Monday, March 30, 2015

Yesterdays' recommendation Jindal Saw Ltd today moved to Rs.66.40 in the BSE before closing at Rs.65.95 up 11.87%. The stock is heading towards Rs.72-76 in the coming days. 
Gotanjali Gems Ltd today moved to Rs.41.75 intra-day before closing at Rs.41.30 in the BSE up 4.42%. India's gems and jewelry sector has been one of the fastest growing industries globally. The sector has contributed 6 - 7% to India's GDP and provides gainful employment to around 2.5 million people. 
Today GMR Infrastructure Ltd closed above Rs.15.70, which is positive for the bulls. Meanwhile, the company recently announced that GMR Airports Limited (“GAL”), a subsidiary of GMR Infrastructure Limited, on March 24, 2015 entered into an agreement to acquire 24,50,00,000 shares of face value of Rs.10 each, representing 10% equity stake in Delhi International Airport Private Limited (“DIAL”) from Malaysia Airports (Mauritius) Private Limited (“Malaysia Airports”) for a consideration of USD 79 million. DIAL is a special purpose vehicle formed to carry out development, operation and management of Indira Gandhi International Airport, Delhi (“Delhi Airport”). GAL currently holds 54% equity stake in DIAL and post proposed acquisition of the entire stake of Malaysia Airports, the stake will increase to 64%.  The scrip will slowly move towards Rs.22 in the coming days. 
Karuturi Global Ltd (Rs.1.63) is consolidating around Rs.1.59--1.70, before taking a major stride. According to my close sources, there would be an improvement in both its topline and bottomlines in the next 12 months. 
Jaiprakash Power Ventues Ltd which closed at Rs.10.22, should cross Rs.14-15, in the next 3-4 months time frame. It is a must buy for every investor. 
Today a buy (call) was given on Nifty, to the Paid Group members with a target of 8600. The Sensex closed with a gain of 517.22 points, while the Nifty closed at  8,492.30 up 150.90 points.  Today, DIIs were net of buyers of Rs.651.67 Cr of shares, while FIIs shares worth worth Rs.240.34 Cr. Those who have not sold their Nifty futures' open positions, can keep holding with a SL at 8410. 
A well known investment weekly has given a buy recommendation on Jindal Steel and Power Ltd at Rs.157. This makes a case to buy the shares of Jindal Saw Ltd (Rs.58.95) as both the shares, move in rhythm. 

Moreover, the said publication, also recommended Srikalahasthi Pipes Ltd, the erstwhile, Lanco Industries Ltd, the pig iron,  iron casting & spun pipes and cement manufacturing company at Rs.131; in this week's edition.

Meanwhile, there were recent media reports that Jindal Tubular (India) Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Jindal Saw Ltd has agreed to operate and maintain certain identified facilities of PSL Limited--this is a short term arrangement for one year which may be extended or modified, based on meeting of certain covenants and mutual acceptance at the appropriate time.

Besides, Jindal Saw Ltd has recently sent a press release that Jindal ITF Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (i.e. Jindal Saw Limited) has approved an internal re-structuring of its operations by way of demerger and vesting of its infrastructure business undertaking into JITF Urban Infrastructure Services Ltd, another wholly owned subsidiary of the Company and its waterways business undertaking into Jindal Shipyards Limited, again a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company by way of court sanctioned composite scheme of arrangement U/s 391, 394 and other applicable provisions of the Companies Act, 1956 and under applicable provisions of the Companies Act, 2013. The effectiveness of the scheme is subject to requisite approval by the shareholders, secured and unsecured creditors and sanction by the Hon'ble High Court of Judicature at Allahabad. 

Last week, the shares of Jindal Steel and Power jumped over 6% to hit intraday high of Rs.160 on the Bombay Stock Exchange after the Delhi High Court said that government's decision to cancel the bid of Jindal Power Ltd (JPL) for two Chhattisgarh coal mines by annulling the tender process and allotting them to Coal India Ltd (CIL) is "prima facie wrong".

"This does not smack of fairness. Prima facie we feel that it is wrong," a bench of justices Badar Durrez Ahmed and Sanjeev Sachdeva said in response to Additional Solicitor General (ASG) P S Narasimha's argument that the Coal Ministry had the right to take the decision.

"The more we look into it, the more we feel there should be an interim order. We are not impressed," the court said in response to the ASG's arguments opposing any interim order.

The court also gave adverse observations on one of the reasons given by the Coal Ministry to annul the tender process that comparing the price fetched in auction of other mines for power sector, the highest bid for Gare Palma IV/2 and IV/3 in Chhattisgarh did not reflect fair value.

"This is like comparing apples to oranges," the bench said in response to the argument and added that the Ministry's decision to annul the tender and then allot mines to CIL "does not leave a good taste in the mouth".
Karuturi Global consolidated quarterly net rises 31.35% 
Karuturi Global Ltd saw a substantial rise in consolidated net profit for the quarter ended December 2014. 

During the quarter, the profit of the company rose 31.35% to Rs.103.11 million from Rs.78.50 million in the same quarter last year.

Net sales for the quarter however declined 61.32% to Rs 569.81 million, compared with Rs.1,473.06 million for the prior year period.

Medium term investors, should buy the shares of Karuturi Global Ltd (Rs.1.60) in all declines; for some superb returns in the coming quarters. 
Naivasha’s Karuturi seals debt buyout deal, planning comeback 
NAIVASHA, March 27, 2015: Deposed Indian flower firm is planning a major comeback to Kenya next month, after entering a debt deal that would enable it retake its vast farms currently under control of its creditor CFC Stanbic Bank. 

