Thursday, October 16, 2014

Mumbai CCTV project attracts two bids
[Editor: Who will get this lucrative project (worth Rs.1,000 crore), in Mumbai is a big question. What about Allied Digital Services Ltd? Is it still in the loop or has withdrawn from the same? Allied Digital Services Ltd, is implementing a similar project (installation of CCTV Cameras) in Pune (Poona), Maharashtra. To get answers to such questions, you can either join the Paid Service or you can trade through my recommended brokerage house/s]
Photo: DNA India
MUMBAI, Sep 25, 2014: After three false starts, there are two new offers from technology majors to set up over 6,000 CCTV cameras across the city.

"L&T and Trimax have submitted bids and their technical evaluation is done," a home department official said. "Once the report of the technical scrutiny committee arrives, the financial bid will be opened by the high-powered committee led by chief secretary Swadheen Kshatriya."

IIT-Bombay professors are part of the technical scrutiny committee.

Previous tendering attempts had got stuck, with the last one in November stumbling because companies expressed difficulty in meeting the bid document conditions.

The official said the government had now made its revenue model more liberal.

PM Narendra Modi Launches Major Labour Reform Schemes: Top 10 Developments
[Editor: Narendra Modi says, "Shramev Jayate (labour triumphs) has the same power as Satyamev Jayate (truth triumphs) does for the development of our nation."Labour problems, "he said, must be seen through the eyes of the shramik (worker) not industrialists." So, are we talking of Narendra Modi suddenly becoming a COMMUNIST? Or he is totally confused, in this case too, like in many earlier instances? A person who is only interested in winning elections and getting votes by hook and crook, is bound to make this kind of one-sided comment. Meanwhile, FIIs have turned BEARISH on the Indian markets---today, i.e. on 16-Oct-2014, they were net sellers to the tune of Rs.1128.37 Cr. In fact the policies of Narendra Modi has been a total flop show, till now. After a series of overseas tours that took him to Japan and the U.S., he was was seen working overtime to canvass for his party in the states due for election. The question is: how would he get any work done for the country from his office in New Delhi?]
NEW DELHI, October 16, 2014:  Prime Minister Narendra Modi has unveiled long-awaited labour reforms, emphasising that "ease of business is essential to the success of 'Make in India,' his government's mega plan to turn India into a manufacturing hub.
  • The measures announced today simplify employment rules and smooth the way for people to move social security funds when they change jobs. They also provide for an improved pension and minimum salary grade.
  • The PM said, "Shramev Jayate (labour triumphs) has the same power as Satyamev Jayate (truth triumphs) does for the development of our nation." Labour problems, "he said, must be seen through the eyes of the shramik (worker) not industrialists."
  • Archaic labour laws have strictly regulated hiring and firing, while an onerous "Inspector raj' or rule of inspectors has deluged employers with paperwork, discouraging them from expanding and taking on new staff.
  • "Fifty types of departments chase them, 50 types of forms have to be filled in. The world has changed," Mr Modi said, adding that companies would now only need to fill a single form online.  A new website, managed by the labour ministry, will allow companies to fill forms online and raise their grievances.
  • The change would chiefly benefit firms that employ just a few employees, he said. In 2009, 84 percent of India's manufacturing workers were employed by firms with fewer than 50 workers, research by the Asian Development Bank shows.
  • Mr Modi also promised easier movement of accounts in the Provident Fund scheme by using a universal account number. The payroll-funded programme has 80 million members.
  • Because transfers are so difficult, more than Rs. 27,000 crores ($4.4 billion) lie idle in such accounts. "I need to return this money to the poor," the prime minister said. "The world asks, 'What is Modi's vision?' They will see it in this effort," he said.
  • Inspection of businesses will be made more transparent, with a computer lottery being used to pick the enterprises to be inspected and officials required to upload a report within 72 hours, PM Modi said. Right now, units for inspection are selected locally, without any objective criteria, allowing inspectors to harass unit owners and even exploit them in cases of violation of rules.
  • The World Bank says India has one of the world's most rigid labour markets, but fears of a trade union backlash and partisan politics have deterred successive governments from reform measures. Business leaders have high hopes that Mr Modi, an advocate of smaller government and private enterprise, will change that.
  • Industry body ASSOCHAM said it complimented the "government for initiating the labour law reforms as it will create a conducive environment for growth of trade and Industry and bring transparency in social security benefits to help workers."

Courtesy: NDTV Ltd
Infrastructure bars India’s growth path
[Editor: Narendra Modi is an over-inflated balloon, waiting to burst at any time. If it was not for Rahul Gandhi (...someone said his speech comes in POGO Channel) and the RSS (or say in short, "Sangh Parivar"), demagogues like Narendra Modi, would have NEVER reached Delhi. India should have a new Prime Minister and a Finance Minister, as both of them are totally flop till now. However as long as sycophants and blind fans are there, he could be assured of victory in elections] 
Whenever Air India cancels its flight to Delhi from Kullu Manali in the foothills of the Himalayas – as it often does – it leaves passengers facing a 600km journey over monsoon-damaged but unrepaired roads, which takes 14 hours. There are many conspiracy theories as to why Air India cancels the flight so often – and why a successful air taxi service from Chandigarh, halfway between the two points, failed to get its licence renewed. Most of these theories cite a blend of corruption and incompetence.

Many in India had hoped that the election of a new prime minister might bring about some rapid improvements in infrastructure investment – to the benefit of business that rely on it. But, less than five months after Narendra Modi’s stunning victory at the polls, hope is being tempered by harsh realities on the pockmarked ground. Already the stock market euphoria has faded into three straight weeks of market losses.

