A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Services Ltd: FY13 Highlights
CMP: Rs.11.45

A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Services Ltd is Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) Company and expanding into being an Infrastructure Company that is building businesses with annuity revenue streams in the areas of Clean and Green energy like Renewable Energy Generation etc.
 
The Company’s operations are geographically spread across India and conducted either directly through the Company or its direct and indirect subsidiaries. In the EPC business, its main area of operation is the Power Distribution segment, though it also provides services in the Power Transmission segment, to Power Generation companies and to other verticals such as Telecommunications Services and operation & maintenance for wire lines. In the Power Distribution segment, it helps build power lines to bring power to areas which lack electricity. The company also assists in reducing the Technical and Commercial losses. A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Services Ltd has successfully executed challenging projects in difficult terrains and in extreme weather conditions in the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Orissa, Kerala and Bihar.



Additionally, it is now building businesses that include the following: 

(i) generating power from renewable energy sources such as biomass and fuel derived from municipal solid waste (Renewable Energy Generation); 

(ii) providing municipal solid waste (MSW) management services which involve collection& transportation (C&T) of waste and its scientific processing and disposal (P&D) like recycling, manufacturing of organic compost and greenfuel such as Refused Derived Fuel (RDF) & subsequent disposal of remnants; and (iii) developing informationtechnology (IT) solutions for power utilities (Power IT Solutions).
 
Through its subsidiary companies, creating a cleaner climate is a mission of A2Z. In India, so far, the municipal solid waste management projects are being done ona piece-meal basis wherein C&T is done separately by different agencies and P&D is managed by the government through outsourcing model. 

Being one of the leading Indian Waste Management companies, it has set up the biggest, single location Integrated Resource Recovery Facility (IRRF) in Asia as well as setting up one of the first IRRF with ESCO focus. The Company has pioneered the concept of IRRF right from collection and transportation to processing and disposal by utilizing all items that have not remained useful in their present form any longer and renewable energy generationthereafter.
 
Through multiyear contracts, the MSW and Renewable Energy Generation businesses should provide stablerevenue streams in the years to come.

The company last month said that it has executed a Master Restructuring Agreement (MRA) on March 27, 2014 as per CDR Guidelines. 

IT is a versatile business group with 30000 Employees that contribute to it's Pan India Geographical presence. Incepted in 2002, the Turnover for the Financial Year 2013 is Rs.934.3 Crores. The Group had a CAGR of 100.69% over the past 10 years from FY04 to FY13. 

Can CDR bail out construction firms?

Most construction firms are mired by debt. And with the execution cycle getting delayed due to pending approvals most companies are finding it difficult to service their debt. This has led many companies to indulge in corporate debt restructuring (CDR).

CDR is an exercise which allows construction firms a moratorium period to repay interest. In short, a firm is given a holiday from making interest payments for a certain period of time. Many times the interest payment on the loan is also reduced. However, at the same time the payback period is extended. So, hypothetically a 10 year loan which has an interest component of say Rs 10,000 may now become a 15 year loan with a reduced interest component. This exercise provides some relief to the construction firms in terms of making immediate cash disbursements in the form of interest.

CDR has its own benefits. Since there are immediate cash savings in the form of reduced interest payments, that money can be re-invested into the business. Initial moratorium period (interest holiday) further helps this cause. During this period if the company is able to iron out the issues relating to execution its cash flow situation could improve. This should ease the repayment concerns in future. Thus, CDR mechanism enables the company to come out of the debt mess.

Banks too are willingly extending CDR benefits to borrowers. If not, the loan will be classified as non-performing asset (NPA). This would increase the provisioning requirement over it. Hence, CDR turns out to be a win-win situation both for the borrower and the lender. However, it would not be wrong to say that this mechanism is just a tool to delay the inevitable (default).

CDR provides temporary relief. If the company's cash flow situation does not improve going ahead its repayment capacity would come under question. And it is implied that cash flow situation will improve only if execution gathers pace. But since execution involve government approvals it is difficult to say by when the issues will get resolved. Though government has shown willingness to fast track stalled projects, no meaningful improvement has been seen on the ground till now. As such, CDR will bear no fruits if the execution cycle does not improve. Nonetheless, many companies can use moratorium period to sell stakes in subsidiaries and monetize non-core assets in the mean time. This can help them regain financial strength.

All in all, while CDR does provide an additional life line to construction companies. The real benefits will be visible only if these companies improve their cash flow situation. Else defaults may line up despite the CDR exercise.

Courtesy: Equitymaster.com

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Services Ltd recommended yesterday, at around Rs.10.40, to the Paid Service Members, today hit the buyer freeze in the morning trade at Rs.10.72 in the BSE.  The company has very recently done a Master Restructuring Agreement--wait for non -stop upper freezes in the coming days. The book value of the shares of the company is Rs.148.91 and the market cap is only Rs.86.94 crores.

My recommended  Hindustan Construction Ltd (HCC) at around Rs.12.70--12.80, T--Rs.15, SL--Rs.11.70, on 4th February, 2014, to both the Premium and  Free Members, today touched Rs.19, the 2nd target. 

My recommended Marg Ltd hit the 3nd consecutive buyer freeze at Rs.8.69. The stock is expected to hit some more buyer freezes on the way to its 1st target of Rs.12.3.

Today Unitech Ltd was recommended to the Premium Members at Rs.15.70, due to some positive news in the counter. Unitech Ltd recently informed the BSE that Unitech Corporate Parks Plc (UCP) has received an approach from a third party expressing interest in potential acquisition of its wholly owned subsidiary Candor Investment Limited and that it is currently in discussions regarding a possible sale of this subsidiary. Further the Company has informed that, along with the approach to UCP, the Unitech Group has also been approached by a third party in relation to a strategic alliance for carrying out the remaining development of the IT SEZs / Parks currently under development along with the potential acquisition of its stake in certain IT SEZs / Parks. The scrip after forming a H&W pattern has been continuously moving up since Rs.12.8. The next target seems to be Rs.17.4. 

Glodyne Tech Ltd which was recommended to the Paid Groups at around Rs.4.92, today hit the buyer freeze at Rs.6.21. The scrip should now move up steadily to around Rs.14-15. 

Today, Allied Digital Services Ltd which was asked to be accumulated around Rs.11.70-12 today touched Rs.13.48 before closing at Rs.13.26. The stock should move towards its next target of Rs.21-22, in the coming days. 

Lanco Infrastructure Ltd recommended to the Paid Groups at around Rs.7.70, today touched Rs.8.17 before closing at Rs.8.13. Lanco Infratech Ltd recently informed the BSE that Company has become the successful bidder of the prestigious EPC Contract for establishing "1 x 660 MW Super Critical Ennore Thermal Power Station Expansion Project" by Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Limited (TANGEDCO). We can look for a target of Rs.13-14 in the coming days. 

Tulip Telecom Ltd has hit another buyer freeze at Rs.4.35. The scrip was asked to be accumulated a couple of weeks back. Tulip has huge assets and the book value of the shares of the company is Rs.45.34.

IVRCL Ltd which was recommended around Rs.12.70, last  week today touched Rs.15.39, before closing at Rs.15.15. The scrip has a book value of Rs.70.68 and would get benefited by the recent government action. Once, Essel Group, a Zee Group company which is known to be sympathetic to the BJP (Bhartiya Janata Party) held substantial stake in the company. Subhash Chandra is the Chairman, Essel Group & ZEE. This is driving the stock up. The Hindu Business Line, 6th Apri, 2014 writes: 
Infrastructure companies, for one, often sub-contract work to group entities, or execute projects through joint ventures or SPVs. The actual construction may be taken on by the parent, or it could be the reverse, with the subsidiary or group entity executing a part of the project bagged by the parent. All this results in construction contract charges being exchanged between them. Reliance Infra, IRB Infra, IL&FS Transportation Networks, IVRCL, JSW Energy — all execute projects through subsidiaries or joint ventures. Such sub-contracting, no doubt, gives the parent company greater control over execution and delivers better profit margins to boot. The next target for the scrip seems to be Rs.17, with a resistance at Rs.15.80. 

Country Club (I) Ltd today moved to Rs.8.99 to close at Rs.8.68. The scrip is trading very cheap compared to its current fundamentals. We can expect the scrip to touch Rs.16-17, in the coming days.  