Ramakrishna Karuturi
Photo: The Economic Times
Karuturi, accused of evading over Sh1 billion in taxes in Kenya, has convinced one of India’s biggest lenders Axis Bank to bail it out. The flower grower billed as the World’s largest cut rose supplier at over a million stems a day, has had a tough run punctuated by employee unrest at its Naivasha farms and land grab claims in its Ethiopian sister operation. 

Managing Director Ram Karuturi last week told an Indian investment analyst that his board had successfully restructured the company’s debt to pave way for the retake of the Kenyan business. “ Karuturi Global will settle the dues and get the farm back; Axis Bank has agreed to take over the outstanding to be paid to CFC,” the analyst identified as Vijay reported following a meeting with Mr Karuturi. 

Steve Luseno, Karuturi’s lawyer based in Nairobi, confirmed the fresh bailout and that the officials of Axis Bank had even visited the Naivasha farm to assess its viability, adding the officials had also met up with CFC bankers, a position we could, however, not confirm immediately. 

“We are certain that the new deal will have CFC hand back control of the farm to Karuturi, within weeks,” Luseno told the Standard on phone. The company had its annual general meeting Friday last week, where Man Mohan Agrawal - a former executive of Axis Bank was appointed as a non-executive director.

A return for Karuturi will be a significant milestone for the company which lost the Kenyan operation last year to local and international lenders and suppliers, including CFC Stanbic Bank. Before the lenders brought in receiver managers, Karuturi had experienced significant cash flow problems with staff going without salaries. 

But Karuturi’s possible return, following its annual general meeting in Bangalore India last week, could be a major turning point given the bad blood that preceded the exit. 

CFC appointed Ian Small and Kieran Day as joint receiver managers as it sought to recover its outstanding loans. 

Karuturi has since claimed that the receiver managers were running down the firm with an aim of eventually selling it on the cheap. Just last week, Karuturi accused its other debtor ICICI, through Receiver Manager Lolluri Kamasastry, of demolishing Sh270 million-worth house on the flower farm in a bid to damage the company’s brand equity. 

In a separate suit also playing out in court, Karuturi has accused CFC of seeking to dispose of the flower business rather than continuing operations to recover its outstanding loans. 

Now, Karuturi has threatened to institute a forensic audit on the operations of the flower farm covering the 16-months period when the business was under receivership. Karuturi Global will get a forensic audit done by one of the top consulting firms, Mr Karuturi is quoted to be saying.

Courtesy: Standard Digital

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Rabies is almost 100% Fatal: Keep away from un-vaccinated Dogs, Cats, Bats, Horses, etc
Photo Editor: Suman Mukherjee
Mumbai (Bombay) Metropolitan Region (MMR) and Navi Mumbai (New Bombay) are the Heavens for stray dogs and cats.  This has put the lives of common citizens in jeopardy, with successive state governments virtually doing very little to stop this menace. 

Many people object to killing these animals rather than sterilizing them, to limit their population; giving various arguments. This is one of the major problems, faced by the BMC, to make the streets free of stray dogs and cats. 
You can see that Australia is almost RABIES FREE,
while look at the Asian and African Countries.....!!

I think you know that dogs have a major religious significance among the Hindus in Nepal and India, particularly in Mithlanchal, North Bengal and Sikkim. The dogs are worshiped as a part of a five-day Tihar festival that falls roughly in November every year. In Hinduism, it is believed that dogs guard the doors of Heaven and Hell. This makes the task of their elimination, even more difficult; as their is a religious sentiment attached to them.... 

But, I do not find any reason why the Stray dogs and cats should not be summarily killed to safeguard the human population!! What is the benefit of having a stray dog barking the whole day and sometimes biting, without any notice?

By the way, when innocent Chickens (hens and cocks), Goats, Sheep, Buffalos, etc are butchered by half-slitting their throats, then what happens to these "Conscience Keepers" called "Animal Lovers"? If they cannot stop people from eating meat of animals, murdered in such a pathetic way, then what is the harm to kill these 4-legged-living-time-bombs?

In Mumbai, after lot of complaints and push, at last the  Devendra Gangadharrao Fadnavis government has decided to set up temporary sterilization centres in every node to curb population of stray dogs. 

But I feel that instead of spending time on such soft measures, the government should bring in an amendment to kill the stray ones, so that the lives of the people are safe in Mumbai and other Indian cities. 

Meanwhile, the Honourable Supreme Court, last month agreed to examine whether municipal bodies can kill stray dogs merely on a complaint that they have become a "nuisance" to the public. A bench of Justices Dipak Misra and Prafulla C Pant said that it will look into the contradiction in animal welfare laws on what constitutes 'nuisance'. 

Mumbai Municipal Corporation Act says that if it receives a complaint that a dog has become a source of nuisance to the public, they can seize the offending animal and put it to sleep permanently. But you know India has lot of archaic laws and one of them  formulated under the central law - Prevention of Cruelty to Animals Act of 1960 - does not allow this. The 1960 law only permits the extermination of rabid, terminally-ill or mortally wounded dogs, and not nuisance-causing dogs. 

The court was hearing a bunch of petitions filed by an organization called People for Elimination of Stray Animals, seeking killing of stray dogs and by animal's right activists for protecting stray animals. 