This year was supposed to be one in which fixed investment in the country began to rise again, after a virtually flat 2013. However, the investment climate remains inhospitable and the cost of capital way too high despite the exhortations from the prime minister’s office. Investment growth in the third quarter was up a mere 0.4 per cent while, in September, capital goods output fell 18 per cent, month-on-month, according to JPMorgan.

KKR, which has a big stake in Dalmia Cement (Bharat), is feeling the effects – or, rather, the lack of them. It reports no improvement in orders. And what is true for cement is true for steel and other industries that should be harbingers of a commitment to large-scale investment.

Mr Modi is right to aspire to expand the country’s manufacturing industry. Today, manufacturing as a percentage of Indian GDP is a mere 15 per cent – less than half what it is in China. Even in Indonesia, which has generally failed to move up the value-added chain, it is 24 per cent.

Unlike the rapidly ageing countries of East Asia, India does at least have a young population and low wages. In recent years, many of its people have also become more mobile, and able to migrate to major cities – especially Mumbai – from poorer states.

So, at first glance, India should be the biggest beneficiary of rising wages in China. But this does not seem to be the case, possibly for two reasons. One is the fact that the conditions that gave rise to the East Asian model of export-driven growth are radically different from those in India. But the other is that it may be too late for India to emulate that growth model, even if it wished to.

Both Japan and China kept the cost of capital artificially low to subsidise industry at the expense of consumption. India has been the antithesis of that model. Demand for cement and steel is depressed, capital goods production is falling – but sales of motor scooters and cars are holding up relatively well.

Perhaps most significantly, though, East Asia prioritised the infrastructure needed to make manufacturing possible.

When capital was cheap a few years ago, and the whole world had emerging market fever, India could have got its infrastructure act together – and cheaply. It failed to do so. Today, the roads are a disaster, but hardly the only disaster. Power remains in deficit for many states – including the mountain states where hydro power should be plentiful and cheap. Most infrastructure companies remain under pressure, their balance sheets overleveraged and the banks reluctant to extend more credit to them.

These companies are also operating in a world that is less benign. Global trade has been flat for some time, making exports more of a zero-sum game. If anything, there is too much manufacturing capacity, which is why the prices of manufactured goods are under downward pressure.

India has some competitive advantages, notably where there is a large component of engineering, say in manufacturing certain car parts. But the low wages of its workers aren’t enough to compensate for the high cost of capital, the low productivity, the impossible delays on the roads and at the airports, the lack of power, and the incalculable cost of corruption as many businesses shut down rather than pay off the bureaucrats and officials.

India is about to celebrate Diwali, the festival of light. But at the moment, as on the long drive from Kullu Manali to Delhi, the light remains disappointingly dim.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Market Mantra
Pipavav Defence and Offshore Eng Ltd is doing well today, with the stock almost hitting the Upper Circuits Intra-day. The scrip  touched a high of Rs.45.30 intra-day and is now trading at Rs.44.5. The momentum is very strong in the counter and I would not be surprised if the scrip hits another Buyer Freeze today also.
Gitanjali Gems Ltd have started to move up. Today it touched an intra-day high of Rs.62.95 and is now trading at Rs.62.30. We could see a rally in Gold based stocks before Deepawali. 
Etegra Ltd which was recommended to some of  my close friends, last week at around Rs.3.35, today high another buyer freeze at Rs.3.48, in the BSE. 
Today's call (to the Premium Groups): Buy J P Power Ventures Ltd at Rs.12.50, for a target of Rs.17. The scrip seems to have formed a base around Rs.12.10--12.40. Meanwhile, the Finance ministry officials will meet on Friday to explore ways to get stalled power projects back on track and to help prevent them from becoming non-performing assets for banks. Recently, there were also media report that, in its third attempt to strike a deal for its power assets, Jaypee Group inked a binding pact with Sajjan Jindal-led JSW Energy for selling three projects, including two hydel plants. The announcement came after Jaiprakash Power’s proposed sale of three hydro projects to Reliance Power had earlier fallen through. “JSW Energy Ltd (JSW) and Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd (JPVL), announced the signing of binding memorandum of understanding (MoU), for the 100 per cent acquisition by JSW of three operational plants of JPVL,” the companies had said in similarly-worded statements. The plants are — 300-MW Baspa-II Hydro Electric Plant, 1,091 MW Karcham Wangtoo Hydro Electric Plant and 500 MW Bina Thermal Power Plant, it added. 
The Indian Stock Markets are witnessing high volatility, near the crucial support of 7800--a rise above 8000 may trigger a fresh rally. Nifty is now trading at 7889, which is just above the immediate support of 7850. Share indices are trading in a cautious note ahead of Maharashtra elections, due tomorrow, i.e. 15th October, 2014. However, many analysts are not expecting too much downside from here, as data on India's consumer price index-based inflation hit a record low in September, 2014. Also, the much expected Deepawali Rally is on the cards. 

Monday, October 13, 2014

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
Pipavav Defence and Offshore Eng Ltd, a Nikhil Gandhi company hit the 3rd consecutive buyer freeze today. The stock was recommended around Rs.38.75, a few weeks back. The scrip after giving a break out is moving up continuously; today it closed above its 21D SMA and EMA. 
Gitanjali Gems Ltd was given a buy call today at Rs.61.90, after my sources confirmed of its bright future outlook. The company has taken a number of measures to revamp its operations. Besides, falling international gold prices and the subsequent correction in India, could give a surge in demand for the yellow metal. Some analysts expect, that gold prices this Diwali could hit 3 year low. In May 2014, RBI eased import restrictions on Gold. The central bank permitted private agencies and banks to provide gold loans to the sector. But, the government has not lowered the import duty which is at 10%. According to The Indian Express, October 12, 2014:

Much to the delight of jewellers, Indian consumers are making a scramble for gold in the build-up to Diwali on October 23 after a lacklustre festive season last year.
Sales of gold jewellery and coins in October so far have accelerated in the range of 15-25 per cent more than a year before, although it is still early to firm up a precise forecast of demand this Diwali and Dhanteras, considered auspicious for the precious metal purchases. “After months of slowdown, things are finally beginning to look up,” a spokesperson for Tanishq, the country’s largest jewellery chain, said. “All the purchases that people had postponed are finally being made,” he said, adding that lower gold rates in recent days had helped accelerate demand.
B F Utilities Ltd, which was recommended around Rs.129-130, today closed at  Rs.647.15, up 18.31%. Intra-day, it hit the Upper Circuits at Rs.656.40. The stock earlier hit an all time high of Rs.817.95, in between.
IVRCL Ltd as was expected did  not break Rs.16, on the downside--some inputs were sent to the PAID GROUPS yesterday. Now, with September CPI inflation declining to 6.46% and vegetable inflation falling to 8.59%, the scrips in the infrastructure/road construction sector, could stage a comeback. 

Sunday, October 12, 2014

P Chidambaram advises against lifting curbs on gold imports
[Editor: Narendra Modi and some of his partners who made lot of noise during the UPA rule regarding import restrictions on GOLD are tamely following the UPA government's policies; after they assumed office, following a landslide victory in the last (2014) Lok Sabha Elections. This is called U-turn. The current NDA government under the leadership of Narendra Modi has become famous for such outlandish somersaults. Meanwhile, though the bullion trade has asked the Government to recognise a body of its representatives to discuss its issues--nothing much has happened in this front. “Currently, the Centre is discussing our issues with the jewellery body which has no understanding of our problems,” said Satish Bansal, Managing Director, MD Overseas Ltd. “The 80:20 scheme has forced bullion traders to turn exporters,” he said. According to Prithiviraj Kothari, Managing Director, Riddhi Siddhi Bullions, the Centre should replace the scheme with a quota or a licensing system like in China. In China, only nine banks and some People Bank of China-owned coin companies have the right to import and export gold. The bullion trade also wants the Customs duty cut gradually to 4 per cent. It has also urged the Centre to raise the gold brought by non-resident Indians to 5 kg. The restrictions are perceived to have increased, the instances of smuggling. But India's commerce minister, Nirmala Sitharaman says, "I cannot say that gold smuggling has increased because of hike in import duty. CAD has come down, but there is no thought to lower the import duty immediately".  It therefore, remains to be seen when we will start to see innovative policies from Narendra Modi and his team of "COPY-PASTE-MASTERS"]
Mumbai, Oct 12, 2014: Former finance minister P Chidambaram has advocated against lifting of curbs on gold imports, saying the benefits accruing from restrictions would far outweigh problems like spurt in smuggling.

"No. Not in my view," Chidambaram, who initiated these measures as the Finance Minister in the previous UPA regime in the face of a record high current account deficit (CAD), over the weekend when asked whether the time was ripe to withdraw the curbs.

The senior Congress leader was in the city to campaign in Maharashtra Assembly polls.

The CAD, which is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign exchange, had touched an all-time high of $88.2 billion or 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2012-13.

The high current account deficit had led to the rupee plummeting to its all-time low of 68.80 in August last year.

On concerns like a spurt in smuggling activities, which had otherwise been checked after liberalisation, Chidambaram said the benefits of the gold import curbs are too big.

In wake of the high gold imports affecting current account deficit, the previous government had hiked the import duty on gold three times to 10 per cent and also compelled importers to export a sizeable part of the commodity under the 80:20 rule.

However, during this fiscal, there was some clarification in the 80:20 rule after a massive reduction in CAD.
According to some estimates, 200 tonnes of the precious metal will be imported into the country in the calendar year 2014.

There has been a jump in gold smuggling cases registered by enforcement agencies.

When asked if it is fair to artificially reduce CAD, Chidambaram said, "What else to do? There is no other way. I agree that CAD should be reduced by exports, but it won't happen overnight. Can we afford to spend $50 billion on gold imports? We cant afford it."

Chidambaram agreed that in the long-term, we should focus on pushing exports to reduce CAD but at the moment the country is left will little option.

Talking about international rating agency S&P's outlook upgrade on India, Chidambaram said that this was due to the handsome growth rate of 5.7 per cent in the first quarter.

Courtesy: IBN Live

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Banks to Release Rs. 650 Crore to ABG Shipyard Soon Under CDR Deal
[Editor: This factor is likely to have a positive impact on its subsidiary company, Western India Shipyard Ltd (Rs.1.82) to shore up its bottomline]
September 10, 2014;Private sector shipbuilder ABG Shipyard, which is under a CDR, will receive Rs. 650 crore infusion from lenders by this month-end as part of the Rs. 10,000-crore debt recast deal worked out in March, a top company official has said.

The Surat-headquartered company is confident of successfully getting out of the corporate debt restructuring cell in two years, its executive director and chief financial officer Dhananjay Datar told reporters here late last evening.

The company has convinced the 22-bank consortium led by State Bank, which had two specific reservations, and has got sanction for release of the money, he said.

On the banks' demand for pledge of shares by promoters, Mr Datar said ABG has promised that promoters will be pledging their 68 per cent holding in the company by March 2015.

It can be noted that in late March, a group of 22 banks led by State Bank had cleared the recast of Rs. 10,000 crore in loans advanced to the troubled shipbuilder under the corporate debt restructuring (CDR) process, making it the second biggest loan recast in recent times.

Under CDR, around Rs. 2,500 crore worth of long-term loans and Rs. 7,000 crore of working capital loans were restructured with a two-year moratorium for interest payment.