Zicom Electronic Security System Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.67

Incorporated in 1994, Zicom is a pioneer and leader in the field of Electronic Security in India. With operations in over 5 countries, 400 cities in India and One million-plus customer’s, Zicom is today synonymous with Electronic Security in India. In less than two decades Zicom has established itself as a leader in the security domain, introducing distinct innovations that the rest of the industry has followed.
Zicom has been the first Indian Electronic Security Systems company to:

• Be listed on the Indian Bourses in 1995.
• Pioneered the category of Electronic Security In India.
• Introduce 24 x 7 Zicom Command Centre (ZCC) in 1995.
• Introduce wireless security equipments in the home and retail segment.
• Introduce Security Services called e-SaaS (Electronic Security as a Service).

The scrip has a consolidated 9MEPS of Rs.16.34 and book value of Rs.86.98. The current market capitalisation stands at Rs.118.80 crore. The company has reported a consolidated sales of Rs.238.17 crore and a Net Profit of Rs.12.26 crore for the quarter ended Dec 2013. In FY13, its total sales were Rs.691.3 Cr, Net profit of Rs.30.32 Cr and EPS of Rs.19.23. 

Buy the scrip at the CMP of Rs.67, for a target of Rs.84, in the short term. Please keep a SL of Rs.61.70.

Market Mantra

Marg Ltd hit another buyer freeze in the opening trade. The stock is locked at the upper freeze at Rs.8.29. Congratulations to all those who bought the scrip on my recommendation. 

Today. Prakash Industries Ltd hit the upper freeze at Rs.75.90 in the NSE, but came down after profit booking was suggested in the counter. The stock moved up on the optimism that coming back of NDA to power is positive for the company and also due to the fact that the ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala entered the scrip last week. However, at the current fundamentals the scrip is over-valued and those who are holding are suggested to book profit and shift to A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Ltd at Rs.10.45-10.50. 
Glodyne Technoservices Ltd hit another buyer freeze at Rs.5.92. Last week the Paid Members were asked to accumulate the counter at Rs.4.92. The scrip is expected to hit some more buyer freezes going forward. 

Please Click on the Chart to Expand

Today' call: Buy A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services Ltd ( BSE Code: 533292) at Rs.10.45--10.50, for a target of Rs.13.50. There is no need for putting any Stop Loss in the counter. A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services is one of the leading engineering & infrastructure company, where the well known investor, Rakesh Radheshyam Jhunjhunwala holds 10.01% of the shares.  A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services said at the end of last month that the Master Restructuring Agreement (MRA) was executed on Thursday, 27 March 2014 as per Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) Guidelines. It may be recalled that the company had on 30 December 2013 said its board of directors accepted letter of approval (LOA) dated 28 December 2013, issued by CDR Empowered Group (CDR EG) approving the CDR proposal submitted by the company. The CDR EG approved the CDR proposal at its meeting held on 24 December 2013, the company said at that time. Chartically speaking the scrip is above its 200 DSMA and 200 DEMA. The company has equity capital of Rs 74.18 crore. Face value per share is Rs 10.The crossover has already taken place and it is only time that the scrip starts hitting the upper circuits.
Today my recommended Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd (promoter Amtek Auto Ltd) touched Rs.135.35 intra-day. The scrip would soon cross Rs.140 but book profits on the way. 
My strongly recommended IVRCL Ltd at Rs.12.70, today touched Rs.14.98 and is now trading at around Rs.14.40. The scrip is heading towards Rs.21-22 in the coing day---use all the dips to buy the scrip. 

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

Please Click on the Photo to Expand

Glodyne Tech Ltd which was asked to be accumulated last week to the Paid Members, around Rs.4.92, due to some favourable developments today hit the upper circuits at Rs.5.64. The scrip has fallen more than it should and upward journey will continue in the coming days. 
Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd today touched Rs.128.45 before closing at Rs.125.85. Now, the scrip has a book value of Rs.248.05 and EPS of Rs.40.33. Moreover, if we carefully look at the shareholding pattern of the company we would find that Amtek Auto Ltd is holding 64.77% of the shares of the company. Also, the P/E of the scrip is 3.14, while the Industry P/E is 18.25. A reasonable P/E re-rating can take the scrip to around Rs.370-380, in the coming days. Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd manufactures forged automotive components, cold forged parts, and high tensile fasteners primarily in India. It is the second largest manufacturer of forged automotive components in India. Last year, Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd decided to acquire the entire business of First Forge Limited through a Business Transfer Agreement for cash consideration.  The Amtek group has acquired a substantial stake in GWK group of UK, Smith Jones of USA and Zelter of Germany.
My Recommended Marg Ltd (BSE Code: 530543) today hit another upper circuits in both the BSE and in the NSE. In the BSE the scrip closed at Rs.7.90, up 4.91%. According to its FY13, Annual Report, Marg Ltd had an order book at around Rs.3,800 Crores. Even its website says: The Group is executing 21 major projects worth more than Rs 3800 crores in varied domains through its EPC division. Major developments include a 1.85 million sq.ft. integrated development – 'MARG Junction Mall' and a unique 23 million sq. ft. integrated industrial and services township, 'MARG Swarnabhoomi'.
There is no stopping of IVRCL Ltd, the scrip touched Rs.14.54, before closing at Rs.14.37. The company has entered into the CDR cell and has a massive order book of Rs.20, 000 crore plus. The scrip, can even touch Rs.31-32, in the next few months time frame, if the new government continues to priority to the infrastructure sector. The company is likely to get benefitted from the recent government proposal of giving some relief to the infrastructure firms. Recently IVRCL  Ltd was recommended by Akshata Deshmukh of Networth Capital for a target of Rs 14.90.
Today, my long term recommendation Prakash Industries Ltd hit the upper circuits and closed at Rs.68.70 in the BSE. A few of my clients whose trading I manage (for whom I trade) are  holding the shares of the company, since a long time. They would surely be benefited from this move. This scrip should further move up as it could be a major beneficiary, if a NDA led government is formed at the center. I cannot disclose further details here, due to some constraints.
Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd moved to Rs.29.80 before cooling down at Rs.29.20 in the BSE. The scrip is likely to touch Rs.50, in the next few weeks, as it CDR scheme gets approval and the government decides to relax import restrictions on gold. The Commerce Ministry had already voiced their concerns over this and now Finance Ministry has also joined the chorus. 

Raghuram Rajan hints at gradual easing of gold import curbs

Mumbai, April 3, 2014: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan has said he is in favour of easing of curbs on gold imports but stressed on the need to do it in a slow and steady manner.

The government successfully weathered the high current account deficit (CAD) scare in the just-concluded financial year.

"I think what we have to do is slowly and steadily take actions to remove some of these curbs (on gold imports)," Rajan told analysts at the post-policy concall with researchers and analysts on Wednesday.

He, however, said the timing on relaxation on gold imports needs to be discussed with the government.

"It would be useful for some of the big uncertainties facing us to be behind us rather than still in front of us before major actions are taken up in this regard, but I don't rule it out," Rajan said.

Gold imports has been the second biggest import bill after crude, leading to higher CAD, which had touched 4.8 per cent of GDP in FY13.

The government had raised raised customs duty to 10 per cent on gold from 2 per cent earlier.

According to Finance Minister P Chidambaram, with the curbs in place, CAD was brought to about $35 billion in FY14.

Earlier this week, Chidambaram had indicated that the government might further ease restrictions on gold imports after the monetary policy.

"Some relaxations were made a few days ago when more banks were allowed to import gold. We could consider some more relaxations in consultation with RBI," he had said.

Courtesy: Business Today

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd was recommended to the Paid Groups at Rs.125.5-126; the scrip touched Rs.129, intra-day before cooling down at Rs.127.35. The scrip has a book value of Rs.248.05 and EPS of Rs.40.33. It is therefore really astonishing why the scrip is trading so low. Its all time high is around Rs.290, made in 2007.  

Today Marg Ltd (BSE Code: 530543) was recommended at Rs.7.65 (in the NSE), to the Paid Groups, as a speculative buy. The scrip is expected to hit few more buyer frezees going forward.

IVRCL Ltd today touched Rs.14 before cooling down at Rs.13.64. After a long run, this is a healthy correction, which will allow fresh investors to enter the counter. The  company has entered in the CDR cell and its order book is Rs.20,  000 crore. Hence it is only time that the scrip would move past Rs.30. Buy the scrip on all declines. 

Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd today touched Rs.30.50, before cooling down at Rs.29.50. The scrip will slowly move towards Rs.41-42, in the coming days.
Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd, which was recommended in this blog around Rs.14.30, today touched Rs.15.65 before cooling down at Rs.15.44. Visit this blog from time to time to get some of the best investment ideas. In a bull market, one can make the money safely without playing in the future market too. 