Saturday, March 28, 2015

NDA govt presses ahead with reform agenda 
[Editor: I know that, if this bill becomes an act, then it will give a solid push to the infrastructure of India. However, I am sure that if NDA were in opposition, then they would have done the same thing, what some of opposition parties are doing now. This is the nature of "DIRTY POLITICS", being played in India. It true but a sad fact that none of the Political Parties are concerned about India or Indians; they are more busy discrediting the other, so that they can rule for longer durations. 
We should understand that "Politics is a business". And the political parties in India would do anything which will boost their "business"--this has nothing much to do with the development of a state or the country] 
New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government on Friday decided to prorogue the Rajya Sabha, where it is battling strident resistance by opposition parties against the land acquisition bill, and extend an executive order in a signal of its resolve to push forward its reform agenda. 

“The cabinet committee on parliamentary affairs recommends proroguing the Rajya Sabha with immediate effect,” parliamentary affairs minister M. Venkaiah Naidu said after a meeting of the committee. 

The step will allow repromulgation of the 31 December ordinance on land acquisition, which will give time to the government to take up the bill for passage at a later date. The ordinance is due to lapse on 5 April. 

Mint was the first to report on 23 March that the government would repromulgate the land ordinance. 

The NDA is in a minority in the Upper House where the Congress and other opposition parties have staunchly resisted the amended land acquisition bill that they say is anti-farmer because it makes it easier for businesses to acquire land. 

Changes introduced in the legislation by the government do away with the need for developers of projects related to defence, rural electrification, housing for the poor and industrial corridors to acquire the approval of a majority of affected landowners. 

Nor would they need a social impact study involving public hearings, as prescribed in the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act, 2013. 

Parliament in its budget session is on a month-long recess. For issuing an ordinance when Parliament is in session, at least one of the Houses has to be prorogued.

“There have been five instances when one House was prorogued and bills have been repromulgated,” said a minister who was part of the decision-making process. 

“The first instance was in 1957 when Lok Sabha was in session and Rajya Sabha was prorogued. There have been other instances in 1964, 1987, 1994 and 1996. The government will now have to repromulgate the land acquisition ordinance and bring it in Parliament later.” The minister didn’t want to be named. 

The original Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement (Amendment) Bill, 2013, was passed by both Houses of Parliament and notified on 1 January 2014. It was shepherded by the previous Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government to replace a law dating back to 1894. 

A key provision of the 2013 law was seeking the consent of 80% of farmers for private acquisition of land and 70% for public-private partnerships. It also sought a social impact study involving public hearings. 

Meanwhile, two people in the rural development ministry said on condition of anonymity that the central government was mulling when to re-issue the ordinance—before or after 5 April. 

The text of the re-promulgated ordinance is likely to be the same as the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement (Amendment) Bill, 2015, approved by the Lok Sabha on 10 March and the cabinet on Wednesday. 

The government sought cabinet approval for the bill again this week as it had incorporated nine amendments aimed at blunting opposition criticism that the bill was anti-farmer. 

The amendments include mandatory employment for at least one member from each family displaced by land acquisition. Another provides for the government to ensure that the land acquired is the bare minimum required for a project and a third calls on the government to undertake a survey of wastelands. 

Rural development minister Chaudhary Birender Singh had on Wednesday indicated that the government would make another effort to forge consensus on the land bill. 

“We will get in touch with the opposition parties so that a consensus is arrived at, which is in the country’s interests and farmers’ interests. We are hopeful that we will be successful and the Act with new amendments will take the shape of a law,” PTI quoted the minister as saying. 

The minister also indicated that the government was likely to yield on the consent clause that the 2015 bill does away with.

“But we want to take farmers on board for this. I don’t think 70-80% will be possible. If consensus is there (with other parties), we may think of lowering it to 50-60%, but the consent should be of the landowners and not those who may be occupying that piece of land,” the minister had said last week. 

Meanwhile, Congress chief Sonia Gandhi on Friday rejected the offer of an open debate on the land bill issued in a letter by transport minister Nitin Gadkari on 19 March. 

“Proposition of a post-facto debate after unilateral imposition of anti-farmer law is mockery of building partisan consensus,” Gandhi said in her response to Gadkari. 

Slamming the government for depicting critics of the land bill as anti-national, she asked the government to “rise above its narrow-minded politics”. 

The government needs to coordinate with opposition parties to get the land acquisition bill passed in the Rajya Sabha, said Sanjay Kumar, a political analyst and director of Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. 

“This step of the government will destroy the cordial relation between the government and opposition parties. It may not be a clever move,” he said. “Talking to farmers will not get the bill passed in Parliament, it will only get passed by the members of Parliament. Even if farmers listen to the Prime Minister and start to support him on the bill by not protesting, this process will take a very long time and it will not be an easy task.”

Courtesy: Live Mint
Immigration official at Delhi airport suspended for sexually harassing Bengaluru woman
[Editor: I am no way related to Mr.Vinod Kumar, but decided to put this news report on my main blog and not the Current Affairs blog, because the matter is pretty serious for Indian Men (or for any sane Indian citizen). Why? It is because no on knows what is the  name of the women, because the media always gives one-sided coverage for such incidents. If the name of the  man can be given, then the name of the women should also be revealed otherwise, the things do not become gender neutral. Also, it is not known whether the women in question is trying to character assassinate Mr.Vinod or not because the matter is subudice. Now look at the following disgusting comment: "First I would like to apologise (to her) on behalf of Indian government, though I am just a part of it, a small cog in the very big wheel. But the entire incident which has happened is shameful and the officer should be suspended," NCW chairperson Lalitha Kumaramangalam said. 
Now she has apologized without even trying to find out whether this indent actually took place or not. Moreover, this lady, Lalitha Kumarmangalam, has already pronounced the verdict, even though the trial has not taken place in any court of law!! Am I right? 
Now tell me if such persons become the head of dangerous-gender-biased-men-hating organizations like National Commission for Women (NCW), then does it not violate the basic principles on which India was created?
In absence of National Commission for Men, how is this gender based organization allowed to exist in India? But then you know the quality of the majority Indian politicians!! 
Also see how the media has presented the news. In the photo it is said, "Questions the officer asked", but they were culled out from the complaint filed by her father-in-law; which may be true or false. Isn't it? What can you say for such biased reporting by one of the leading newspapers like Hindustan Times? The time has therefore, come for the intelligentsia to fight against such shameful media presentation and the equally pathetic comments from the NCW chief. Remember if you do not protest such misrepresentation by the vested groups (and NCW is a government body), tomorrow it might happen in your homes]
New Delhi/ Bengaluru| Mar 28, 2015: The home ministry suspended an immigration officer at Delhi’s international airport on Friday after a woman accused him of harassing her during immigration check while she was en route to Hong Kong from Delhi on March 18.