Courtesy: NDTV Profit

Friday, October 10, 2014

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company Limited hit the buyer freeze in the mid-afternoon trade. ICICI Bank has given a target of Rs.80, for the scrip in its August, 2014 report. 
Nifty today tanked more than 100 points due to global cues and also as August IIP disappointed. Meanwhile, the FIIs have turned bearish, according to the Economic Times. Yesterday following was sent to the Premium Group members: The inability of the bulls to hold above 8000 mark attracted selling in market and  Nifty closed below 7900 for the first time (couple of days back), in the last two months period. This is a sign of weakness. I hope those Paid Members who shorted the Nifty yesterday made money today. As long as India does not have a good Prime Minister and  Finance Minister this would continue to happen. Narendra Modi, till now have proved to be utter failure. His government has been copying the policies of the UPA government--some of which they criticized during their time. Narenda Modi, should leave the centre and go to Gujarat once again. 
Western India Shipyard Ltd: A clear buy
CMP: Rs.1.91
Kindly observe who are holding positions in the  company and by what proportions. The scrip is expected to become Multi-bagger in the coming days, as the restructuring money from the ABG Shipyard Ltd is likely to flow in the company in the coming days. The next target is Rs.5.

Thursday, October 09, 2014

Updates on some of my recommendations
1. Granules India Ltd, was recommended around Rs.110-112.50.
The scrip touched an all time high around Rs.940.55 on 22/09/2014 (on my birthday). 
2. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX Ltd) was recommended around Rs.255-270. The scrip made a high of high of Rs.895, on 21/07/2014.
3. B F Utilities Ltd was recommended around Rs.129-130. The scrip made a high of Rs.817.95 on 22/07/2014.
4. Mannapuram Finance Ltd was recommended around Rs.15.50--17.70. The scrip made a high of Rs.31.60  on 19/09/2014.
5. Opto Circuits Ltd was recommended around Rs.25.50-26. The scrip made a high of Rs.44.50 on 22/05/2014.
6. HCC Ltd was recommended around Rs.12.70-12.80. The scrip made a  high of Rs.49 on  01/07/2014.
7. P C Jeweler Ltd was recommended below Rs.88. The scrip made a high of Rs.278 on 23/09/2014.
8. Sarda Energy and Minerals Ltd was recommended around Rs.107.60. The scrip made a high of Rs.402.60 on 21/08/2014.
9. A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Services Ltd was recommended around Rs.11.45. The scrip made a high of Rs.36.40 on 25/07/2014.
10. Prakash Industries Ltd was recommended around Rs.49-50. The scrip made a high of Rs.123 on 21/07/2014.

These are some of scrips which gave good returns to the investors over a period, apart from others like IVRCL Ltd, Entegra Ltd, SBTL, Gitanjali Gems Ltd, IRB Infrastructure Ltd, Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd, etc. 

Today, while Pipavav Defence Ltd (Rs.39.15) and Resurgere Mines and Minerals Ltd (Rs.1.65) hit the buyer freezes; Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.63.15) also closed above some crucial levels. 

Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company last year announced a new order for offshore vessels from a European client. The order was worth Rs.595 crore with an option to supply two more specialised vessels valued at Rs.1200 crore. The global market for specialised offshore vessels stands at US$10 billion. The company, with its well diversified order book among the defence, commercial and offshore segments, intend to focus on the defence and offshore vessel segment. The defence segment holds around 50% of the order book followed by the commercial segment and offshore segment. New orders in the offshore segment coupled with repairs and maintenance orders augur well for the company as it reduces exposure to the commercial segment. Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company spanning over 861 acres of land with two dry docking facilities of 662 m x 65 m (Dry Dock-1) and 750 m x 60 m (Dry Dock-2 under construction) is one of the largest “modular” shipbuilding facilities in India. The shipyard is capable of accommodating 400,000 dwt capacity ships along with construction and repair of a wide range of vessels starting from coastal and naval vessels together with repair and fabrication of offshore platforms and rigs. It also has a dedicated offshore yard with 175 m x 16.89 m quay consisting of both launching and loading platform together with installation of bollard and mooring rings. 

Wednesday, October 08, 2014

Time for Govt to Relook at Gold Import Curbs
Photo: Jewel Origins
04th October 2014: Investment demand for gold in India has dropped by 67 per cent from a year earlier to 49.6 tonnes during the second quarter of 2014, according to the World Gold Council. At the same time there is a slide in global crude oil and gold prices, providing a reprieve on the current account deficit (CAD). This presents the government with an opportunity to ease the numerous gold import restrictions. 

It should seriously consider relaxing the 80:20 rule introduced last year to reduce gold imports, leading to an unwanted fallout—a spurt in gold smuggling. While raising the gold import duty in 2013 from four to 10 per cent the government had mandated that 20 per cent of the imported gold be exported. 

Allowing unhindered access to gold can help revive the `5 lakh crore gems and jewellery trade that employs 25 lakh workers. The resulting customs duty collections will provide a much-needed boost to central tax revenues.

With savers getting increasingly disenchanted with gold, this is also the ideal time for the government to double up its efforts to bring the idle gold, estimated at 25,000 tonnes, lying with Indian households, back into circulation through gold deposit schemes. A proactive approach to motivating those keeping huge hoards of gold in lockers can make a major impact at this stage if the schemes are attractive and well-directed. This is a time for imaginative schemes and for innovative solutions.

In the decade through 2013, when a series of economic crises rocked the global economy, gold miners seldom thought its prices would decline, as people typically tend to buy gold in times of uncertainty. But now, after gold fell sharply and equity markets rose of late, this view may be under intense scrutiny. An outperformance of assets like stocks and bonds over gold, globally, and prospects of a stronger dollar amid the US economic recovery have hit investment demand. Given the decline in prices hedging by producers could increase in coming days.