Today, the Nifty_Spot closed just above the immediate support of 5725 at 6736.10 down 16.45 points. The FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs.717.39 Cr while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs.716.57, giving only Rs.82 lakhs as the net inflow. It therefore remains a question as to from where so much DII selling is taking place!! Moreover, chartically speaking a sudden rise of 800 points in just two months time and the oscillators looking overbought on the daily charts, does make a case for a small correction in the market, which should be used by investors to accumulate good counters. The action will continue in the small and mid cap counters going forward.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

IVRCL Ltd today touched Rs.13.90, before closing at Rs.13.82, up 2.67%.  The company has entered in the CDR cell and the scrip should now move towards Rs.17-18, in the coming days. 

Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd today touched Rs.30.10, before closing at Rs.29.85. The scrip was repeatedly recommended in this blog for a target of Rs.41-42. 

Dena Bank Ltd today moved to Rs.61.80, before closing at Rs.61.50. This is one of the stock PSU bank stocks and should slowly inch towards Rs.90, in the coming days. 

Allied Digial Services Ltd was asked to be accumulated to the Paid Groups, last week. Today the scrip closed at Rs.12.80, up 6.84%. The scrip would be moving towards Rs.21-22, in the coming days, in view of the expectation of good Q4FY14 numbers. 
Jet Airways Ltd which was recommended last week to the Paid Group Members, at around Rs.232-233, today touched Rs.285.40, before closing at Rs.278.85. 
Jayprakash Power Ventures Ltd recommended in this blog on 30th March, 2014, today touched Rs.14.88, before closing at Rs.14.75. The next resistance comes at Rs.16-16.5.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

IVRCL Ltd touched Rs.13.60 intra-day before cooling down at Rs.13.46. The scrip would be moving towards Rs.17-18, in the coming days due to multiple positive news. The scrip has a book value of Rs.70.68. 

Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd which was asked to be accumulated on all dips today touched Rs.28.45 before cooling down at Rs.27.95. Buy the scrip on all declines. A debt restructuring plan needs the consent of 75% of lenders to push the proposal to CDR. Therefore, even if some lenders are not agreeing to the proposal, the deal is passed. According to my close sources it is a done case. Just buy and keep holding for a target of Rs.41-42--there is no need to trade.

Hindalco Industries Ltd was recommended on 9th May, 2013, at Rs.103-103.50 for a target of Rs.113-115. The scrip touched 52-WEEK HIGH OF Rs.142.80 today. 
Country Club Ltd is slowly inching up. Today, the scrip closed at Rs.7.85. It already has 9MEPS (Consolidated) of Rs.2.62. With an FY14, consolidated EPS of around Rs.3.5, it is only time that the scrip would touch Rs.17-18, hitting multiple upper circuits on the way. 
Jet Airways Ltd was recommended on this blog at Rs.231-233, last week, the scrip touched Rs.251.35 today. Therefore, without playing F&O in the market too, you can make money, if you follow certain basic principles. Tomorrow I will give an Option Call to the Paid Members. The name will be disclosed in this blog in the evening. 

Govt may further ease restrictions on gold import soon: FM

Press Trust of India  |  New Delhi  March 31, 2014

Finance Minister P Chidmabaram today indicated that government may further ease restrictions on gold imports after tomorrow's monetary policy by RBI as Current Account Deficit has moderated to about USD 35 billion. 

"Some relaxations were made a few days ago when more banks were allowed to import gold. We could consider some more relaxations in consultation with RBI," he said while releasing the year-end report on economy. 

"Let the RBI's monetary policy be announced tomorrow and then we will consider whether some relaxation can be done," he said. 

Emphasising that the economy today is far more stable and far stronger than what it was 20 months ago, he said, CAD is expected to come down about USD 35 billion during the current fiscal. 

It was at a record high of USD 88.2 billion or 4.8 per cent of GDP as gold imports soared 845 tonnes last fiscal. 

In order to restrict CAD, the government took measures to curb gold import. The government raised import duty on the precious metal three times taking it to 10 per cent and also made it mandatory to export 20 per cent of the total gold imported. 

Following this gold imports came down to 19 tonnes in November from a peak of 162 tonnes in May. The CAD, too, was brought down to 3.1 per cent in April-September of current fiscal, from 4.5 per cent in the same period last year. 

Gold imports have fallen substantially after the restrictions. Gold and silver imports declined 71.4 per cent to USD 1.63 billion in February. 

Imports of gold and silver in February 2013 stood at USD 5.24 billion. In January this year, they were USD 1.72 billion. 

Earlier this month, the RBI allowed more banks, including Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank to import gold under the 80:20 scheme.

Courtesy: The Business Standard

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

Glodyne Technoserve Ltd was given a buy to the Paid Group on last week at Rs.4.92, on some optimism. The scrip today, closed at Rs.5.25 up 4.58%.

D B Realty Ltd was given a buy at Rs.53-54, for a target of Rs.61-62, on 27th March, 2014 to the Paid Group members and to those who are trading with my recommended brokerage house. The scrip today achieved its first target of Rs.61 (made a  high of Rs.61.10) intra-day. 

Mcnally Bharat Engineering Ltd which was recommended around Rs.53-54 on 26th March, 2014 to the Premium Members, today touched Rs.73.10, intra-day. Its 4-5 months target was given Rs.77-78 at that time, but the way the scrip is aggressively moving up,  it seems the target will be achieved much earlier.

Please Click on the Chart to Expand 

Today, IVRCL Ltd was recommended at Rs.12.78-12.84, the scrip touched Rs.13.29, intra-day before closing down at Rs.13.21. The scrip would cross Rs.16-17, in the next few days.  

Today Dena Bank Ltd, was recommended a buy at Rs.59.50-60, the scrip closed at Rs.60.55. The scrip has a book value of Rs.110.67 and 9MEPS of Rs.10.44. Therefore, it is only time that the scrip would hit Rs.90. Keep buying the scrip on all declines. 
Today Nifty closed at 6704.20 just below the key resistance at 6720. However, today FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs.942.86 Cr though DIIs were net sellers of Rs.611.22 Cr of Indian equities. Where is the Nifty heading from here? Which scrips to buy? To get answers to such questions and also to receive other information on equity market, do join the Premium Service or my recommended brokerage  house/s.

Note: I have injured my left wrist (and some injury on the spine), after a nasty fall, yesterday. Hence, I might not be able to update this blog on regular basis, please bear with me. 

Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd: Buy

CMP: Rs.14.25

Introduction: Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd is an Indian power company, incorporated on Dec 21, 1994 and is a part of India’s leading Infrastructure conglomerate - Jaypee Group. It currently operates the largest hydroelectric power plant in the private sector in India. Its power projects which are in different stages of implementation include Hydro, Thermal and Transmission.

The Jaypee Group is a diversified infrastructure conglomerate in India with interests in Civil Engineering and Construction, Cement, Power, Real Estate, Expressways, Hospitality, Golf Courses, Sports and Education (not-for-profit). 

Financials: Jaiprakash Power Ventures’ (JPVL) reported net loss of Rs.150 Cr in Q3FY14, which were mainly due to seasonal lower hydro-electric generation and under recovery of fixed costs at Bina. 

Vishnuprayag hydro plant (VHP) remains shut but the management expects to bring it online by next April, 2014. 
Conclusion: The future stock price movement will be driven by developments around company’s plans to fund (a) corporate debt repayment of Rs.34.6 bn and (b) Rs.16 bn equity for Bara and Nigrie plants over FY14-15. Recently, its group company Jaiprakash Associatess Ltd sold its entire 74 percent stake in Bokaro Cement to Dalmia Bharat, which fetched the company around Rs.700 crore. On a consolidated basis, Jaiprakash Associates had a debt of around Rs.63,000 crore. But post the three deals – Ultratech ,  Jaiprakash Power Ventures  and the recent Bokaro – its debt burden has gone down by about Rs.14000 crore. According to an analyst, the company's debt burden could come down to sub-Rs 50,000 crore by March '15, assuming it doesn't enter into any other deals. 

Meanwhile, there were media reports this month that, Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd, sold two hydro power units to TAQA for Rs.10,500 crore. This will help JP Power Ventures bring down its debt by that much amount and help the company deleveraging. Moreover, its FY15 earnings growth will be anchored on the expected commissioning of Nigrie plant.

Buy the scrip at the CMP of Rs.14.25, for a short term target of Rs.16.5-17 and medium term target of Rs.25. 

Loosening import duties on gold may spike demand

As the general election in India nears to close, Indian jewelers have crossed their fingers anticipating that the new government may take steps in relaxing the import rules imposed over the year. With the wedding and festive seasons at full swing in India gold demand for jewelry may spike in the coming days. Jewelers in India are expecting axing of 10% import duty so that they can supply enough jewelry this season. Due to the stringent import regulations in 2013, Indian jewelers had to face immense supply crunch of stocks which made it difficult to satisfy the rising demand.