The suspension came after the woman went to the media with her story as a complaint she emailed to the officer’s superiors on March 23 went unaddressed.

While reviewing her passport, the officer, Vinod Kumar, allegedly asked the woman several inappropriate questions, including if she slept with other men when her husband was at work and if she wanted to have her third child with him.

He proceeded to follow her up an escalator at the airport, the woman told reporters in Bengaluru on Friday.

After giving her pursuer the slip, the woman caught her flight but returned on March 23 with her husband and attempted to file a written complaint with Kumar’s senior at the Bureau of Immigration in Delhi.

The senior officer was uncooperative and refused to accept the complaint. He asked her to send him an email instead. Kumar also emerged on the scene and a verbal spat ensued. The woman emailed her complaint the same day. She said she waited until recently for authorities to take action, but when that did not happen, she approached the media.

The Union home ministry has suspended Kumar on charges of sexually harassing and stalking the woman.

“Immigration assistant Vinod Kumar has been placed under suspension and a departmental inquiry has been ordered against him,” said a home ministry spokesperson.

According to home ministry officials, the complainant has also been asked to lodge an FIR against the accused.

NCW condemns incident

The National Commission for Women (NCW) chief condemned the incident and apologised on behalf of Indian government.

"First I would like to apologise (to her) on behalf of Indian government, though I am just a part of it, a small cog in the very big wheel. But the entire incident which has happened is shameful and the officer should be suspended," NCW chairperson Lalitha Kumaramangalam said.

"How could he ask such questions when there is a format in place. This immigration officer must be taken to task. He should be suspended," she added.

The Commission also took suo motu cognizance of the matter and Kumaramangalam said she would write to revenue officials in Bengaluru and the immigration authorities recommending action against the officer.

Courtesy: The Hindustan Times
In boost to East Asia policy, Modi to tour China, Mongolia, S Korea
[Editor: Narendra Modi's world tour on Poor Tax Payers' money continues. However, nothing much on the ground is happening, except tall talks and empty rhetorics. The Narendra Modi government is infact running most of policies of the UPA government; many of which they opposed when the BJP was in opposition]
Mar 28, 2015: After his foray into the US, Australia, Europe and Indian Ocean countries, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his sights on the strategically-important East Asia region, dominated by China, which is also a geopolitical rival to India.

Modi will undertake a three-nation tour of China, Mongolia and South Korea from May 14 to 19. According to officials, the visit is aimed at giving a boost to the East Asia policy, aligning it with Make in India initiatives and bringing momentum to the country’s foreign policy in the strategically significant region.

In Beijing, where Modi is set to arrive to a rousing welcome, the focus will be on boundary issues. Both countries have an unsettled boundary of 3,488 km that often acts as an irritant to the ties.

The thrust will be on resolving the boundary question at an early date, rather than sticking to the familiar template of maintaining peace and tranquility along the border as the sole task, officials told HT.

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which is seen as a counter to the US, Japan dominated Asian Development Bank, is likely to announce funding for infrastructure projects in India during the visit of PM Modi. He had played a leading role in India becoming a founding member of the bank.

“The bank will bring investment into the region while maintaining supplementary relationships with existing multilateral development banks,” said an official.

His visit to South Korea has a definite Make in India angle to it. India is keen on getting investment and going for joint manufacturing in areas where South Korea has a technological edge. 

In the manufacturing sector, South Korean companies including Samsung, LG and Hyundai that have strong presence in India. “Infrastructure is another area, where South Korea is keen to invest,” said a source.

Mongolia and India are keen to move forward on the MoU for Uranium supply that the two countries had entered in 2009. Mongolia is keen on Indian helping the country in cyber security. Help in border patrolling is another area where the two countries will be stepping up the ties.

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Fixed cost recovery can be a mirage for power sector coal block winners 
[Editor: I have told this long back, through my numerous Facebook posts, that if the government of any country loots the power companies, in the name of auction, then the consequences would be too hard. This is a natural fall-out of wrong-governance, by Narendra Modi & Co. Anway, now I want to know the views of those in the media who were tom-toming about the low cost of power] 
TUE, MAR 24 2015: Aggressive bids by power generation firms for coal blocks have got investors worried. Rating agency Crisil Ltd’s calculations show that for coal block winners who had bid the highest and have a combined capacity of 10,000 megawatts (MW), there will be cost under-recovery totalling Rs.1,350 crore in the next fiscal year. Variable cost under-recovery is estimated at around 65 paise per unit. The under-recoveries of some power companies are estimated to be even higher. 

For Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd, it is pegged at 97 paise per kilowatt hour (kWh) and for Essar Power, which won Tokisud North coal block, it is likely to be more than Rs.1 per kWh. The impact varies depending on power purchasing agreements (PPAs). 

