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Friday, October 31, 2014

India world’s 4th largest steel maker at 62.41 MT in Jan-Sept
October 26, 2014: With 62.41 million tonnes output, India remains the world’s fourth largest steel producer in the first nine months of the current year, preceded by China, Japan and the US.

World Steel Association (WSA) data showed India’s steel production grew by 1.8 per cent, the second highest among the top four steel producing nations, during the January-September period from 61.27 MT in the same period last year.

India has been the world’s fourth largest steel maker for the last four years. The order is likely to remain unchanged in current year too, an industry expert said.

During the first nine months, China produced 618 MT steel which is a little more than half of world’s total production at 1,231 MT.

China logged 2.3 per cent growth during the period. But its steel production remained static in September, as per data revealed by WSA, at 67.5 MT when compared with the same month last year.

Japan remained the remote second with 83.1 MT production during the nine-month period clocking just 0.8 per cent growth over 82.4 MT production in the same period last year.

The US stood at the third spot with 66.33 MT production compared to 65.3 MT output during the January—September period of the last year.

Though the growth in world’s third largest producing nation grew by 1.6 per cent during the period, in September steel production in the US fell by 0.1 per cent over the same month last year.

Russia and South Korea vie for the fifth slot with 53.4 MT and 53.2 MT output in the first nine months of the current year.

The balance is, however, tilted towards the Asian nation as it logged 9.4 per cent growth, highest among major steel producing nations, in steel production during the period compared to Russia’s 3.1 per cent.

Courtesy: The Hindu

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Shake-out of ferrochrome industry overdue
[EditorThe demand for ferro alloys is driven by steel production, which in turn depends on growth from the infrastructure, housing, automobile and consumer durable industries. The ferro-alloy industry is at cross-roads now, with the new NDA government coming in New Delhi. I have already recommended Rohit Ferro Tech Ltd (Rs.9.63) pivoted on the source based information that the company's Captive Power Plant of 67.5 MW and 33 MVA Furnace are about to start operation within a very short time]
October 27, 2014: India's ferroalloys producers have built capacity of 5.25 million tonnes (mt), including 3.2 mt of manganese alloys and 1.75 mt of chrome alloys, anticipating much faster growth in domestic production of carbon, alloys and stainless steel than is actually the case. As a result, every segment of the ferroalloys sector has considerable idle capacity. The sector's attempt to beat overcapacity blues through exports has seen limited success in the face of oversupply of ferroalloys in the global market, thanks largely to Chinese dumping.

Ferromanganese is used for desulphurisation and strengthening of carbon steel, while ferrochrome imparts non-corrosive properties to stainless steel.

Bansidhar Panda, chairman of Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys (IMFA), says "the chromium sector is at a crossroads, buffeted by rising costs, stagnant prices" and China's overbearing presence in both ferrochrome and stainless steel sectors. Overcapacity is hitting non-integrated producers here, without ownership of chrome and manganese ore mines and captive power plants, the hardest. Such units in the chromium segment are never sure of securing the required supplies of chromite from the Odisha government-owned Odisha Mining Corporation. Grid power is expensive, as it is highly irregular. For ferroalloys plants without captive power, the electricity bill alone accounts for about 35 per cent of the overall production cost. Therefore, it isn't surprising that standalone units, which have to buy chromite and electricity, are in dire straits. Only a few, with toll smelting assignments from mines-owning ferroalloys groups, are able to keep their heads above water.

A shake-out of the sector is overdue. Integrated manufacturers still left with appetite for expansion will have a chance to buy furnaces and other equipment of closed units and those on the verge of closure at bargain prices. Ferroalloys Corporation (FACOR) says "acquisition" will remain one of the options for capacity growth.

But what is leading Tata Steel to build large new ferrochrome capacity when the sector is reeling under overcapacity in every ferroalloys segment? According to Odisha government officials, Tata Steel's new ferrochrome facilities are to be housed at Gopalpur, where it has large tracts of land. In 1995, the company acquired the land to build a steel plant, which didn't happen because of water scarcity and local agitation. Not only will Tata Steel make ferrochrome and roll steel at Gopalpur, it is also to play the role of an anchor in securing investments from southeast and Far Eastern countries in a variety of sectors. That the company has flagged off investment in two industries will inspire others in the multi-product Gopalpur special economic zone (SEZ). The presence of a soon-to-become all-season port nearby will underpin the SEZ's success. The capacity of the deep-sea port, capable of handling of up to 125,000-tonne vessels, is being raised from 3.5 mt to five to mt.