Commenting on the expectation of the rebounding of India’s Gold import, Mr. T.S Kalyanaraman, the chairman of a South India-based jewelry – the Kalyan Jewelers expressed his belief that the new Government may relax the import curbs very soon so that the jewelry industry would recover. While addressing the media, Kalyanaraman said that a recovery of gold shipments in India from mid-year will definitely help in uplifting overseas purchases of gold in 2014. He adds that they expect to surpass the gold import of 2013 that stood at 825 metric tons by this year. Since jewelers are struggling to meet raw material supply, the regulations on gold bullion import are expected to be taken out this year, which may further spur smuggling.

In 2013, owing to the ballooning current account deficit of the country, India had increased the import tax on gold thrice starting from 2% to reach the record high of 10%. This stringent rule fell as a wind fall on Indian jewelers as the shipment declined while dragging down the CAD to controllable levels. It created shortage of stocks in India which rendered many jewelers and artisans jobless. The gold import is expected to continue its downward movement until June, after which it is expected to rebound by the end of June to reach the same figures of 2013.

According to the predictions by Societe General SA and Goldman Sachs Inc., gold is likely to fall below $1,000 an ounce amid the expectation of rebounding. According to Kalyanaraman, the smuggled gold demand in India may further increase by 40% to 50 % if the import duty is not eased and demand for jewelry continue to surge in India. He added that the demand for gold has triggered several small jewelers in India to sell their stocks without bills or showing the official figures. 

Courtesy: Resource Investor

Sensex, Nifty scale fresh record high

Key benchmark indices edged higher and hit fresh record high, with the market sentiment boosted by data showing that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) made substantial purchases of Indian stocks on Wednesday, 26 March 2014. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, and the 50-unit CNX Nifty, both, hit lifetime high on intraday basis as well as on closing basis. Stocks turned volatile during the latter part of the trading session as traders rolled over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near-month March 2014 series to April 2014 series. The near-month March 2014 F&O contracts expired today, 27 March 2014. The Sensex garnered 119.07 points or 0.54%, off close to 95 points from the day's high and up about 120 points from the day's low. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was positive.

The Sensex rose for the second day in a row today, 27 March 2014. From a recent low of 22,055.21 on Tuesday, 25 March 2014, the Sensex has gained 159.16 points or 0.72% in two trading sessions. The Sensex has risen 1,094.25 points or 5.18% in this month so far (till 27 March 2014). The Sensex has risen 1,043.69 points or 4.92% so far in calendar 2014 (till 27 March 2014). From a 52-week low of 17,448.71 on 28 August 2013, the Sensex has risen 4,765.66 points or 27.31%.

Coming back to today's trade, Reliance Industries (RIL) gained in volatile trade after the company after market hours on Wednesday, 26 March 2014, announced that the Ministry of Energy (MOE) of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar has selected RIL for two offshore blocks in Myanmar Offshore Block Bidding Round - 2013. PSU banks stocks rose across the board on renewed buying. Among cement stocks, UltraTech Cement hit 52-week high.

Key benchmark indices edged higher amid initial volatility. Key benchmark indices extended initial gains and hit fresh intraday high in morning trade as Asian stocks rose. Key benchmark indices extended gains and hit fresh intraday high in mid-morning trade. The Sensex and the 50-unit CNX Nifty, both, hit record high. Firmness continued on the bourses in afternoon trade. Key benchmark indices trimmed gains in mid-afternoon trade as European markets dropped in early trade there. Volatility ruled the roost as the key benchmark indices trimmed gains after a rally took them to fresh record high in late trade.

The market sentiment was boosted by data showing that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) made substantial purchases of Indian stocks on Wednesday, 26 March 2014. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 1030.50 crore from the secondary equity markets on Wednesday, 26 March 2014, as per the data from the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi).

The S&P BSE Sensex garnered 119.07 points or 0.54% to settle at 22,214.37, a record closing high. The index jumped 212.44 points at the day's high of 22,307.74 in late trade, a lifetime high for the barometer index. The index fell 1.01 points at the day's low of 22,094.29 in early trade.

The CNX Nifty garnered 40.35 points or 0.61% to settle at 6,641.75, a record closing high. The index hit a high of 6,673.95 in intraday trade, a lifetime high for the index. The index hit a low of 6,599.50 in intraday trade.

The BSE Mid-Cap index garnered 41.60 points or 0.61% to settle at 6,909.67. The BSE Small-Cap garnered 68.11 points or 0.99% to settle at 6,916.50. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The S&P BSE Capital Goods index (up 0.69%), the S&P BSE Bankex (up 0.74%), the S&P BSE Oil & Gas index (up 1.28%), the S&P BSE Power index (up 0.92%), the S&P BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.46%), the S&P BSE FMCG index (up 0.63%), and the S&P BSE Realty index (up 1.06%), outperformed the Sensex.

The S&P BSE Auto index (up 0.52%), the S&P BSE Metal index (down 0.03%), the S&P BSE IT index (down 0.1%), the S&P BSE Teck index (up 0.28%), and the S&P BSE Healthcare index (down 0.81%), underperformed the Sensex.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 2562 crore, lower than Rs 4210.86 crore on Wednesday, 26 March 2014.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. On BSE, 1,673 shares gained and 1,127 shares fell. A total of 161 shares were unchanged.

Among the 30-share Sensex pack, 19 stocks gained and rest of them declined.

Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 0.88% to Rs 898 in volatile trade. The stock hit high of Rs 904.45 and low of Rs 892.75. RIL after market hours on Wednesday, 26 March 2014, said that the Ministry of Energy (MOE) of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar has selected RIL for two offshore blocks (M17 and M18) in Myanmar Offshore Block Bidding Round - 2013. Both the blocks are located offshore in the Moattama basin of Myanmar in water depths upto 3,000 ft and together encompass an area of 27,600 sq. kms.

As per the process, RIL or its affiliates will enter into Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) for these offshore blocks. The PSC allows for an initial preparation and study periods before committing into Phase 1 of Exploration period, RIL said. RIL's participation is in line with its strategy of portfolio rationalization by expanding its international asset base by investing in regimes having attractive internationally competitive terms on offer. The company thus hopes to leverage its organizational capabilities and expertise to create value for the E&P segment, RIL said.

In a separate announcement, RIL after market hours on Wednesday, 26 March 2014, said it has taken a planned maintenance shutdown of one of its three Para Xylene units at Jamnagar. The scheduled shut down period is approximately for a period of six weeks. This shut down will also be utilized to improve reliability and performance of the unit, RIL said. The other two Para Xylene units-will continue to operate normally, RIL said. RIL has a total capacity of 1.8 million MT per annum of Para Xylene at Jamnagar.

In another separate announcement, RIL after market hours on Wednesday, 26 March 2014, said that one allegation that is making rounds is that the Gujarat state government bought cheap land from farmers and gave it to RIL at concessional rates. However, the facts are completely opposite, RIL said. We would like to make it absolutely clear that more than 90% of land that we acquired for our plants in Gujarat have been bought directly from farmers. The price that we paid to the farmers was more than the market rates. We have not violated any rules in the process of acquiring land and all rules have been followed, RIL said in a statement.

Thousands of farmers of Gujarat are the company's partners in the process of industrialisation, RIL said. RIL said that thousands of families in Gujarat have benefitted from the process of industrialisation. Some politicians have been making unsubstantiated statements against RIL for grabbing attention and instant mileage, RIL said. They tend to make sweeping statements for instant gratification without corroborative evidence, RIL said. We would, however like to it clear that all these allegations are baseless and without any substance, RIL said.

PSU bank stocks gained across the board on renewed buying. Canara Bank (up 2.54%), IDBI Bank (up 3.25%), Punjab National Bank (up 3.38%), Bank of Baroda (up 3.39%), Bank of India (up 1.51%) and Union Bank of India (up 2.18%) gained.

State Bank of India jumped 4.46% to Rs 1,847 after a foreign brokerage upgraded the stock to buy from neutral rating. The brokerage also revised its price target on the State Bank of India (SBI) stock to Rs 2,080 from Rs 1,440 per share, citing the bank will benefit from economic recovery and lower slippages. The brokerage expects slippage ratio of the bank to decline to 3.2% in the fiscal year ending March 2016 (FY 2016) and stress loans to fall from 9.1% in Q3 December 2013 to 8.4% by FY 2016.

Dena Bank rose 1.48% to Rs 58.20 after the bank said it has allotted total shares aggregating about 6.90 crore shares at Rs 52.91 per share to Life Insurance Corporation of India and GIC of India on preferential allotment basis. The announcement was made during trading hours today, 27 March 2014.