Companies which are yet to tie up their capacities will be on a better footing simply because their fuel security improves and they stand a chance of negotiating the contracts on beneficial terms.

“We believe this (coal mine win) is positive for GMR only because it currently does not have a PPA for the project and it has the flexibility to load it up on to the fixed cost while participating in the case 1 bids under section 63,” an Antique Stock Broking Ltd note said. 

Section 63 determines tariff through bidding process. But that is easier said than done. As widely feared, if the government caps the fixed cost and does not allow cost escalation to go through, then the companies will have a tough time recovering them. Another factor is competition. 

The weak financial condition of state electricity boards, the biggest buyers of electricity in India, means they are not keen on signing many PPAs. With ample idle capacities, higher competition will limit tariffs, weighing on cost recovery. 

“As per our estimates, 22-25GW (gigawatts) of power projects—both operational and expected to be commissioned by 2016-17—are untied and will compete for new PPAs. State discoms, however, have signed just about 8.5GW of long-term PPAs in the last 3 years because of stretched financials, large capacity of existing PPAs, and sluggish power demand. 

This will restrict any sharp increase in fixed tariffs,” Rahul Prithiani, director, Crisil Research said in a statement. One GW equals 1000MW. Not surprisingly, investors have been circumspect. 

The S&P BSE Power index which has been trailing the broader markets for a year before the coal block auctions continues to underperform the benchmark index (S&P BSE 500). CESC Ltd has lost 14% from the pre-auction levels. While Jaiprakash Power Ventures losses are insignificant at 1.6%, GMR Infrastructure Ltd is down 17% from 13 February. 

The writer doesn’t own shares in the above-mentioned companies.

Courtesy: Live Mint

Monday, March 23, 2015

Karuturi Global Ltd today touched Rs.1.99 in the BSE before closing at Rs.1.83. Accumlate the scrip as much as possible, some good news regarding its overseas ventures is coming within a short time. Sai Ramakrishna Karuturi, India's "King of Roses", made his fortune farming roses in East Africa for European markets. Now he's ploughing those profits into his next big African project: food production. Since 1996, Karuturi’s core business has been floriculture, producing 580 million roses per year from 289 hectares of land the company leases in Kenya (154 hectares), Ethiopia (125 hectares) and India (10 hectares). In 2012, the group commanded no less than 9% of the cut rose market in Europe. Since the 2007/2008 global food crisis, Karuturi began expanding from floriculture into food production. Its plan is to set up farming operations on over one million hectares, mainly in eastern and southern Africa, to produce primarily maize, rice, sugarcane and palm oil for international markets.
The hub of this expansion is Ethiopia. In 2009, Karuturi acquired 10,700 ha of land in Bako for maize, rice and vegetable production. In 2010, it got an additional 300,000 hectares for expansion in Gambela. The company aims to farm a total of 750,000 ha in Ethiopia. This land is leased from the government at bargain prices, but local communities consider it their own. As a result, many conflicts have emerged around compensation, displacement and the relocation of villagers and herders who suddenly found themselves fenced off of their lands by the Indian company. The company is taking steps to settle these disputes at the earliest. The stock would invariably cross Rs.5, in the next 3-6 months time. Have patience and keep buying all dips. 
Some days back, I suggested through this blog, not to buy the shares of Jenson and Nicholson Ltd, at around 8-9, when a couple of operators were trying to push the scrip for distribution. Many heard my call and did not buy, congratulations to them as the scrip today closed at Rs.5.88, down 9.26% in the BSE. It will slowly move below Rs.5, in the coming days.
Genera Agri Crop Ltd (Rs.4.43) today hit the buyer freeze in the late market trade. The scrip will reach Rs.7-8, in the coming days. I myself have good position in the shares of the company. 
Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd today touched Rs.10.70 before closing at Rs.10.47, due to late selling in the small and mid cap counters. The Parliament passed the Coal Mines (Special Provisions) Bill and Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Bill which is positive for all the thermal power companies. The stock would invariably touch Rs.18-20, in the next 6 months. 
The correction in Rasoya Proteins Ltd (Re.0.73) is probably over. The scrip is unnecessarily falling in this bull market due to manufactured fear of GDR selling. Buy the scrip and hold for a couple of months, to get superb returns. 
Today Nifty (spot) closed at 8,550.90 down by 20 points. However, the fact that it is above 8500 gives much strength to the bulls. The Premium Members today were asked to use the dips in Nifty to build up long positions. However, the markets might turn volatile ahead of expiry of derivative contracts on Thursday. Meanwhile, Ridham Desai, said in an interview with Business Standard, on March 23, 2015: 
Valuations are not stretched because earnings are depressed. The key call is whether earnings are going to normalise. We recently surveyed our global investors and 76 per cent of them are overweight on India. The consensus is bullish and that, at times, acts as an overhang. Valuations are no longer at a level where it is the only criteria to invest. This is not December 2007, when valuations were at 30 times earnings.
The world has been grappling with an ageing population. It is dealing with debt levels never seen in the past.  Global debt is approaching three times of gross domestic product, which is staggering. There is not much appetite left to borrow from future earnings, which is creating deflationary pressures. The world has these problems but India does not have any of these. It still looks like one of the brightest stars in the universe. 
Beacons of "Achche Din"...??!! 
~~- By Vivek Kaul (excerpts)
Crisil Research points in a research note titled A Rs.1.4 trillion consumption kicker looms: "Sales growth in air-conditioners, washing machines and refrigerators nosedived from 18-20% in fiscal 2010 to 3-4% in fiscal 2014. Passenger vehicle sales plummeted to an average 6.2% in fiscals 2013 and 2014 compared with 29% in fiscal 2011." This clearly tells us that many people postponed the purchasing things that were not essential for everyday living. 