Courtesy: The New Indian Express
Winning Strokes: Think Different
IVRCL Ltd, which was recommended in this blog some days back around Rs.15-15.50, reached the first target of Rs.17 (Intra-day, Rs.17.35) yesterday. According to the Business Standard, October 8, 2014: Indian companies and banks have some reasons to cheer. Stalled projects are finally showing signs of traction, with the Modi government taking steps to revive those projects which were stuck due to policy paralysis and land acquisition problems. Therefore, the time has come to take a more bullish view on Infastructure stocks like IVRCL Ltd, HCC Ltd (Rs.31.20), IRB Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.220.45), etc. 
Gitanjali Gems Ltd today rose to Rs.64.20, before closing at Rs.63, in the BSE. During the last few months the company has taken lot of steps to revamp its operations. But, one thing which needs to be highlighted here is that: Gitanjali Gems Ltd having a face value of Rs.10, Book value Rs.287.39 and market cap of Rs.618.16 Cr is trading only at Rs.63, while Rajesh Exports Ltd of face value, Rs.1 (Not Rs.10), Book Value of Rs.88 (only) has a CMP of Rs.128.50. Moreover, the cash flows in 2013-14,  in the case of Gitanjali Gems Ltd is (negative) Rs.2,966 crore, while in case of Rajesh Exports it is (negative) Rs.2,629 crore. Therefore, it is strange why the share of Gitanjali Gems Ltd is trading at such a low price! Moreover, the silver jewelry exports from India surged by 84.80% year-on-year to touch $234.82 million (Rs.1,430.08 crores) during the month of August this year, while its gold jewelry exports too rose by 10.44% year-on-year to $634.46 million (Rs 3,863.85 crores), in accordance with the latest data released by the Gems and Jewelry Export Promotion Council (GJEPC). With a strong dollar currently depressing the precious metals prices, M Partners Mining Analyst Derek Macpherson believes that fundamentals will kick in eventually and bring prices back up--the dollar has rallied, putting pressure on gold and all other commodities. He further said: "I think we could flirt below $1,200/ounce, but I don't think we'll see an extended period of significantly lower gold prices. We're getting very close to the marginal cost of production for most producers. If that situation lasts for an extended period, mines are likely to start shutting down, and it could swing back to being a supply-and-demand story". Thus while low price of the yellow metal could increase the volume of sales, a sudden spike in the gold price, could also perk up the bottomlines of Jewelry companies. 
Resurgere Mines and Minerals Ltd yesterday closed flat at Rs.1.64 in the BSE, even though the SENSEX tanked by more than 296.02 points. This shows that the scrip has probably formed a permanent bottom and is preparing to move up.  
GLOBAL VECTRA HELICORP LTD (Rs.72.35) was jacked up by some MUMBAI (Bombay) based operators by floating some ROSY STORIES. Now the stock is hitting LOWER CIRCUITS almost on a regular basis. In fact the stock has been on the downtrend since it hit the 52-week high of Rs.93.30 from its low of Rs.9--with a NEGATIVE BOOK VALUE of Rs.6.02, don't get surprised if it falls below Rs.30.

Saturday, October 04, 2014

Indian gold demand strong ahead of Diwali as prices tumble – GOLD PHYSICALS 
Photo: Sify.com
[Editor: Meanwhile, the Gold prices fell below $1,200 an ounce for the first time this year on Friday as the dollar jumped after better-than expected US non-farm payroll data, which could bolster bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in mid-2015 or even earlier. Now according to statistics, any fall in bullion prices generally leads to a sharp jump in retail sales. Normally, jewellery demand from foreign importers rises in case of a fall in bullion prices. Jewellery demand from domestic consumers, too, rises during the festive season, which is going on. I expect jewellers’ sales in local markets to rise during the coming Diwali and wedding season and foreign markets during Christmas, New Year and Mothers’ Day. With this view in mind, GITANJALI GEMS LTD was recommended to the PAID GROUPS, at Rs.63.50--65, for a short term target of Rs.72-73]
October 3, 2014: Sentiment in the Indian gold market appears to have strengthened ahead of the Hindu festival of Diwali, with premiums once-again gaining momentum as a result of cheaper gold prices.

Demand throughout Navratri, a 10-day religious festival during which Indians buy luxury items such as gold that began on September 25th, was strong based on cheaper gold prices in the rupee of around 26,600 rupees per ounce.

Indian premiums are around $11-15 per ounce over spot for 1kg bars, up from $7-11 previously, market participants told FastMarkets. Further increases are expected in the lead-up to Diwali, the Indian festival of lights – typically a very busy period for the local gold market.

“Demand for gold in India is really picking up at the moment – despite depreciations in the rupee this week, rupee gold prices look healthy amid a generally cheaper gold price,” Chirag Sheth of Metals Focus said. “However, it would be foolish to try to compare the situation with last year, as it is a completely different environment now.”

Rupee gold has followed international prices lower. Spot gold was last at $1,206.20/1.207.70 per ounce, down $7.20 on Thursday’s close – it looks susceptible to falling to a fresh low this year should blockbuster US jobs data pressure it lower.

Deviating from most global trends in the current economic climate, the rupee has held its ground against a surging dollar over the last three months, where most emerging economies are struggling, with market participants apparently actively looking to keep the rupee above 60 against the dollar.

Buying ahead of Diwali will begin now, Sheth added, which is likely to push premiums higher as Dussehra – the final festival day of Navratri and which takes place today this year – draws to a close.

In China, meanwhile, the pick-up in demand expected throughout the Chinese Golden Week holiday, which runs until October 7, has been relatively low compared with previous years, sources said. Premiums in Shanghai remain low at $2-4 over the London spot price, down from $3-5 a week ago, traders said.

In other locations, the Hong Kong rate is up fractionally at $1.20-1.60, Singapore was quoted at $1.20-1.50, down from as much as $2.50 last week, and Dubai still relatively unchanged around $1.