Dena Bank said that the Issue Committee of the Board of the Bank at its meeting held on Wednesday, 26 March 2014, allotted 5.32 crore and 1.58 crore equity shares at Rs 52.91 per share to Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and GIC of lndia, respectively on preferential basis. Consequent upon this issue, the Government of lndia holding in the bank will be at 58.01%.

The equity shares so allotted shall rank pari-passu with the existing equity shares of the bank including dividend, if any and will be locked in for a period of one year from the date of trading approval received from stock exchanges, as per the SEBI (ICDR) Regulations, 2009, Dena Bank said.

State Bank of Travancore rose 0.62%. State Bank of Travancore announced after market hours on Wednesday, 26 March 2014 that the board of directors of the bank at its meeting held on Wednesday, 26 March 2014, has declared an interim dividend of Rs 2.50 per share to its shareholders for the year ending 31 March 2014. The date of payment of interim dividend is fixed as 22 April 2014.

The board of directors also approved to undertake preferential allotment not exceeding Rs 385 crore to State Bank of India (SBI) for equity shares of face value of Rs 10 each along with share premium subject to receiving the shareholders' approval and any other required statutory approvals. The board has also approved in principle for increasing the equity capital of the bank by way of issue of new shares on rights basis including share premium not exceeding Rs 629 crore.

State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur lost 2.3% as the stock turned ex-dividend today, 27 March 2014, for interim dividend of Rs 14.30 per share for the year ending 31 March 2014

UltraTech Cement gained 3.27% to Rs 2,051.50 after hitting a 52-week high of Rs 2,072 in intraday trade.

Infosys shed 0.5% to Rs 3,228.50 in volatile trade. The stock hit high of Rs 3,262 and low of Rs 3,217. Infosys and Zain Bahrain -- a telecom operator in Bahrain -- today, 27 March 2014, said that the two companies have co-created Zain Self-Care, an application that is radically transforming user experience for Zain's subscribers, through self-service. Zain Self-Care is an innovative mobile application for smart phones and tablets that is built using Infosys AssistEdge, a product that transforms customer experience across channels. The application functions on all operating systems including iOS, Android, Windows and Blackberry.

Launched in February 2013, Zain Self-Care is a first-of-its-kind mobile telecom application from an operator in Bahrain. It currently enjoys wide-spread adoption across the company's customer base and offers Zain's subscribers unparalleled convenience in managing their telecom service needs, Infosys and Zain said in a joint statement.

Pharma stocks edged lower. Cipla (down 0.31%), Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (down 1.21%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 2.27%) and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (down 1%) declined.

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories lost 1.86%. Dr. Reddy's Laboratories during market hours today, 27 March 2014, announced that it has launched Amlodipine Besylate and Atorvastatin Calcium Tablets 2.5/10 mg, 2.5/20mg, 2.5/40mg, 5/10mg, 5/20mg, 5/40mg, 5/80mg, 10/10mg, 10/20mg, 10/40mg and 10/80 mg a therapeutic equivalent generic version of CADUET (amlodipine Besylate and atorvastatin calcium) tablets, in the US market on Wednesday, 26 March 2014, following the approval by the United States Food & Drug Administration (USFDA).

The CADUET tablets brand and its generic had US sales of approximately $163 million for the most recent twelve months period ended 31 January 2014, according to IMS Health data. Dr. Reddy's Amlodipine Besylate and Atorvastatin Calcium Tablets are available in bottle counts of 30 and 90, the company said.

Lupin edged lower in choppy trade after the company announced the acquisition of 100% equity stake in Laboratorios Grin, S.A. De C.V. (Grin), Mexico, subject to certain closing conditions. The stock lost 0.08% at Rs 935.85. The scrip hit high of Rs 946.05 and low of Rs 923.55. The acquisition of Laboratorios Grin marks Lupin's foray into the high growth Mexican and the larger Latin American pharmaceuticals market, Lupin said. Mexico is one of the fastest growing pharmaceutical markets in the world valued at over $13.5 billion and growing at 9-10% annually.

Incorporated in 1955, Grin is a specialty pharmaceutical company engaged in the development, manufacturing & commercialization of branded Ophthalmic products. Grin is a leading Ophthalmic player and a trusted brand in Mexico. Laboratorios Grin recorded revenue of approximately $28 Million in calendar year 2013 and has over 275 employees.

Commenting on the acquisition, Ms. Vinita Gupta, Chief Executive Officer, Lupin said: We are very pleased with our entry into the Mexican market through Laboratorios Grin. This acquisition is a reflection of Lupin's commitment to expand into the Latin American market and build its global specialty business. We see a lot of synergies in this acquisition and plan to bring our Ophthalmic pipeline to build the Grin business as well as leverage their commercial presence to enter other promising therapy segments.

Mr. Victor Fregoso, President of Grin commented: I am delighted with Grin's association with Lupin. Having nurtured and built Grin for so long, I firmly believe that the future and growth of Grin would be best handled by the management and technology expertise that Lupin brings to table. I wish Grin and Lupin the very best in their future endeavors.

Maruti Suzuki India fell 0.12% to Rs 1,935.20. The stock was volatile. The scrip hit record high of Rs 1,967.60 in intraday trade. The stock hit low of Rs 1,921.55 in intraday trade.

Shares of two wheeler makers gained. TVS Motor Company (up 0.32%) and Bajaj Auto (up 1.62%) gained.

Hero MotoCorp gained 3.11% to Rs 2,244.45 after hitting a 52-week high of Rs 2,257 in intraday trade.

Capital goods stocks edged higher. Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) (up 1.23%), BEML (up 1.92%), Siemens (up 1.3%) and Praj Industries (up 1.14%) gained.

L&T edged higher after the company said its Buildings & Factories division has won new housing orders worth Rs 1981 crore in this month. The stock rose 0.64% to Rs 1,283.35. The stock hit a 52-week high of Rs 1,295 in intraday trade.

BPCL rose 2.45% to Rs 455.05 after hitting record high of Rs 464.50 in intraday trade.

Indian Hotels Company rose 0.64%. Indian Hotels Company today, 27 March 2014, said its board of directors has considered and approved, subject to the approval of the shareholders of the company to the extent applicable, and receipt of relevant approvals from regulatory authorities, as may be required, issue of compulsory convertible debentures by way of a rights issue to the existing shareholders of the company on a record date for an amount not exceeding Rs 1000 crore. The terms and conditions of the rights issue including the rights entitlement ratio, the issue price, record date, timing of the rights issue and other related matters shall be decided subsequently by a duly constituted committee of the board, Indian Hotels Company said.

The Reserve Bank of India will announce the First Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2014-15 on 1 April 2014. Citing price pressures, the Reserve Bank of India raised its key lending rates by 25 basis points after Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 on 28 January 2014.

The next major trigger for the stock market is the outcome of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Lok Sabha elections will be held between 7 April 2014 and 12 May 2014 in nine phases. The counting of votes will take place on 16 May 2014. The term of the current Lok Sabha expires on June 1 and the new House has to be constituted by May 31. Along with the Lok Sabha election, Andhra Pradesh (AP), including the regions comprising Telangana, Odisha and Sikkim will go to polls to elect new assemblies. AP, Odisha and Sikkim assemblies come to end on June 2, June 7 and May 7 respectively.

European stocks edged lower in choppy trade on Thursday, 27 March 2014, on concern that the crisis in Ukraine may escalate. In UK, the FTSE 100 index was off 27.13 points or 0.41%. In France, the CAC 40 Index was off 0.06%. In Germany, the DAX index was up 0.06%.

US President Barack Obama, in a speech in Brussels, on Wednesday, 26 March 2014, called for further economic sanctions against Russia over its annexation of Crimea. Obama, speaking in Brussels, warned of consequences of complacency in Ukraine and said Russia's actions must be met with condemnation.

The US and European Union have imposed financial sanctions on Russian and Ukrainian officials as well associates of Russian President Vladimir Putin, leaving open the threat of broader sanctions targeting the Russian economy, including its energy and financial sectors.

Italian manufacturing business confidence rose again in March thanks to an improved orders outlook, national statistics institute Istat said Thursday. Confidence among Italy's manufacturers rose to 99.2 in March--its highest level since July 2011--from 99.1 in February, according to Istat's monthly survey.

French consumer confidence rose in March as households grew more optimistic about their financial situation and the overall standard of living in France, according to data released Thursday by the national statistics agency Insee. In March, the consumer confidence index increased to 88 from 85 in February, back to its July 2012 level, Insee said.

Asian stocks edged higher in choppy trade on Thursday, 27 March 2014, as utilities advanced. Key benchmark indices in Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and South Korea were up 0.48% to 1.01%. Key benchmark indices in Indonesia, China and Hong Kong were off 0.11% to 0.83%.