Things have changed in the recent past. The consumer price inflation for the month of February 2015 stood at 5.4%, well below the double digit levels. Food prices remained flat during the course of the month in comparison to February 2014. 

Crisil Research expects lower food inflation and lower oil prices to do the trick in pushing up private consumer expenditure growth: 

"The fall in food inflation and lower fuel prices will together yield additional 'savings' (or increase in spending power) of Rs.1.4 trillion in fiscal 2016 compared with nearly Rs.509 billion in fiscal 2015. 

Savings on fuel expenses alone will be Rs 300 billion, while on food it will be more than thrice that at Rs 1.1 trillion." 

Another factor that should help is a fall in inflation expectations (or the expectations that consumers have of what future inflation is likely to be). In the inflation expectations survey released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for September 2014, the inflation expectations over the next three months and one year were at 14.6 percent and 16 percent. 

In the latest inflation expectations survey for December 2014, these numbers crashed to 8.3% and 8.9%. A belief among consumers that prices will not continue to go up at the same rate as they have in the past, is very important to get consumption going again. Hence, a fall in inflation expectations should help. 

What will also get consumption going is the fact that increasing disposable income will help people to borrow more, given that their capacity to repay will go up. As Crisil Research points out: "The household sector in India is under-leveraged, with the household debt (from bank and formal non-bank sources) to GDP ratio at just 12% compared with close to 80% in United States. Household debt from commercial banks and non-banking financial companies was nearly Rs 14 trillion as of March 31, 2014, including housing and educational loans. This is just 22% of household consumption. Moreover, most of the debt was accumulated in the last decade and more than 60% was taken to buy houses. If we exclude these housing loans - which do not form a part of consumption -- then the ratio falls to 8%." What this means that there is a huge scope for the Indian consumer to borrow and spend. 

All these reasons will essentially ensure that in the financial year starting next month, the Indian consumer will make a comeback with his shopping bags. Crisil Research expects private consumption to grow by 7.8% in 2015-2016. "An increase in purchasing power led by declining inflation and improvement in incomes will ensure a gradual but steady pick-up in consumption demand next fiscal. At the sectoral level, we expect passenger vehicles sales to grow by 9-11% in fiscal 2016, up from 3-5% growth in fiscal 2015. Similarly, household appliances sales are forecast higher - television sales at about 9% compared to a 0.3% decline in fiscal 2015, air conditioners at 15% compared to 9%, and refrigerator at 10% compared to 5%." 

What can spoil this upcoming party for the consumer? 

The recent unseasonal rains in the Northern states will push food prices up in the coming months. As economists Taimur Baig and Kaushik Das of Deutsche Bank Research point out in a recent research note: "Disinflation in food prices have ended and it is more likely than not to expect higher food prices from March onward, especially given the recent unseasonal rainfall, which may have impacted some crops." 

Despite this negative, it looks like acche din for the Indian consumer are about to start.
Jewellery companies take much interest in e-commerce platform
Indian e-commerce business is expected to touch around $22 billion within 3 years
Mar 20 2015: There is a growing interest amongst jewellery companies to include e-commerce into their retail reach, reports say. The Indian e-commerce business is expected to touch around $22 billion in three years, and stand at about $6 billion in the current year, as per research and analyst companies, reports say.

Companies are considering being part of this growth, with some already retailing online through e-commerce ventures like Amazon, Flipkart, eBay, or the India ventures like and Caratlane.

Recently PC Jeweller had tied-up with Blue Nile, while Tara Jewels had begun selling online through, reports add. Jewellery company Gitanjali Gems envisions e-commerce to occupy around 20 percent of its sales in the coming three to four years, growing from the current 1 percent, reports say. Industrialists Ratan Tata had invested in online jewellery portal Bluestone.

Jewellery companies are considering online portals which are already selling jewellery, apart from promoting their own product portfolio. The quotient of trust is key in the jewellery sector, which online retailers are conscious about and are addressing this with free home delivery and trials at home, reports say.

The online platform serves the advantage of anytime, anywhere shopping for consumers, leveraging the scope of markets a jewellery company can tap at a point. The online medium also offers comparisons in designs and prices, for the consumer, reports add.

Courtesy: Diamond World

Granules India Ltd recommended on April 25, 2013 at Rs.112.25 made a new 52-week high of Rs.1,017.10 on 17th March, 2015. The company came out with good set of results for Q3FY15. The 9MFY15, EPS of the company stands at Rs.35.85. 

The investors are therefore suggested to book at least 85% of the profits and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.840. One can invest the fund in either Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd (Rs.10.55) or Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.45.90) for some superb gains in the next couple of  years. 

Sunday, March 22, 2015

JP Power great value buy, says Prakash Diwan 
CMP: Rs.10.55
Prakash Diwan of Altamount Capital Management is of the view that Jaiprakash Power is a great value buy at the current level.

Prakash Diwan of Altamount Capital Management told CNBC-TV18, "Keeping the steam on the energy side alive, Jaiprakash Power  is undergoing a lot of repair work. It has continuously had some over leverage issues. Two of the largest lenders for them, IDBI Bank  and ICICI Bank  have agreed to lend them significant quantity, Rs.5000 crore plus each and that is under the 5:25 scheme which was introduced for beleaguered power companies.

The interesting part was JP Power has moved down from the Rs.28-29 all the way close to Rs.10-12, it is under-owned completely today, everybody has kind of exited with despondency saying nothing is going to happen till they divest or do something about it. 