(Editing by Mark Shaw)

Courtesy:  The Bullion Desk

Monday, September 29, 2014

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
Shares of Financial Technologies Ltd (Rs.228.30) surged to Rs.235, intra-day after the company stated that it concluded renegotiation of technology supply agreement with Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX). There was a big crash in it's share price after the NSEL scam. The stock, should be crossing Rs.300 in the coming days. In other words, Financial Technologies should come back to focus again after a re-agreement with MCX for technology supply.
IVRCL Ltd (Rs.15.85) was recommended today as a fresh buy at Rs.15-15.50, for a target of Rs.21. The scrip surged to Rs.16.30, intra-day. The company has an order book of  more than Rs.20, 000 crore and it is implementing the CDR package. 
Pipavav Defence and Offshore Eng Ltd today closed flat at Rs.38.40. According to the media reports, the government of India is mulling various options, which include lower bank interest rates, infrastructure status to shipyards, a separate fund and also special subsidy to shipbuilders who source raw material and parts locally. It is a company whose promoter is Nikhil Prataprai Gandhi, a person having very good rapport with Senior Ambani. Moreover, Nikhil Gandhi, chairman, Pipavav Shipyard told CNBC-TV18 at the beginning of this year, that the private ship-builder is in talks with a French company for a strategic stake sale. He says this partnership is primarily aimed to bring in the technological know-how and proprietary knowledge of military hardware into the country. The promoter stake after the deal might come down to 41% from 45% initially. SAAB AB of Sweden has already a stake in Pipavav. SAAB AB and the new partner, if the stake sale goes through, will together own 15 percent in the company, says Gandhi. The company has an order book of around Rs.12, 000 crore and is trading near the 52-week low price of Rs.30.55, hence the downside is limited. Besides, Rakesh Radheshyam Jhunjhunwala and Rekha Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, respectively holds 2.11% and 1.30% stake in the company. Also,  the uncertainty over the fate of subsidy payments for shipbuilders such as Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Co. Ltd, ABG Shipyard Ltd and Bharati Shipyard Ltd could lift soon, with the government looking to extend the payment timeline for a scheme which ended seven years ago.
Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.65.50) which got badly hammered, was recommended today at Rs.65, just a month ahead of Diwali. This is a sure shot recommendation for  a target of Rs.79-80, in the short term. Shares of jewellery makers should rise on expectations of pick up in sales in the festive season. Meanwhile, according to the Business Standard, September 3, 2014:  Amid expectations of a turnaround in global jewellery purchases and a revival in ornament exports, Indian diamond processors participated aggressively in the De Beers’ sightholders contract registration to ensure supply of rough diamonds till 2018. “The basic raw materials remain the same. Exports cannot decline beyond a point. Therefore, raw material surety is required. De Beers processes only 40-42 per cent of the rough diamonds they mine and, hence, Indian processors should take a long-term view,” said Sabyasachi Ray, executive director, GJEPC. Mehul Choksi, managing director of Gitanjali Gems, a De Beers’ sightholder, said the current fall in exports was a seasonal trend. “Exports decline in the July-August period. But so far, this year has been good. We anticipate the economic recovery in the US will yield positive results on jewellery exports,” he said. The US accounts for 38 per cent of global jewellery consumption.
My earlier recommended Genera Agri Ltd today rose by more than 15% and closed at Rs.8.24. The intra-day high for the scrip was Rs.8.48.
The Nifty has closed with a weekly loss of 152 points in the last week. On the other hand, the level of 7850 showed buying interest on Friday, from where the Nifty reversed as was expected. Today, the small cap index was strong since the start. 

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Pipavav Defence and Offshore Eng Ltd (PDO): Seems Temporary Bottom has been Formed
Company Overview:
1. Pipavav is India‟s first world class Defence, Ship Building & Offshore Infrastructure Company.

2. Pipavav is India‟s first private company to get License and Contracts to build warships for the Indian Navy.

3. Pipavav is the first company in the country to have been approved as a partner of choice by Mazagon Docks to build frontline warships, to help them liquidate their multi billion dollar contracts.

4. Pipavav owns the country‟s first and only Modular Shipbuilding Facility with the largest Dry Dock, armored with the country‟s first fully scalable and expansion accommodating capacity.

5. Pipavav owns the country‟s only facility capable of accommodating the largest Aircraft Carriers and other strategic vessels for docking, maintenance and repair.

6. Pipavav has an undisputed upper hand in terms of Infrastructure, Team on the ground and critical Technology & Strategic tie-ups.

Caution:
(i) Margins might continue to remain under pressure due to increased raw material cost.
(ii) Commercial order book execution remains under a cloud. 
(iii) Poor shipbuilding market has resulted into deteriorating revenues and profitability over the last few quarters for PDO. Order book on paper worth around Rs.12, 000 Cr looks strong, but a large part of the order book may be vulnerable to cancellation. 
(iv) Currently the shipbuilding market is precariously placed with: a) Demand levels falling below the construction capacity, 
b) Contract cancellations and 
c) Lack of financing options for buyers. 

Profitability of PDO might therefore, be under pressure due to poor shipbuilding market, high interest cost and increasing contingent liabilities. 

However, it can be compared with big yards in Japan and Korea as it has huge infrastructure and opportunities in defense. According to Live Mint, September, 23, 2014, the government of India, is likely to extend shipping subsidy period. The said Extension is likely to benefit shipyards that are still building ships under contracts signed when the scheme was on, and even for some which have already delivered ships but awaiting subsidy 

Kotak Securities in its June 25, 2014 research report has said that the company is planning to raise around $150 million through a listing on the London Stock Exchange or a strategic stake sale. The brokerage house, holds the view that the company is expected to utilize the proceeds, to convert its second wet dock into a dry dock, by end of CY17. This is likely to double the capacity for PDO from current Rs.60 bn to Rs. 100 bn in terms of revenues. 