Being the most ideally integrated ferroalloys producer in India, with access to rich deposits of all required minerals, Tata Steel is in a vantage position to risk investment in new ferrochrome capacity. Not only does the group's large production of steel provide a major outlet for in-house production of ferrochrome and ferromanganese, it has "maximised profits by judicious allocation of ferroalloys products to profitable geographies". An important tenet of Tata Steel's ferroalloys marketing strategy is entering into long-term supply contracts with foreign steelmakers. The signing of a long-term contract with Nucor of the US for sale of ferrochrome will be followed by the attempts to get buyers in Japan and South Korea to increase sales tonnage.

Some other producers, including IMFA and FACOR, have also taken recourse to this route for long-term offtake assurance in the case of ferrochrome in a global market awash with Chinese material. Going a step further, IMFA is running a ferrochrome joint venture in Odisha, in partnership with Posco of South Korea. In all such supply arrangements, ferrochrome prices are revised periodically. Sustainability of the domestic sector, however, demands internal use of ferrochrome grows at a rapid pace. Much will depend on how quickly Indian per capita consumption of stainless steel, now 2.1 kg, approaches the world average of five kg. Continuing large imports from China are standing in the way of local stainless steel producers making better use of their capacity.

Steel exports soar as domestic demand weakens
Photo: The Telgraph
30 October, 2014: Steel exports soared 39.3 percent year-on-year to 65.34 million metric tons in the first nine months of 2014 as domestic demand remained soft and prices fell, the China Iron and Steel Association announced on Wednesday.

In comparison, China imported 11 million tons of steel, up 5 percent year-on-year.

"The Chinese government has never encouraged domestic steel companies to export since the industry is a large energy consumer and its priority is to meet domestic demand," said Zhang Changfu, vice-chairman of the association.

China exported 8.52 million tons of steel products in September, up 9.8 percent month-on-month.

For the first three quarters, the average steel export price was $783 a ton, down $74 a ton compared with the same period of last year.

Exports are mostly going to Asian countries, which account for about 70 percent of the total. China also exports high-end steel products to the European, United States and African markets.

The CISA estimates that China's full-year steel exports will surpass 80 million tons, accounting for about 10 percent of the national output. In previous years, exports only accounted for about 2 percent to 3 percent of total output.

Large volumes of low-end steel exports "will generate more trade friction, and will affect future exports. Thus, the authorities will adjust export policies accordingly," Zhang said.

Faced with a domestic economic slowdown and price gaps between local and foreign steel markets, however, Chinese steelmakers are increasingly turning to exports to raise their profits.

Wang Yingsheng, director of the market research department at the CISA, said that large steel mills such as Hebei Iron and Steel Group, Shagang Group and Baosteel Group, all have growing exports.

"China is no longer exporting just crude steel. Instead, Chinese companies' high-end steel products for the vehicle and shipbuilding industries are sold abroad at competitive prices," Wang said.

For the first nine months of this year, medium-sized and large steel producers reported an aggregate profit of 19.28 billion yuan ($3.15 billion), up 71.3 percent year-on-year.

However, Zhang said the profitability of steel companies is generally still low. The improvement in profit mostly reflected lower raw material costs.

Oversupply and slowing demand have driven down international iron ore prices.

China imported 699 million tons of iron ore in the first nine months, up 16.5 percent. Last month alone, iron ore imports rose 13.1 percent month-on-month to 84.69 million tons.

The import price averaged $108.09 a ton for the first three quarters, down $21.66 a ton year-on-year, according to the association. Iron ore prices dropped below $80 a ton in late September.

As supplies of cheaper imported ore have increased, domestic iron ore mines have had to cut production or shutter capacity.

In September, domestic iron ore output fell 0.36 percent year-on-year to 137 million tons. For the first three quarters, output was 1.12 billion tons, up 7.24 percent.

Chen Kexin, chief analyst of the Beijing-based Lange Steel Information Research Center, estimated that China will import more than 900 million tons of iron ore this year with annual growth of 15 percent.

"In 2015, China is expected to import more than 1 billion tons of iron ore to meet domestic needs," Chen said.

"If the iron ore import price drops below $70 a ton, it is possible that imports next year may reach 1.2 billion tons."

Increasing iron ore imports will lead to closures of many domestic iron ore mines, he said.