However, the repair work is finally going to help because it is timed well and the interest rate cycle coinciding with it." "If we look at the likes of a Ashok Leyland  or some of the infrastructure companies which have benefitted from any repair in terms of leverage, JP Power is also one of them. 

The only reason why it was not doing well was overleveraging. So, that out of the way could mean it could get re-rated but it will take time. It is a great value buy at this point in time. You need to be patient for just two quarters and it could start throwing up some very good numbers," he said.
According to  Knight Frank, in 2014, Delhi, Mumbai, National Capital Region (or NCR), and Bangalore accounted for 70% of the new housing supply. Residential sales have declined 30% Y/Y across seven major cities in India. 

There is a huge pile up of unsold housing inventory. Mumbai and NCR region will take between twelve and fourteen quarters to sell the existing inventory. Now twelve quarters means 3-years, isn't it?

High prices, sticky interest rates, and cautious buyer sentiment are cited to be the key reasons for poor sales. In spite of this, real estate developers have increased prices. 

Mumbai saw price hike of 10%, while the NCR witnessed a hike of 3% in 2014. High prices will keep home buyers away. The inventory pileup will put stress on the Indian banking system.

Therefore, is the real estate market in Mumbai (Bombay) heading for a CRASH? The Indian government should learn from China's housing bubble that started deflating from 2011. 

Housing prices in China started falling as the middle class were unable to afford homes in large cities. China has also given rise to many ghost cities, where many residential apartments are unoccupied. Home prices fell in 64 cities in January, 2015, compared to 65 cities in December. 

The housing sector contributes 15% to China's economy and is primarily responsible for the slowdown in the economy. In 2014, the Chinese economy grew at 7.4%, it slowest pace in 24 years.
India overtakes US as 3rd biggest steel producer
[Editor: Most of the credit goes to the India Inc, for achieving this feat without much help from the current NDA government, after it assumed office in Delhi in 2014. The NDA government must priorities their work schedule, instead of moving haphazardly, like they are doing now. If the steel and gems & Jewelry sectors require government patronage, then it should be done immediately, without fail] 
Photo: Your Article Library
New Delhi, Sunday, March 22, 2015: India has overtaken the US to become the third-largest steel producer in the world with a production of 14.56 million tonnes (MT) in first two months of the year.

India has been the fourth-largest steel producer for the past five years, behind China, Japan and the US.

Data compiled by World Steel Association (WSA) showed that the country's production growth was the highest during the January-February period at 7.6 per cent as compared to the global average of just 0.6 per cent at 127.6 MT.

Production in China, which accounts for nearly half of the global steel production, fell during the period by 1.5 per cent. It produced 65 MT steel during the period.

Japan, the second-largest producer, reported a total output of 17.4 MT, but production in the country fell 2.2 per cent.

The US, which was the third-largest steel producer since 2010, produced 13.52 MT during the January-February period, giving away its position to India.

On a yearly basis, India may retain the position given the fact that a lot of capacities are set to be commissioned during the year from its present installed manufacturing capacity of a little over 100 MT.

Production in the US, on the other hand, is heading for a stagnation with no signs of growth in the immediate future.

Output in the US has been hovering between 86 MT and 88 MT for the last four years.

The gap of production between the two countries was just 5 MT last year.

Interestingly, the US snatched the third slot from India in 2009. 

Courtesy: Zee News
Make in India push: Is it a flight of fancy?
For the first 11 months of this financial year, exports of $284 billion suggest India will fall short of last year’s numbers, let alone its target of $340 billion, rues Rahul Jacob
Narendra Modi at the launch  of the Make in India Mission
at Vigyan Bhavan in New Delhi on Thursday.
Photograph: Manvender Vashist/PTI
March 19, 2015: government’s ‘Make in India’ push seem more like a flight of fancy.

Merchandise exports from India declined by 11 per cent in January and 15 per cent in February.

For the first 11 months of this financial year, exports of $284 billion suggest India will fall short of last year’s numbers, let alone its target of $340 billion.

Contrast this malaise with China’s double-digit increases in exports for January and February.

UBS clubbed the two months together to smooth out the anomalies of the Chinese Lunar new year holidays and found exports increased 13 per cent.

The collapse in imports (down 27 per cent) suggests Chinese manufacturers are redoubling their efforts to export.

Exports to the ASEAN were up 38 per cent over the first two months, to the US by 21 per cent.

Even exports to the EU increased by 13 percent.

The Chinese labour force may be growing older and more expensive but companies there are not giving up their huge share of the most labour-intensive sectors. 

“Exports of most labour-intensive products accelerated visibly in the first two months of 2015 from Q4 2014, including those of garments, footwear, textiles, suitcases furniture and toys,” writes Donna Kwok, an economist with UBS.

The southern province of Guangdong, which is China’s exporting powerhouse, suffered a 2.5 per cent decrease in the first nine months of 2014 but still exported $457 bn over that period.

In nine months, a single province in China exported one and a half times what India is likely to export in an entire year.

The myth that India -- ‘the youngest nation in the world’-- is poised to take sizeable export market share from China as its working population ages is unravelling.

For years, this has been a staple from the podiums of grand conclaves of sundry boosterish Indian media houses.

India’s demographic dividend, which is underpinned by the fantasy that we will convert farmers whose productivity is low even by the standards of parts of Africa and much of Asia into millions of hyper-efficient manufacturing workers, is invariably part of glib presentations of loquacious Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party ministers.

Fifteen years into the 21st century, it is proving to be more fable than fact.

Yes, China’s one child policy of the past 30 years means that the increase in China’s working age population in this decade of 23 million represents a sharp fall from the 82 million between 2001 and 2010.