According to the Business Standard, September, 15, 2014:
To promote shipping industry, the government plans to come out with a ship building scheme to encourage India ship yards to bag foreign ship building orders. A Cabinet note with this regards has been prepared, minister for Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari said in his conference on 100 days of his ministry. 
At the CMP of Rs.38.75, it is a sure shot BUY for the long term (18 months perspective) with a price target of Rs.90.

Friday, September 26, 2014

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
The Nifty as expected got support at around 7850, during intra-day--this was mentioned to the Paid Groups during the market  hours. The Nifty was trading at that time at 7870. The Nifty closed the day at 7968 up 57 points. The risk taking Nifty traders might have money in this call of mine. 
Country Club (I) Ltd (Rs.12.68), which has established 205 properties of which over 55 are owned and 175 are franchised plus a global gateway via Country Vacations and RCI affiliation of 4000 resorts for its esteemed members, has probably formed a temporary bottom, as it bounced from the 21DEMA. The candle stick chart pattern is likely to get confirmed (of Bullish formation) in the coming days. The company is (Undivided) Andhra Pradesh based, where the property prices are shooting over the roof, especially in and around Vijayawada. The next target for the scrip is Rs.15. A break out above Rs.16.25, can take the scrip to around Rs.21-22. in the medium term. Moreover, Country Club India Ltd has recently informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on August 14, 2014, has recommended a Final dividend of 5% i.e. 10 paise on each Fully paid-up Equity Share of Rs.2 to the Non-promoters of the Company for the Financial Year 2013-14.
The following was sent to the Paid Groups during the market hours: 'Bhushan Steel Ltd has a debt of around Rs.40, 000 crores and it is planning to raise only Rs.1000 crores in consultation with lenders from sale and lease-back of critical assets. The share is still trading around Rs.106. These kinds of companies should be avoided even if they suddenly start hitting the Upper Circuits. However, speculative bets can always be taken with strict stop losses'.  The scrip closed at the Upper Circuits today (Rs.107). But as mentioned earlier, this is a pure speculative call and non-risk taking investors should not purchase such scrips. 
It seems the worst is over for PIPAVAV DEFENCE AND OFFSHORE ENG LTD. The stock covered the intra-day dips and closed flat at Rs.38.75, near the intra-day high of Rs.39.30. The company had AGM today. We could expect some positive news in the next week. Last month, the  government of India notified increase in FDI limit to 49% through approval route in the sector. The move is aimed at boosting domestic industry of the country, which imports up to 70% of its military hardware. FDI ceiling in the sensitive defence sector has been hiked from 26%, with the condition that the company seeking permission of the government for FDI up to 49% should be an Indian company owned and controlled by Indians. Further, foreign direct investment proposals above 49% will have to seek the approval of the Cabinet Committee on Security on "case to case basis, wherever it is likely to result in access to modern and state-of-the-art technology in the country," according to the press note of the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP). Besides, according to Live Mint, 23 September, 2014: "Uncertainty over the fate of subsidy payments for shipbuilders such as Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Co. Ltd, ABG Shipyard Ltd and Bharati Shipyard Ltd could lift soon, with the government looking to extend the payment timeline for a scheme which ended seven years ago. Extension will benefit shipyards that are still building ships under contracts signed when the scheme was on, and even for some which have already delivered ships but awaiting subsidy". Moreover, chartically speaking, the stock is likely to bounce from the oversold positions, in the next few trading sessions.
Resurgere Mines and Minerals Ltd (Rs.1.59) is getting unnecessarily sold off, even as the company is contemplating to start mining in its Soapstone Mine, from the next week and is seeking government's approval for the Iron Ore Mine in Yelwan Jugai, Maharashtra and Bauxite Mine in Satarda, Maharashtra.  The Company yet to start the mining activities in  Mahalmiriya, Maharashtra . The leaseholder has failed to his commitments and company has filed litigation against the leaseholder. There is no turnover since last two years in the Company except negligible turnover from the soapstone mine of the company situated at Udaipur (Rajasthan). So, there are no movement in the Trade Payable, Creditor for Capital Goods, Capital work in progress, Inventories, Trade Receivables, Inter Corporate deposits and Mine Deposits. Company is in process for confirmation and reconciliation with the parties. Meanwhile, Chief Minister of Goa, Mr.Manohar Parrikar said that issue of granting mining leases under the state's mining policy would be placed before the cabinet on September 30.
IVRCL Ltd was asked to be averaged (or fresh positions taken) at around Rs.15, during the day. The scrip closed at Rs.15.30.
There were media reports that ABG SHIPYARD LTD will now divert the bulk of Rs.13 bln working capital loan for completing its pending orders. The benefits might also go to its subsidiary, Western India Shipyard Ltd (Rs.1.83).

Thursday, September 25, 2014

NEW SCHEME FOR TRADERS
Photo: Getting You Rich
I am thinking of coming up with a new scheme where there would be scopes for monthly returns, on a regular basis. There traders should put a minimum seed capital of Rs.2 lakhs which will be played only in FUTURES market (not options). Any amount of profit generated would be taken out of the demat account on T+3 day and shared between you and my firm, in the ratio of 50:50. 

Hence, whether the market moves up or down, the money could be generated on a consistent basis. I think in this way, 5-10% return on the capital invested could be generated, per month. Any additional return would also be shared in the same ratio. 

Moreover, intra-day trades could be done in some scrips, like today J P Associates Ltd (RS.26) fell by more than 10%. These kinds of bullet trades in ONE DAY could make up for the whole month's income. The target should be to generate a minimum of 5-10% per month. If anyone is interested to take the risk, then he/she can mail me at: suman005s@rediffmail.com.
PM Narendra Modi's 'Make in India' pitch to extend red carpet for investors
Photo: The Bricks Post
Sep 25, 2014, NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will on Thursday roll out a red carpet to industrialists, both domestic and international, inviting them to make India a manufacturing hub that will help boost jobs and growth. 