Data today, 27 March 2014, showed mainland China industrial profits increased 9.4% in the two months through February year-on-year, compared with 17% growth a year earlier.

Taiwan's central bank on Thursday left its key interest rates unchanged for the 11th straight quarter as expected, as inflation remains low and growth of its major export markets is still uneven. The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) said the discount rate will remain at 1.875%, the secured loan rate at 2.25% and the unsecured loan rate at 4.125%. The bank has stood pat on the three policy interest rates since the third quarter of 2011.

During a news conference, Gov. Perng Fai-nan said a moderately accommodative monetary policy will continue to be in place. We will have to take into consideration future goods prices, the output gap... and the global economy, he said, when asked about the timing of raising interest rates.

Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could advance 30 points at the opening bell on Thursday, 27 March 2014. US stocks edged lower on Wednesday, 26 March 2014, after mid-afternoon selling intensified when US President Barack Obama, in a speech in Brussels, called for further economic sanctions against Russia over its annexation of Crimea.

In US economic news, orders for big-ticket items rose 2.2% in February, powered by higher bookings for autos and aircraft. Stripping out the volatile transportation sector, orders rose a smaller 0.2%.

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard today, 27 March 2014, said that the key risk for the US economy would be a bubble forming as the central bank removes monetary-policy accommodations, while he also raised concerns about financial stability in the US economy. I don't see a major bubble right now, but one will form as we are trying to remove the accommodation in the years ahead, because that's what exactly had happened in the 2004-2006 period, Bullard told the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. I do think that's a key risk going forward, he said. Bullard related the risk to the situation in 2006, the housing prices had already started to peak at the same time as the central bank was in a tightening cycle. Just because you are moving away accommodation doesn't mean the risk of bubble forming is going away, he said. Bullard also emphasized that financial stability concerns are looming large, as policy makers are thinking about how to accommodate those concerns. He said macroprudential tools, which have been strengthened, can be used to address emerging bubbles. Bullard is a non-voting member of Federal Open Market Committee this year.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next undertakes monetary policy review at a two-day meeting on 29-30 April 2014. The Federal Reserve on 19 March 2014 said after the conclusion of a monetary policy review that it will trim its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion. The Federal Reserve will end its bond-buying program before the end of the year with an interest-rate increase likely to follow in around six months, Chair Janet Yellen said on 19 March 2014. Quarterly Fed forecasts on 19 March 2014 showed more officials predicting that the benchmark interest rate, now close to zero, will rise to at least 1% by the end of 2015 and 2.25% a year later.

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Winning Strokes: Think Different

The Nifty as expected got jolted at 6673.95, as 6675 turned out to be  resistance on the upside, as was mentioned in the Paid Blog on Monday. Paid Members, were asked to book profits on Nifty longs, which I am sure most  had done, get good profits on their investments. Moreover, Mcnally Bharat Engineering Ltd (BSE Code: 532629) which was recommended yesterday to the Paid Groups around Rs.52-53, today touched Rs.65 (more than 20% return in just two days), before closing at Rs.61.20. Join the Paid Service, to  cover your losses and get guidance during the market  hours. Also, if you  join  my recommended brokerage house with a minimum portfolio size of Rs.1 lakhs, then you would get the Premium Service Free of Charge. Those who have already applied for the same, please give me a day or two to process your request.
Today, D B Realty Ltd was recommended at Rs.53-54, the scrip reached Rs.55, intra-day. The news that is coming from Dalal Street is that, the Promoters got 11.45 mln shares of the company, which were pledged released on March, 18, 2014. The scrip could move towards Rs.61-62, in the coming days.
Today Jet Airways Ltd was recommended a buy to the Paid Groups around Rs.231-232, the scrip reached Rs.237.85 intra-day. The news is that, it is tentative to start a second daily flight from Mumbai to Kathmandu from March 30, 2014. Theairline has added flights from Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, and Bengaluru to Abu Dhabi and rescheduled some local flights in the summer schedule to feed maximum traffic to partner Etihad's global network. I would therefore, not be surprised if the share crosses Rs.300, in the next one month time frame.

India’s unprecedented appetite for gold: The Indian lust for gold is commonly ascribed to high inflation

Mar 25 2014: As the decade-long surge in gold prices moderates, trends ahead may help explain India’s unprecedented appetite for the metal in recent years. To what extent was this driven by the global boom? And how much did domestic factors like inflation contribute? Disentangling the respective roles could offer useful lessons for future economic policies.

The issue is of interest from an Indian perspective, for past inflation episodes haven’t been accompanied by such a large-scale shift towards gold as has happened since 2008. Gold imports grew 42% annually in 2008-12, shrinking 2% in 2012-13 as import duties were raised to narrow the current account deficit. In the same period, global gold prices increased an average 27% annually, in large part fueled by the creation of global liquidity by advanced countries’ central banks. Gold is priced in dollars, so when the dollar’s value gets debased, investors reposition their holdings in favour of gold establishing a positive relationship between quantitative easing and gold prices.

The Indian lust for gold is commonly ascribed to high inflation. Consumer price inflation averaged 10% each year from 2009 to 2011, while real interest rates were negative over 2009-10 from loose monetary policy. Savers shifted to physical assets like gold from financial assets like bank deposits; deposit growth nearly halved from 20.4% in 2008-09 to 11.4% by 2010-11, recovering thereafter as monetary policy settings were adjusted.

Inflation alone however may not account for this extraordinary gold appetite. Given the coincidence with the global boom, portfolio factors possibly played a role. Gold outperformed all other assets in this period, offering savers annual returns in excess of 25% in 2008-11. Bank deposits compare poorly with that, even if real rates are positive as happened in 2012 -- gold demand remained undampened, inviting fiscal restraints. Income growth was strong too—in the four years to 2011-12, Gross Domestic Product growth averaged 7.7% annually, while per capita incomes grew an average 6% each year. Indian gold demand is highly income elastic.

With the US monetary stimulus in reversal mode, its economy recovering firmly and interest rate increases on the horizon, the settings are now reversing for gold. Global gold prices fell 28% in 2013. A changing global macroeconomic framework may thus reflect in India’s gold demand. Moderation to long-term trend levels will help highlight the role of future macroeconomic policies. For example, global liquidity that enters in the form of capital flow surges when combined with exchange rate appreciation, rising incomes and import demand, consumption and asset price boom, as was the case in 2009 and 2010, along with high inflation. Monetary policy alone then cannot curb gold demand; fiscal measures would be more effective instead.
 

-By Renu Kohli, a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.

Courtesy: Live Mint

Plot Land in Mumbai (Bombay) For Sale

Photo: Juhu Beach, Mumbai ( Bombay) 

The Details of the Plot of Land in Juhu (near Andheri):  

## Area:- 4365 sq ft.

## Its an Open Plot on a prime location near Juhu Gymkhana & Mr.Amitab Bachchan's Old Bunglow. Its on Road No 12, Plot No.64. All papers Are Available On the Table.

## Cost of the Plot: Rs.35 (Thirty Five) crore (not Negotiable) and it is for outright sale. 

If anyone is interested in buying the plot please do ping me at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com. 

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

IBM designed and is building the largest  data center in India
for Tulip Telecom Ltd. to deliver new cloud and networking
services to its customers. Image credit: IBM

Morning recommendation to the Paid Group Members, was Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd (BSE Code: 51335) at Rs.120-124. The scrip zoomed to Rs.133.50 in the BSE and Rs.133.80  in the NSE intra-day, to settle at Rs.130.95 in the BSE and Rs.131 in the NSE, at the end of the day. The Bombay Stock Exchange website, www.bseindia.com has probably gone for a toss, as one might not get the quotes of almost half of the shares listed in the BSE. Join the Paid Service or my recommended Brokerage House, to get all sorts of Calls in the stock market, both in the cash and in the F&O market. Also, if you have made losses in the market, then start investing in the market now and cover up all your losses through some smart trades. 

Now as long as Nifty_Spot does not cross 6570-6575 ranges on the upside, the chances of rally continuing looks dim. Today Nifty tried to cross that range and touched 6591.50, but had to retreat due to selling pressure at higher levels. Today, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs.1465.62 Cr, while DIIs were net sellers of Rs.770.39 Cr. So, the net inflow in the market was Rs.695.23 Crores. 

Tulip Telecom Ltd today hit the upper freeze in the BSE and closed at Rs.4.01. The Book value of the shares of the company is Rs.45.34 and in case of liquidation, the shareholders would get good amounts after settling the liabilities. The company  has huge assets in the form of Data Centre, where it invested around Rs.900 Cr. There are also talks of a large telecom taking over the operations of the company, as the lenders are probably thinking on those lines, instead of allowing the company to go for a natural death. 

Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd today closed flat at Rs.26.04. The company was supposed to have a meeting with the consortium of the Banks today, for the CDR scheme. It is widely believed that the said CDR proposal will be approved by the banks and the company would again start its expansion plans. Those investors, who has a time horizon of 6-9 months should buy the scrip in BULK and keep holding, like your fixed deposit. There is no need to trade in the shares of the company everyday; just buy and wait. The company is into Gold Jewelry Exports, Gold Finance, Gold Mining, Solar Energy, and also into Gold refining. It is a regular dividend paying company and should give good returns going forward. 

Sensex, Nifty eke out small gains

21-Mar-14: Key benchmark indices registered with small gains after moving in a narrow range in intraday trade. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, garnered 13.66 points or 0.06%, off about 115 points from the day's high and up close to 25 points from the day's low. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was positive.

The Sensex has risen 633.63 points or 3% in this month so far (till 21 March 2014). The Sensex has risen 583.07 points or 2.75% so far in calendar 2014 (till 21 March 2014). From a 52-week low of 17,448.71 on 28 August 2013, the Sensex has risen 4,305.04 points or 24.67%. From a record high of 22,040.72 on Tuesday, 18 March 2014, the Sensex has lost 286.97 points or 1.3%.

Coming back to today's trade, tyre stocks jumped, with Apollo Tyres, CEAT and MRF hitting record high. Metal and mining stocks edged higher on renewed buying.

The market edged higher in early trade on firm Asian stocks. The Sensex trimmed initial gains in morning trade. The Sensex regained positive zone soon after sliding into the red for a brief period in mid-morning trade. Key benchmark indices moved in a narrow range in positive zone in early afternoon trade. Key benchmark indices hovered in positive zone in afternoon trade. A bout of volatility was witnessed as key benchmark indices trimmed gains in mid-afternoon trade.

The stock exchanges are conducting a special live trading session tomorrow, 22 March 2014, as the National Stock Exchange (NSE) is testing its software. Trading will take place from 11:15 IST to 12:45 IST.

The S&P BSE Sensex garnered 13.66 points or 0.06% to settle at 21,753.75, its highest closing level since 19 March 2014. The index jumped 130.02 points at the day's high of 21,870.11 in early trade. The index fell 10.19 points at the day's low of 21,729.90 in afternoon trade.

The CNX Nifty garnered 10.10 points or 0.16% to settle at 6,493.20, its highest closing level since 19 March 2014. The index hit a high of 6,522.90 in intraday trade. The index hit a low of 6,485.70 in intraday trade.

The BSE Mid-Cap index garnered 54.64 points or 0.81% at 6,769.74. The BSE Small-Cap index garnered 58.44 points or 0.87% at 6,785.11. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 9676 crore, which was much higher than Rs 2386.55 crore on Thursday, 20 March 2014, as the government sold 9% stake in Axis bank in a block deal on BSE today, 21 March 2014.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was positive. On BSE, 1,579 shares rose and 1,257 shares fell. A total of 142 shares were unchanged.

Pharma stocks were mixed. Cipla (up 0.16%) and Ranbaxy Laboratories (up 0.2%) gained. Dr Reddy's Laboratories (down 0.13%) and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (down 1.68%) declined.

Lupin rose 0.45% after the company announced during market hours that its US subsidiary -- Lupin Pharmaceuticals Inc. -- has launched its Niacin Extended‐Release Tablets USP, 500 mg, 750 mg, 1000 mg strengths having received final approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Thursday, 20 March 2014. Lupin's Niacin Extended‐Release Tablets USP, 500 mg, 750 mg, 1000 mg strengths are the AB‐rated generic equivalent of AbbVie Inc.'s Niaspan Tablets 500 mg, 750 mg, 1000 mg and used with diet to reduce elevated TC, LDL‐C, Apo B and TG levels, and to increase HDL‐C in patients with primary hyperlipidemia and mixed dyslipidemia. Niaspan Tablets had annual US sales of approximately $1 billion (IMS MAT Dec, 2013).

Commenting on the approval, Mr. Nilesh Gupta, Managing Director, Lupin said: We are happy to launch this product having received approval from the FDA yesterday. The launch bears testimony to our commitment to serving our customers and patients by bringing high quality, affordable medicines to the market.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) lost 2.2% to Rs 885.75. The stock hit high of Rs 913.70 and low of Rs 882.55. RIL's weightage in FTSE indices will reportedly fall when the index provider rejigs the composition of its benchmarks after the close of markets today, 21 March 2014.

RIL in video recorded Hindi transcript uploaded on YouTube has denied allegations of benefits from the Gujarat government.

Index heavyweight and cigarette maker ITC rose 0.49% to Rs 357.65 in volatile trade. The stock hit high of Rs 358.70 and low of Rs 352.70.

IT stocks edged higher after positive US economic data overnight. The US is the biggest outsourcing market for the Indian IT firms.

Wipro surged 3.09% at Rs 567.95. The scrip hit high of Rs 577.10 and low of Rs 554.45.

IT major Infosys rose 0.07%. The company said after market hours on Thursday, 20 March 2014, that Mr. Chandra Shekar Kakal, Senior Vice President & Member of the Executive Council, has conveyed his intention to resign from the services of the company.

TCS rose 0.83%, with the stock extending Thursday's 3.28% gain. The company after market hours on Wednesday, 19 March 2014, announced the go-live of a new maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) application programme with PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (Garuda Indonesia Airlines), Indonesia's national airline, via its aircraft maintenance subsidiary GMF Aeroasia.

HCL Technologies (up 1.35%) and Oracle Financial Services Software (up 0.62%), edged higher. Tech Mahindra declined 0.7%.

Auto stocks edged higher. Maruti Suzuki India (up 0.54%), Tata Motors (up 2.38%), and Ashok Leyland (up 4.52%) edged higher.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) declined 0.8%. The company on Thursday, 20 March 2014, said that the United States District Court in Atlanta, USA, issued an order on 14 March 2014 denying the plaintiffs' motion for class certification in a lawsuit brought by US automobile dealers against M&M. The plaintiffs in Ackerman vs. Mahindra & Mahindra, Ltd. took legal action against M&M based on agreements they had made with Global Vehicles USA, Inc., a former distributor for the company. The plaintiffs sought to represent all dealers who entered into agreements with Global Vehicles to sell Mahindra vehicles in the United States. The court concluded that a number of factual and legal issues regarding dealer claims must be resolved on a case-by-case basis, and that this case was inappropriate for class certification. M&M said that this court order is a significant achievement for the company in its defense of these claims, as these claims can now proceed in litigation only on an individual basis. M&M is pleased with this result, and remains convinced that the dealer claims brought against it in this and other suits have no merit, the company said in a statement.

Shares of most two wheeler makers gained. Bajaj Auto rose 0.51%. Hero MotoCorp fell 1.94%.

TVS Motor Company jumped 3.21% to Rs 96.40 after scaling a record high of Rs 100.65 in intraday trade.

Most bank stocks edged higher. Among private sector banks, HDFC Bank (up 0.42%) and Federal Bank (up 2.26%) gained. ICICI Bank (down 0.16%), Yes Bank (down 0.46%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 0.96%) declined.

Axis Bank edged higher in choppy trade amid huge volumes on reports that the government has sold about 4.22 crore shares, constituting a 9% stake in India's third-largest private-sector bank by assets, via block deals on BSE today, 21 March 2014. The stock rose 2.69% to Rs 1,393.40. The scrip hit high of Rs 1,410.60 and low of Rs 1,313.25. On BSE, 5.26 crore shares changed hands on the counter, compared with average daily volume of 2.46 lakh shares in the past one quarter.

The government holds stake in Axis Bank via a trust fund called Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (SUUTI). The share sale was launched on Thursday, 20 March 2014, in the indicative price band of roughly Rs 1,290 to Rs 1,357 per share. As on 31 December 2013, SUUTI's total holding in Axis Bank stood at 9.72 crore shares, constituting 20.72% stake.

Axis Bank's weightage in FTSE indices will reportedly increase when the index provider rejigs the composition of its benchmarks after the close of markets today, 21 March 2014.

Among PSU bank stocks, Punjab National Bank (up 1.38%), State Bank of India (SBI) (up 1.47%), Union Bank of India (up 1.26%), Bank of India (up 0.7%) and Bank of Baroda (up 2.67%) gained.