Courtesy: Ecns.cn
  

MARKET MANTRA
Today my recommended Suzlon Energy Ltd at around Rs.11.99-12.10 touched Rs.13.60, intra-day. However, profit booking was suggested in the counter at around Rs.13.25-13.20, for the Paid Group Members and to those who trade through my brokerage terminal. 
Buy Rohit Ferro Tech Ltd at the CMP of Rs.9.65.9.70, for a target of Rs.12-13, in the short term. The short term traders can book some profits in Suzlon Energy Ltd at Rs.13.25 and enter Rohit Ferro. Rohit Ferro-Tech Limited was incorporated on 7th April, 2000 and is amongst India’s largest Ferro-Chrome manufacturing Company. The Company is engaged in manufacturing of chromium and manganese-based ferro alloys, such as High Carbon Ferro Chrome (H.C.FeCr), Silico Manganese (SiMn) and Ferro Manganese (FeMn) through Submerged Arc Furnace (SAF) route. The Company has three manufacturing facilities located at Bishnupur in West Bengal, Jajpur in Orissa and Haldia in West Bengal. The Company has commenced its commercial production of High Carbon Ferro Chrome (H.C.FeCr.) in October, 2003. Meanwhile, in a boost to cash-starved real estate industry, the NDA government yesterday relaxed rules for FDI in the construction sector by reducing minimum built-up area as well as capital requirement and easing the exit norms. This is expected to increase the demand for steel and other building materials in the coming days. The stock is near its 52-week low price of Rs.7.02 and is one of the safest bets. 
Tata Steel Ltd which was recommended around Rs.450, some days back, is near the first target of Rs.480, as intra-day it touched Rs.474.45 and is  now trading at Rs.471.
Resurgere Mines and Minerals Ltd today hit the buyer freeze at Rs.1.78 and is  now trading at the Upper Circuits. The company is carrying mining operations in the SOAPSTONE MINES in Rajasthan. It is also negotiating with the lease  holders to start mining in of its mines. 
Allied Digital Services Ltd hit the buyer freeze in the opening trade. The company is expected to come up with better numbers from Q3FY15. 
My recommended Country  Club India Ltd made a new 52-week high today as it touched Rs.18.44, intra-day. 

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
As expected, Sulon Energy Ltd hit the buyer freeze today at around Rs.12.70. The stock was yesterday recommended to the PAID GROUPS at around Rs.11.99-12.10. The  company has a massive order book of around Rs.43, 000 Cr and now less problem, for meeting its working capital needs. Meanwhile, the Hindu, on 27 October, 2014 writes: "The restoration of benefits such as accelerated depreciation (AD) and generation-based incentive (GBI) is expected to invigorate the domestic wind power sector.  Crisil Research estimates that 10,000 MW of capacity will be added during 2015-18, entailing investments of Rs.65,000 crore compared with 7,000 MW over the previous three years.GBI and AD (which expired in March, 2012) enable a quantum improvement in the economics of power projects, so it is understandable why capacity additions will go up with their restoration. Crisil Research estimates suggest that projects availing of AD (80 per cent depreciation allowed in the first year of operations) are economically viable at only Rs.3.80 a unit. In comparison, States such as Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh offer preferential tariffs ranging from Rs.3.90 to Rs.5.90 a unit, which make wind power attractive for developers in these States. The salutary impact of these incentives on capacity additions has been seen in the past too. AD propelled capacity additions until it expired in 2011-12; the share of AD in total installed capacity (21,693 MW as on March, 2014) is estimated at 65-70 per cent. That is not all. In States such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, where industrial tariffs are high in the range of Rs.7 to Rs.7.50 a unit, wind power is an attractive option since generation costs are significantly lower, particularly in view of the restoration of AD". All these augurs well for Suzlon Energy Ltd. 
Pipavav Defence Ltd hit the buyer freeze in the opening trade at around Rs.45.20 before closing at Rs.44.30. There were media reports recently that the Indian government has cleared defence deals worth Rs.80,000 crores.  The scrip spurted on this news. 
Glodyne Tech Ltd hit another buyer freeze in the opening phase. The company came out with better set of numbers for Q1FY14, speaking sequentially. 
Nifty today closed above 8000, giving fresh ammunition to the BULLS. A weekly close above 8000 has resumed the uptrend once again, as the breakdown below 7800 proved to be short lived and false. The investors are suggested to go for the small and mid cap counters as November is approaching.

Monday, October 27, 2014

India’s Suzlon Energy Secures Orders For Wind Turbines Worth $200 Million
[Editor: There were earlier media reports that Indian government is planing to rapidly accelerate wind energy generation, adding an ambitious 10,000 MW every year, or five times the total new capacity that came up in the last fiscal. Wind energy, which had been overshadowed by solar projects in recent years, got a big boost in the current fiscal, as the government of India has restored key tax incentives that had helped India emerge as one of the top countries in the world in generating electricity from wind. The government feels that tax incentives coupled with conducive environment will rapidly accelerate wind energy. All these augurs well for the shares of Suzlon Energy Ltd (Rs.12.10)]
October 27th, 2014: The reintroduction of financial incentives for the Indian wind energy sector has led to a significant increase in the orders for wind turbines.

