is about Rs. 450 to Rs 525. Last year the price stood at Rs. 570 to Rs. 600 at the onset of the season.

According to traders and brokers in Saurashtra, the quality of cotton arriving in the market at the begning of the season tends to be lower as farmers offload only those stocks which are harvested in pre-monsoon period. At present, there is not much demand in the market but it will improve after Diwali. The demand will be driven mainly by exporters.

Cotton arrivals have started at various locations, which include Rajkot (arrival of 800 quintal cotton), Jasdan (160 quintal), Botad (360 quintals), Amreli (3000 quintal), Savarkundala (1,100 quintals), Halvad ( 2,400 quintal). Forward contract for October is being quoted at Rs. 22,100 to Rs. 22,200 per bale, November Rs. 22,700 to Rs. 22,800 per bale and December – January Rs. 23,000 to Rs. 23,100 per bale.

Market players estimate that exports of cotton may double to 65 lakh bales from around 32 lakh bales in this year. As per Cotton Association of India (CAI) India's cotton output may total 3.12 crore bales in 2009-10, 6.7 per cent more than the 2.93 crore bales in 2008-09. Cotton acreage has reached a record 1 crore hectares.