Before he embarks on his high profile US visit slated from September 26-30, Modi will launch the 'Make in India' campaign at a mega event here on Thursday in the presence of leading industrialists and business leaders. 

The campaign is aimed at making India a manufacturing hub, and the government is pulling out all the stops for ensuring a smooth sailing for investors, by setting up a dedicated cell to answer queries of business entities within 72 hours. It will also closely monitor all regulatory processes to make them simple and reduce the burden of compliance. 

"The government is committed to chart out a new path, wherein business entities are extended red carpet welcome in a spirit of active cooperation. Invest India will act as the first reference point for guiding foreign investors on all aspects of regulatory and policy issues and to assist them in obtaining regulatory clearances," said an official statement.

Various prominent national and international industry leaders are likely to attend the programme to launch the campaign along with ministers, senior officials, ambassadors and opinion leaders. 

The government has identified 25 key sectors in which our country has the potential of becoming a world leader. The Prime Minister will be releasing separate brochures for these sectors along with a general brochure. 

The brochures covering sectors like automobiles, chemicals, IT, pharmaceuticals, textiles, ports, aviation, leather, tourism and hospitality, wellness, railways among others will provide details of growth drivers, investment opportunities, sector specific FDI and other policies and related agencies.

Investor facilitation cell will provide assistance to the foreign investors from the time of their arrival in the country to the time of their departure, with focus on green and advanced manufacturing and helping these companies to become an important part of the global value chain. 

The campaign will be launched at national as well as state level and in missions abroad. It will target top companies across sectors in identified countries. It also aims to identify select domestic companies having leadership in innovation and new technology for turning them into global champions. 

The initiative has its origin in the Prime Minister's Independence Day speech where he gave a clarion call to 'Make in India' and 'Zero Defect; Zero Effect' policy. 

A dedicated cell has been created through the web portal (www.makeinindia.com) to answer queries from business entities. While an exhaustive set of FAQs on this portal will help the investor find instant answers to their general queries, the back-end support team of the cell would be answering specific queries within 72 hours. 

A pro-active approach will be deployed to track visitors for their geographical location, interest and real-time user behaviour. Subsequent visits will be customised for the visitor based on the information collected. Visitors registered on the website or raising queries will be followed up with relevant information and newsletter.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Winning Strokes: Think Different
Pix Transmission Ltd was recommended in this blog around Rs.46-47, few weeks back, the scrip raced to Rs.70.40, on 19th September, 2014. If the scrip breaks Rs.63, on the downside, then it is time to book profits and exit the counter. 
As expected realty stocks declined and closed with losses--Housing Development & Infrastructure (Rs.89.85) (down 3.18%), D B Realty (CMP: Rs.73.20 down 5%), Anant Raj (CMP: Rs.57.15, down 6.77%), Sobha (CMP: Rs.426.25, down 1.42%) and Unitech (CMP: Rs.21.95, down 10.77%) declined. Yesterday, I sent a report from the Economic Times, to my Facebook account, which had the following news: "The rapid rise in the stock market since the new government was formed has taken the sheen off real estate, where investments have not only dropped but investors are trying to monetise their existing assets, creating a scare of price correction. While the stock market has risen by over 12% since May 26 when the government was sworn in, property values have either remained stagnant or dropped in several micro-markets across the country". We could see more corrections in these counters (except those are Telengana / Andhra Pradesh based like Prajay Enginners Syndicate Ltd, CMP: Rs.12.63) hence play with strict stop losses. 
Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd today touched Rs.13.40, before closing at Rs.12.63. The company has huge land bank in south India, whose prices are rising rapidly, after Vijayawada was declared the capital of Andhra Pradesh. 
Resurgere Mines and Minerals Ltd is getting sold down unnecessarily. The company is waiting for approval for some of its mining proposals, from the government of India. Today, it closed at Rs.1.70, down 3.41%.
I  reiterate again, in this kind of market, it would be too risky to trade, if you are NOT an  expert or a professional trader--it because the market is too volatile now. Also, no one comes to the stock market to get a capital gain of 20% per annum. If the fixed deposits are giving a return of 10-12% per year, then what is the need to come to the market for only additional 10% gain, after taking so much risk--only morons, will think in that way. Hence, either join the Paid Service or allow my team to trade on your behalf to generate money from the markets. You should have a minimum portfolio size of Rs.2 lakhs, if you want me to trade on  your behalf. Also, from now onwards, your demat accounts will be opened in my recommended brokerage houses only after you come-up with margin cheque of at least Rs.2 lakhs (Or give an affidavit from any court of India, that they would transfer shares worth 2 lakhs) and send in the required documents in advance. It is due to my experience, in dealing with some irresponsible investors / traders who put in me false positions, in front of Brokerage House Managements; either after sending them forms on their requests (which they never fill and send back) or after opening the demat accounts. From now on, I need to be a bit strict in such matters as a section of investing / trading fraternity, tends to take advantage of my simplicity--these people lack ethics (money is  made even by prostitutes and frauds). Moreover, if everyone thinks that he/she has become stock analyst after getting success in one or two scrips, then it would be a horrible proposition. It is NOT SO EASY to make money on a CONSISTENT BASIS from stock market--hence come out of that dream and be realistic. I have an experience of more than two decades (with sources across the sectors) but still make mistakes (sometimes)---therefore, if anyone thinks that they can do the same by taking some courses for 1-2 years or after reading messages in Money Control Message board or taking some tips from somewhere, then they are probably living in fools paradise. My Paid Service is not a TIPS providing exercise, but a complete guidance to make money from the markets. If you make losses also, then it can be covered up in these kinds of markets. But one has to  have trust......