Canara Bank rose 0.21% after the bank said after market hours on Thursday, 20 March 2014, that as per the powers delegated by the board of the bank, the Bond Committee has decided to raise additional capital of Rs 1000 crore through issue of BASEL-III complaint Tier-II Bonds (Series-II). The bank has received reaffirmation of rating AAA/Stable (pronounced 'CRISIL Triple A rating with Stable Outlook') from CRISIL and confirmation of rating '[ICRA] AAA (hyb)' (Pronounced ICRA Triple A Hybrid with Stable Outlook) from ICRA for the proposed issue of the bonds, Canara Bank said.

Realty stocks edged higher. DLF (up 2.39%), Housing Development Infrastructure (HDIL) (up 5.16%), D B Realty (up 1.07%), and Unitech (up 3.17%) gained.

Metal and mining stocks gained. Sesa Sterlite (up 1.53%), Hindustan Zinc (up 0.62%), Jindal Steel & Power (up 1.68%), Hindalco Industries (up 3.31%), Hindustan Copper (up 4.31%), JSW Steel (up 3.67%), Tata Steel (up 3.43%), Steel Authority of India (SAIL) (up 3.35%) and National Aluminum Company (up 2.15%) edged higher. NMDC fell 2.05%.

Tyre stocks surged. Goodyear India (up 2.37%) and JK Tyre & Industries (up 8.49%) gained.

CEAT surged 13.87% to Rs 436 after hitting a record high of Rs 444.90 in intraday trade.

Apollo Tyres gained 4.47% to Rs 143.60 after hitting a record high of Rs 143.80 in intraday trade.

MRF gained 4.03% to Rs 22,300 after hitting a record high of Rs 22,448.90 in intraday trade.

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged higher against the dollar on optimism a recovering economy will lure inflows even as the US Federal Reserve keeps cutting stimulus. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 60.92, compared with its close of 61.34/35 on Thursday, 20 March 2014.

Government bond prices rose after Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan said that the central bank has not yet moved to an inflation target, and was still exploring the suggestions on the subject drafted by a panel with the government. A panel headed by Reserve Bank of India deputy governor Urjit Patel recommended in January moving to an inflation target, with an aim to eventually bring down consumer-price based inflation to 4% with a 2% band on either side. We haven't moved to inflation targeting as yet, Rajan said at an event in Mumbai today, 21 March 2014. The yield on 10-year benchmark federal paper, 8.83% GS 2023, was hovering at 8.7955%, lower than its close of 8.8188% on Thursday, 20 March 2014. Bond yields and bond prices move in opposite direction.

The Reserve Bank of India will announce the First Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2014-15 on 1 April 2014. Citing price pressures, the Reserve Bank of India raised its key lending rates by 25 basis points after Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 on 28 January 2014.

The next major trigger for the stock market is the outcome of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Lok Sabha elections will be held between 7 April 2014 and 12 May 2014 in nine phases. The counting of votes will be take place on 16 May 2014. The term of the current Lok Sabha expires on June 1 and the new House has to be constituted by May 31. Along with the Lok Sabha election, Andhra Pradesh (AP), including the regions comprising Telangana, Odisha and Sikkim will go to polls to elect new assemblies. AP, Odisha and Sikkim assemblies come to end on June 2, June 7 and May 7 respectively.

European stocks edged higher on Friday, 21 March 2014, in line with firm Asian stocks and overnight gains in US stocks. Key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were up 0.38% to 0.53%.

Britain posted a larger-than-forecast budget deficit in February as government spending increased at its fastest annual pace for almost a year. Expenditure exceeded revenue by 9.3 billion pounds ($15.3 billion), compared with 9.2 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London today.

Greece's credit rating was maintained at six steps below investment grade by Standard & Poor's, which said the country's debt remains large even as its government's fiscal performance improves. The country's long-term local currency debt was kept at B-, with a stable outlook, S&P said in a statement. Steps the Greek government has taken to strengthen the institutional framework and improve policy effectiveness have enhanced external and fiscal performance, the New York-based rating company said. Greece's external vulnerabilities persist given its high level of external debt, deflating economy, and limited monetary flexibility.

Asian stocks edged higher on Friday, 21 March 2014, with investor sentiment boosted by overnight gains in US stocks. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia and South Korea were up 0.03% to 2.72%. In Taiwan, Taiwan Weighted index fell 0.23%. The Japanese stock market was closed for a holiday.

HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics' gauge of Chinese manufacturing will be released on Monday, 24 March 2014.

China equity funds had a record outflow of $1.5 billion for the week ended 19 March 2014, of which $1.3 billion came from exchange-traded funds, according to reports.

The China Beige Book survey, published by New York-based CBB International, signaled the nation's economy slowed this quarter, with industries including retail and mining showing weaker revenue growth. Loans through non-traditional channels became more expensive, it said.

China's cabinet said this week it will speed up construction projects and other measures to support the economy after data showed moderating growth in industrial production and investment. The government is targeting 7.5% growth this year, which would be the slowest pace since 1990.

Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could advance 43 points at the opening bell on Friday, 21 March 2014. US stocks rose on Thursday, 20 March 2014, as reports on leading indicators and regional manufacturing fueled optimism in the economy, overshadowing concern that interest rates may rise in the middle of next year.

The Conference Board's gauge of the US economic outlook for the next three to six months climbed 0.5% in February, the biggest gain since November, data showed. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing gauge rose to 9.0 in March from minus 6.3 the prior month. Separate data showed purchases of previously owned homes declined in February to the lowest level since July 2012.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next undertakes monetary policy review at a two-day meeting on 29-30 April 2014. The Federal Reserve on 19 March 2014 said after the conclusion of a monetary policy review that it will trim its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion. The Federal Reserve will end its bond-buying program before the end of the year with an interest-rate increase likely to follow in around six months, Chair Janet Yellen said on 19 March 2014. Quarterly Fed forecasts on 19 March 2014 showed more officials predicting that the benchmark interest rate, now close to zero, will rise to at least 1% by the end of 2015 and 2.25% a year later.

Fitch Ratings today, 21 March 2014, affirmed the United States' credit ratings at AAA with a stable outlook, removing the distant danger that it might downgrade the world's largest economy. The action resolves the negative watch that Fitch had placed on the United States back in October, when political wrangling over the debt ceiling had raised the risk of default. Fitch's sensitivity analysis does not currently anticipate developments with a material likelihood, individually or collectively, of leading to a rating downgrade, it said in a statement. Fitch said the latest crisis over the debt limit had not adversely affected US Treasury yields or the appetite of foreign investors for the debt. Therefore Fitch does not believe the role of the US dollar, sovereign financing flexibility or debt tolerance has been materially damaged, it said.

Fitch noted the United States had greater debt tolerance than other triple-A peers owing to the unparalleled financing flexibility provided by being the issuer of the world's reserve currency and benchmark fixed-income asset. Strong fiscal consolidation has been achieved, the agency added. It expected the US budget deficit to decline to 2.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the 2014 fiscal year, from 4% in fiscal 2013 and 6.7% in 2012. But Fitch cautioned there were still risks to the ratings outlook, including if authorities failed to address rising expenditure pressures from an ageing population and higher interest rates later in the decade.

Russia's credit rating outlook was cut to negative by Fitch Ratings, citing the potential impact on a slowing economy of widening US and European Union sanctions imposed as it absorbs Ukraine's Crimea region. Fitch followed a similar move by Standard & Poor's yesterday. Both companies affirmed the former Soviet republic at BBB, the second-lowest investment grade, on par with Brazil.

US President Barack Obama raised the stakes in an East-West confrontation over Crimea on Thursday by targeting some of Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest long-time political and business allies with personal sanctions. The extension of visa bans and asset freezes into Putin's inner circle came as Moscow rushed to consolidate the annexation of the Black Sea peninsula, seized from Ukraine last month, and to boost its military presence in the region.

Russian troops took over three Ukrainian warships in Crimea on Thursday, using stun grenades in one incident. Kiev also said it had begun withdrawing its border guards, surrounded and outnumbered by Russian forces, from Crimea to the mainland.

Successful legal challenges against European Union (EU) sanctions over the past year have made the bloc wary of taking aggressive actions against Russian businessmen and companies as it works to contain Moscow's ambitions in Ukraine. EU leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday, 20 March 2014, agreed to apply asset freezes and visa bans on 12 more Russian officials, but stopped short of penalizing any powerful oligarchs or companies. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said legal concerns were the main reason leaders had avoided targeting people outside Russia's political and military circles. We in Europe are bound to having an obvious connection to Crimea-i.e. the offense that is at the base of the sanctions. That's a different legal situation from the US, she told journalists after the meeting. Concerns over legal challenges to EU sanctions have increased over the past year after the bloc's courts struck down financial sanctions against several individuals and companies.

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