India’s leading wind turbine manufacturers, Suzlon Energy, has secured an order worth $200 million for supply of 150 MW wind energy equipment. The company, which has evolved into an integrated wind energy solutions provider, is likely to set up the wind farms and also bag orders for service and maintenance following commissioning.

The cumulative order has been placed by more than four companies. The large order signifies the customers’ renewed interest in the wind energy sector following reintroduction of tax incentives for wind project developers, the company noted in its press release.

Suzlon Energy is looking for a comeback as it is facing millions of dollars of debt. The company has taken several measures to raise credit from various equity-linked routes but any sustainable turnaround can only come through large orders.

The company may draw comfort from the upcoming reforms in the wind energy sector. The government is set to launch the National Wind Energy Mission, which is expected to boost annual capacity additions from the current 2.5 GW to 10 GW. Additionally, the government is expected to launch a comprehensive offshore wind energy policy.

Last month, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy announced the launch of a joint venture of public sector companies that will set up a 100 MW offshore wind energy project in Gujarat. Suzlon Energy has also announced that it will say up 300 MW offshore wind energy project in Gujarat. The company enjoys a technological edge over most of the Indian wind energy manufacturers, as it has access to high-capacity offshore wind turbines through its European subsidiary Senvion SE.

Courtesy: Cleantechnica
Fresh surge of wind power
Photo: The Economic Times
October 27, 2014: The restoration of benefits such as accelerated depreciation (AD) and generation-based incentive (GBI) is expected to invigorate the domestic wind power sector. Crisil Research estimates that 10,000 MW of capacity will be added during 2015-18, entailing investments of Rs.65,000 crore compared with 7,000 MW over the previous three years.

GBI and AD (which expired in March, 2012) enable a quantum improvement in the economics of power projects, so it is understandable why capacity additions will go up with their restoration. Crisil Research estimates suggest that projects availing of AD (80 per cent depreciation allowed in the first year of operations) are economically viable at only Rs.3.80 a unit. In comparison, States such as Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh offer preferential tariffs ranging from Rs.3.90 to Rs.5.90 a unit, which make wind power attractive for developers in these States.

The salutary impact of these incentives on capacity additions has been seen in the past too. AD propelled capacity additions until it expired in 2011-12; the share of AD in total installed capacity (21,693 MW as on March, 2014) is estimated at 65-70 per cent.

That is not all. In States such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, where industrial tariffs are high in the range of Rs.7 to Rs.7.50 a unit, wind power is an attractive option since generation costs are significantly lower, particularly in view of the restoration of AD.

Likewise, GBI (Rs.0.50 a unit for a period not less than four years and maximum of ten years) is also estimated to reduce tariff required to earn equity IRR of 16 per cent to about Rs.4.50-4.70 a unit from Rs.5 a unit, depending on the plant load factor (PLF).

AD and GBI are not the only incentives coming the way of wind power companies. The Central Government provides a ten-year tax holiday (under Section 80IA), funding through the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) at favourable interest rates (~100 basis points lower than bank finance), concessional custom duty and excise duty exemption on wind turbine components. The government also proposes to set up a National Wind Energy Mission to facilitate and promote capacity additions in the sector.

During 2015-18, capacity additions will be driven by Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh, which offer attractive preferential tariffs that are determined by the respective State electricity regulatory commissions based on capital costs and PLF. Moreover, the power distribution companies (discoms) in these States are relatively stronger financially, which ensures timely payments.

By contrast, capacity additions in Tamil Nadu are expected to decline due to significant evacuation issues and a poor track record of timely payments.

In the past, the sector was largely driven by the OEM (original equipment manufacturer) model. OEMs such as Suzlon, Gamesa, Vestas, Regen Powertech and Inox Wind provide end-to-end solutions, including wind and site studies, land procurement, installation of turbines and operation and maintenance services. The OEM model was prevalent as SMEs, which have limited experience in executing power projects, dominated capacity additions to reduce tax outgo by availing themselves of accelerated depreciation. But, over the last two years, we have witnessed a gradual shift in project execution due to the entry of IPPs (independent power producers).