But, the continued strong export numbers from China suggest that the productivity of Chinese workers has risen -- McKinsey estimates by 11 per cent a year between 2007 and 2012, according to The Economist.

In addition, the ecosystems of suppliers -- computer parts firms centred around Chongqing, for instance, or mobile phone parts suppliers in southern China who are in turn tied to screen suppliers in Japan and Taiwan -- make it foolhardy to uproot production just because labour costs have risen annually by double-digit levels since 2010.

Then there are the advantages of China’s world class ports and six-lane highways which make it seem like a country with First World infrastructure and developing world labour costs, as Arthur Kroeber of Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing, puts it.

The iPhone 6 is made of countless parts sourced from firms in China (which boasts 349 suppliers) Japan (139) and Taiwan (42) to name a few, according to the product review website

The products range from screens for the phone from Japan Display and Taiwan’s Innolux, touch ID sensor and chips from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation and front and rear cameras from Sony.

The projected revenue of Taiwanese suppliers for the iPhone 6 is $27 bn.

Given this complex supply chain centred in North Asia, it’s highly unlikely Apple might one day elect to move some of this production to India.

Two world-beating companies that make labour intensive products are headed by Indians. Neither uses India as a significant export base.

The average suitcase Samsonite CEO Ramesh Tainwala says, has 700 components; it’s no surprise most of its production is spread across China.

Samsonite recently opened a plant in Hungary to be closer to its European customers.  Ranjan Mahtani of Epic Group, the largest supplier of cotton (non-denim) trousers to the US, has about 25,000 mostly female employees in Bangladesh and none in India.

While working in southern China between 2010 and 2013, I was frequently asked by news editors to track down where the low-cost manufacturing from China was moving.

In many cases, manufacturers just across the border from Hong Kong in Guangdong preferred to introduce robotics rather than shift production overseas.

At Maisto in Dongguan, which makes intricate toy cars for adults, I saw a machine that looked like a rotating silver-coloured, metallic Christmas tree simultaneously spray-painting the chassis of miniature cars.

The work had once required 60 workers; the futuristic machine needed just two. Foxconn, which the hundreds of thousands of workers who assemble iPhones in China, announced a couple of years ago that it plans to have as many robots as workers.

Most of the companies who moved production overseas moved it to southeast Asia, which this year became a large free trade area, or to provinces in China away from its booming coasts with lower labour costs.

On Republic Day, the gargantuan metal lion that is Make in India’s mascot slowly made its way from the parade to another site.

It was hard not to notice it had begun to rust.

Before we go down the road of quasi-protectionist industrial policy, better to retire, even ban, the delusional idea that the world’s corporations are eager to use India as an export base to replace China.


Saturday, March 21, 2015

Stock market wrap: Sensex waits as US Federal Reserve delays rate hikes
March 20, 2015: The week ended March 20 saw some volatility in the markets. After opening at 28,546 on March 16, the BSE Sensex closed at 28,293 on March 20, registering a loss of 250 points.

During the week, the market gained 200 points and lost 300 points on the same day, exhibiting some amount of nervousness. The major announcements for the week that impacted the market was the announcement of the WPI. Considering that disappointing consumer inflation numbers dampened the market sentiment last week, all eyes were set on wholesale price index data for the month of February 2015.

According to official figures, the wholesale inflation dipped to (-) 2.06% in February as prices of food articles, manufactured items and fuel products fell during the month. This was the fourth month in a row that WPI-based inflation remained in negative, which brought some respite to the market. According to a report by Dun & Bradstreet, the headline WPI inflation is expected to be in the range of (-) 0.2% to (-) 1.8% during March, driven by weak demand conditions and lower commodity prices. This is likely to keep a check on the downward interest rate direction.

The next big factor to impact the market was the US Fed meeting to decide the direction of interest rates. The US central bank said that it is not in a hurry to increase interest rates as long as inflation was tame and economic growth moderate. Although the markets initially reacted positively to the news, some amount of profit-booking was witnessed on March 19.

"Increase in interest rates in US can have an impact on the Indian currency as well as stock markets as funds may flow out of India or additional funds may not come into India. Going ahead, fiscal reforms by the government will be the triggers for the markets to sustain and move higher from current levels." says Dipen Shah, head, private client group research, Kotak Securities. The Fed has removed the word "patient" from its statement, which markets believe is a signal that rate hikes can come in near future.

"India has come back to the important domestic factors like development at budget session and downgrading of Q4FY15 expectation. Market will look at the immediate stanza of post-budget reforms. The Land & Coal Bill is an important part of the same," says Vinod Nair, head, fundamental research, Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services. Among other developments, the Minerals and Mining Bill was passed by the government, which is a jumpstart.

The week's gainers among the Group A stocks were Rasoya Proteins (+33%), Rajesh Exports (+21%), Just Dial (+21%), Page Industries (+14%), Gujrat State Petronet (+12%), DLF +(11%). The major losers for the week amongst the Group A stocks were PMC FIncorp (-19%), Shree Renuka Sugars (-17%), HDIL (-14%), Jindal Steel and Power (-14%). Alok Industries and Persistent Systems lost 13% each.

Among sectoral indices, the BSE Mid-Cap index ended 200 points down for the week, the Small Cap index lost 370 points, BSE Bankex was down 200 points for the week and the Auto index shed 300 points during the same period. On the other hand, the defensive Healthcare Index was up 200 points and the IT Index rose 70 points.

FII activity for the week has been rather subdued, with a major sale of Rs 900 crore pursuant to the US Fed meeting on March 19.

Courtesy: Business Today