However, in future, Crisil Research expects both models to co-exist. The OEM model will be driven by restoration of AD coupled with the fact that OEMs have acquired sites with good wind potential. The IPP route will be led by the focus of players such as Tata Power, China Light & Power and NTPC on wind power, particularly due to issues such as limited fuel availability, delay in clearances and the like in the conventional power space.

Key challenges
Even though the sector’s prospects appear to be bright, there are certain challenges ahead. Notable among these are lack of enforcement of renewable purchase obligation (RPO), the weak financial health of State discoms, and inadequate evacuation infrastructure.

Some States such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal have revised their RPO targets downwards in the past. Also, States such as Maharashtra, Haryana and Chhattisgarh have been allowed to carry forward their RPO obligations. The poor compliance of States is reflected in the sharp increase in unsold renewable energy certificates (REC) to 10.1 million as on September 30, 2014, from 3.7 million against the previous year. The REC is a mechanism available for States with lower renewable energy potential to meet their RPOs through purchase of these certificates on the power exchange. Clearly, if States reduce obligations or are unable to meet them, investments in the wind power market could be affected.

The poor financial health of State discoms too remains a major concern, as it hinders their ability to offtake wind power at nearly Rs.5 a unit. Some States also do not have sufficient transmission infrastructure to evacuate power within the State. Land availability, delays in land acquisition and obtaining clearances are difficult in States such as Karnataka and Maharashtra, which can also slow down project execution, leading to time and cost over-runs. Overcoming these challenges is important if the full potential of the sector is to be realised.

The author is Director, CRISIL Research.....

Courtesy: The Hindu
WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
The bulls took a breather today amid the news of the disclosure of names of the alleged BLACK MONEY HOLDERS in the Honourable Supreme Court of India. Also, the uncertainity regarding the formation of the goverenment in Maharashtra, took its toll on the markets. However, as long as the level of 8000-7980 is held the bulls can still hope for a continuation of this rally. The focus is now expected to shift towards the small and mid cap counters as the broader market is likely to trade in a range till the F&O expiry on this Thursday. The traders are therefore, suggested to buy the scrips which has a story to tell and hold for few days to get some good returns,  as NOVEMBER-EFFECT draws closer. 
Glodyne Technoserve Ltd today hit another buyer freeze in the opening trade at Rs.4.11. The company came out with a slightly better Q1FY15 results, speaking sequentially. 
Today, the shares of Suzlon Energy Ltd were recommended, as BUY to the PAID GROUP MEMBERS, around the price range of Rs.11.99-12.10. After recommendation, the scrip touched a high of Rs.12.20 intra-day. The stock seems to have given both price and volume break out today. The next target according to my analysis should be Rs.16.50-17. Meanwhile, there were media report, this month that Suzlon Energy is planning to set up 2,000MW wind energy projects in Madhya Pradesh. The company will also establish supporting manufacturing facilities in the state for this purpose. Very recently, Suzlon Energy Ltd also announced that it has bagged contracts for wind power projects having total capacity of 150 MW, estimated to be worth about Rs.1,200 crore. The orders have been received from various entities including Malpani Group, Rajasthan Gum Group, KRBL, Sterling Agro Group and an assortment of Small and Medium Enterprises. There are repeat orders from existing customers including Malpani Group, Rajasthan Gum Group, KRBL Group, and Sterling Agro Group. Suzlon Group is the world's fifth largest wind turbine maker and has installed generation capacity of over 24,700 MW. Suzlon Energy Ltd is planing to list its German subsidiary Senvion on the London Stock Exchange through an initial public offer which is likely to garner close to Rs.7,000 crore. At the end of March this year, Suzlon Group's order book was worth about $7.2 billion (~Rs.43, 000 crore). The company is currently working on its business revival strategy and plans to raise about Rs.1,000 crore from sale of non-core assets in the current financial year (2014-15). The company is coming up with September, quarter results on 31st October, 2014.
Resurgere Mines and Minerals Ltd today hit another buyer freeze at Rs.1,72, before closing at Rs.1.71 in the BSE. The company is hoping to get approval of one of its mines in Maharashtra, after the new government has taken over. 
Pipavav Defence Ltd today hit the upper circuits at Rs.43.05 on the news that the government of India on Saturday cleared defence projects worth Rs.80,000 crore. Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company, a beneficiary from defence project announcements has put in bids of Rs.30,000 crore for new projects, as they claim to be well poised to secure and execute large government contracts, says company Chairman Nikhil Gandhi in an interview with a private news channel. 
Premier Explosives Ltd recommended at Rs.30.90 on Thursday, April 10, 2008, made a lifetime high of Rs.246.35 today. Congratulations to all bought the share and is still holding.